Page 1 of 26 12311 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 10 of 258

Thread: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

  1. #1
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    12-13-17 @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,691

    Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Today, The Wall Street Journal reported:

    The nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said Tuesday the Obama administration's economic-stimulus plan has increased the number of employed Americans by between 1.4 million to 3.3 million during the second quarter.

    The CBO, in a report released Tuesday, said the Obama administration's American Recovery and Reinvestment Act has lowered the unemployment rate by up to 1.8% and raised the level of gross domestic product by up to 4.5%.
    Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says - WSJ.com

    For those who are interested, the full CBO report can be found at:

    http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/117xx/doc...08-24-ARRA.pdf

    Note: One may have to cut and paste the CBO's URL in one's address bar in order to access the report.

    CBO's estimates of the stimulus plan's effects in 2010 Q2 were:

    - The stimulus raised real GDP by 1.7% to 4.5%
    - The stimulus lowered the unemployment rate by 0.7 percentage points to 1.8 percentage points
    - The stimulus increased the number of employed persons by 1.4 million to 3.3 million
    - The stimulus increased the number of full-time equivalent jobs by 2.0 million to 4.8 million vs. what would otherwise have been the case

    In any case, this latest assessment should provide ample ammunition for a continuation of the debate concerning what contribution the economic stimulus made.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 08-25-10 at 11:27 AM.

  2. #2
    Sage
    Boo Radley's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Last Seen
    11-22-17 @ 04:22 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Liberal
    Posts
    36,858

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Likely true, but still too many unemployed for it to help hiim politically yet.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

  3. #3
    Sage

    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    USA
    Last Seen
    Today @ 01:16 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    9,812

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    While I don't think much of the stimulus should have gone forward and the cost effectiveness may not have been the greatest, I have no doubt it added jobs. How could spending some hundreds of bilions of dollars not create jobs?

    Huh. I can't edit out that second "greatest". Weird.
    Last edited by buck; 08-25-10 at 11:36 AM.

  4. #4
    Battle Ready
    Grim17's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Southwestern U.S.
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:10 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    24,139
    Blog Entries
    20

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Here are some things that should be pointed out from the CBO's report:

    First, some of the jobs included in the reports might have existed even without the stimulus package, with employees working on the same activities or other activities.
    This seems like a distinction that should have been made prior to issuing this report. How can the CBO claim the stimulus created a certain number of jobs without determining if it actually did or not?

    Although CBO has examined data on output and employment during the period since ARRA’s enactment, those data are not as helpful in determining ARRA’s economic effects as might be supposed because isolating the effects would require knowing what path the economy would have taken in the absence of the law. Because that path cannot be observed, the new data add only limited information about ARRA’s impact.
    So what they're saying is, they have no clue if the economy would have been better or worse without the stimulus. WTF?

    Since the CBO only issues reports when they are specifically requested, I would say that this report is nothing more than an exercise in political posturing. It's only real purpose is to give the administration some form of justification for spending 800 billion dollars that they didn't have in the first place.

    .
    Last edited by Grim17; 08-25-10 at 01:31 PM.

  5. #5
    Sage
    Renae's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2007
    Location
    San Antonio Texas
    Last Seen
    10-23-17 @ 10:14 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    38,972
    Blog Entries
    15

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    How many of those were "Census" jobs?
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



  6. #6
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    12-13-17 @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,691

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Grim17 View Post
    So what they're saying is, they have no clue if the economy would have been better or worse without the stimulus. WTF?

    Since the CBO only issues reports when they are specifically requested, I would say that this report is nothing more than an exercise in political posturing.
    Three quick points:

    1. CBO used "various mathematical models" to assess revenue/spending-related effects to gain an understanding of the fiscal stimulus program's macroeconomic impact. Additional data related to output and employment was not helpful in assessing the macroeconomic impact for the reasons CBO stated. Moreover, CBO has no doubts that the economy would have been worse without the stimulus, as it concluded that the stimulus provided a minimum of a 1.7% boost to real GDP and 0.7 percentage point reduction to the unemployment rate.

    2. CBO's findings are reasonably similar to research that was recently released by economists Alan Blinder and Mark Zandi, who used separate modeling. They found that the fiscal stimulus boosted 2010 real GDP by 3.4% (CBO's estimate: 1.7% to 4.5%), kept the unemployment rate 1.5 percentage points lower (CBO's estimate: 0.7 to 1.8 percentage points lower), and added almost 2.7 million jobs to U.S. payrolls (CBO's estimate: 1.4 million to 3.3 million jobs).

    3. CBO is non-partisan. It responds to requests from Democratic and Republican Members of the House and Senate.

  7. #7
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    12-13-17 @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,691

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    How many of those were "Census" jobs?
    CBO focused on a macroeconomic level, not microeconomic one.

  8. #8
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    12-13-17 @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,691

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Interestingly enough--and these numbers will probably ignite partisan passions--CBO also provided estimates as to the provisions that were most stimulative vs. those that were least stimulative. Higher multipliers = greater stimulative impact e.g., a multiplier of 1.5 means that every $1.00 of stimulus spending generated $1.50 of economic output. Hence, a 1.00 multiplier is neutral, as every $1.00 of stimulus spending would lead to a $1.00 increase in output.

    Mean Multiplier (average of the low and high estimate):
    Purchases of goods/services by the federal government: 1.75
    Transfer payments to state/local governments for infrastructure: 1.75
    Transfer payments to individuals: 1.45
    Transfer payments to state/local governments for other purposes: 1.25
    Two-year tax cuts for lower- and middle-income people: 1.05
    One-time payments to retirees: 0.65
    Extension of first-time homebuyer credit: 0.55
    One-year tax cut for higher income people: 0.40
    Corporate tax breaks: 0.20

    What does this mean?

    If the federal government chooses to pursue another stimulus package, something that cannot be ruled out, though I don't believe such a package is needed right now, it should focus on high multiplier items and completely avoid low multiplier ones. That way, each additional dollar of stimulus would have greater bang for the buck and a smaller package would be needed than if the stimulus package diverts funding to low- or even very low-multiplier items.

  9. #9
    Slayer of the DP Newsbot
    danarhea's Avatar
    Join Date
    Aug 2005
    Location
    Houston, TX
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:54 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    39,756

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    IMHO, any news of upticks or downticks on a per quarter basis are not going to say much for the big picture, as employment is going to be depressed for many years to come.
    The ghost of Jack Kevorkian for President's Physician: 2016

  10. #10
    Battle Ready
    Grim17's Avatar
    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Location
    Southwestern U.S.
    Last Seen
    Today @ 12:10 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    24,139
    Blog Entries
    20

    Re: Stimulus Boosted Jobs in 2nd Quarter, CBO Says

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    3. CBO is non-partisan. It responds to requests from Democratic and Republican Members of the House and Senate.
    Correct, but it isn't just told to do a report on something and they do it. They are given parameters by the ones who make the request. They are told what to include in their reports, what to omit, and often told which sources they can use as a basis for them.

    The CBO is not allowed to broaden the scope of a report, even if in doing so, it would significantly alter their findings. That's why their reports include so many "what if's" and explanations for their findings.

    We saw this with Obamacare. Their reports prior to it's passing that were requested by the administration and democrats on capitol hill, painted a very rosy economic picture for America if the legislation were enacted. After the bill was passed, they were requested to do several other, more broad studies on the Obamacare bill, and every one that has been released so far, has contradicted or greatly reduced the positive benefits they reported initially. That's because their scope was severely limited before by the administration.
    Last edited by Grim17; 08-25-10 at 02:52 PM.

Page 1 of 26 12311 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •