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Thread: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

  1. #21
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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    Then you simply don't understand the meaning of a double standard.
    In the case when there was no hostility coming from Iran, it would have been a double standard, but that is not the case, and it cannot be described as such.
    It's not relevant, Israel does not want other nations to get nuclear weapons while it possesses some of them.

    Nuclear weapons are a threat to everyone, not only to Israel.

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by GayLibertarian View Post
    The problem with an Israeli strike is:

    (a.) Mr. Obama's current anti-Israel stance. Israel could loose loan guarantees from a White House that is pro-Arab (and therefore anti-Semitic).

    (b.) Another, endless United Nations "investigation" that will find Israel "guilty of war crimes".

    Mr. Bolton was America's last great bullwark against pan-Arab/Islamofascism. Now we are stuck with an anti-Semitic White House and an anti-Semitic liberal mainstream press who will find Israel guilty, regardless.
    Bolton is a war-monger and has never seen a war he didn't like.


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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    I don't agree with Mr. Bolton's dire assessment for two reasons:

    1) Russia plans to take precautions that will limit the risk of Iran's using the fuel to pursue illicit nuclear activities. Haaretz reported, "But Western fears that the Bushehr project could help Iran develop a nuclear weapon were lessened when Moscow reached an agreement with Tehran obliging it to return spent fuel to Russia. Weapons-grade plutonium can be derived from spent fuel rods." Russia would know whether the rods have been returned or otherwise tampered with and would be in a position to cease any additional fuel shipments.

    2) If Israel believes it is confronted with an existential threat, it can and would act to try to neutralize that threat and it would not be constrained by artificial timelines.

    My guess is that the critical threshold for a strike-no strike decision probably lies a year or two in the future. At the same time, alternative methods will need to be examined given the risks and impact of possible military action, so military action is not assured.
    Of course Obama's state department is going to say that there isn't any danger. They've made zero effort to prevent Iran from pressing forward with their nuke program and admitting that there's a danger would be admitting what most of us already know: they failed.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by pbrauer View Post
    Bolton is a war-monger and has never seen a war he didn't like.
    Actually, he's one of the most common sense diplomatic figures in the history of this country. He did an awesome job fighting off the UN's efforts to pass an international treaty banning private firearm ownership.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    Of course Obama's state department is going to say that there isn't any danger. They've made zero effort to prevent Iran from pressing forward with their nuke program and admitting that there's a danger would be admitting what most of us already know: they failed.
    IMO, the sanctions regime that has been pursued is largely ineffectual. Robust sanctions that would have dealt with Iran's ability to export crude oil/buy refined products on the world market would have a better chance at success. But to achieve such sanctions, the U.S. almost certainly would need to provide some quid pro quo to Russia and China given that there are some divergences between China's, Russia's, and the United States' interests.

    In any case, there is nothing magical about the 8/21 date. If Israel believes it is confronted with an existential threat, it will respond appropriately to try to address that threat. Dates will be irrelevant. But, I suspect, neither Israel nor the U.S. believes that the situation has reached that critical point.

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    From today's edition of The Jerusalem Post:

    Iran expert Ilan Berman of the American Foreign Policy Council said that the uranium enrichment plants are the real backbone of Iranian efforts and expenditures to get a nuclear weapons capability, and he suspected that they, rather than Bushehr, would be Israel’s primary targets in any attack.

    “It’s not at all clear that Bushehr would be a high value target because it’s only tangentially related to any conceivable Iranian nuclear weapons program,” he said. “My suspicion is this isn’t a game changer. This isn’t going to give Iran enough fissile material for a bomb overnight.”

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    IMO, the sanctions regime that has been pursued is largely ineffectual. Robust sanctions that would have dealt with Iran's ability to export crude oil/buy refined products on the world market would have a better chance at success. But to achieve such sanctions, the U.S. almost certainly would need to provide some quid pro quo to Russia and China given that there are some divergences between China's, Russia's, and the United States' interests.

    In any case, there is nothing magical about the 8/21 date. If Israel believes it is confronted with an existential threat, it will respond appropriately to try to address that threat. Dates will be irrelevant. But, I suspect, neither Israel nor the U.S. believes that the situation has reached that critical point.
    What would 'Robust sanctions' constitute?

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    IMO, the sanctions regime that has been pursued is largely ineffectual.
    Why would there be sanctions? Because international law has to be applied to certain states and not to others?

    There were many ways to stop Iran from (legally) enriching its uranium, one way to do it was a swap (they give their 1% uranium and we give them uranium enriched to 20%, so that they don't need the enrichment plants) and I think we have been very close to a deal several time.

    But threatening Iran or bombing them will only make things worse, that gives them a huge incentive to actually start trying to get nukes (which are a defensive weapon). Just like the Iraqi nuclear program, it was purely civilian and there was no way Iraq could actually build its own bombs, they only started to think about that after the Israeli raid.

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Dejavu as the say. But unlike Iraq, Iran can bite back and the consequences will be global.
    PeteEU

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    Re: Israel has '8 days' to hit Iran nuclear site: Bolton

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Dejavu as the say. But unlike Iraq, Iran can bite back and the consequences will be global.
    I don't think Iran is much more powerful than Iraq, but that's gonna be a huge chaos, the war would extend from Israel to Afghanistan.

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