Robert Gates, the Pentagon chief, has warned President Barack Obama in a secret "wake-up call" memo that the White House has no effective policy for dealing with a nuclear Iran.
There is a policy for trying to prevent Iran's becoming a nuclear weapons-capable state. Whether that policy is effective or not is a separate matter. Secretary Gates was looking ahead and commenting with respect to a scenario under which Iran had attained a nuclear weapons capability.
The article also notes:
Since the three-page memo, written in January, a series of new options have been developed for Mr. Obama, including military means for dealing with Tehran if it should acquire a nuclear weapon, The New York Times reported.
My guess is that the new options would emphasize deterrence but do include military plans to safeguard vital U.S. interests in the region. Situations that would lead to a U.S. military response could include an Iranian attempt to block the transit of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, an attack on U.S. allies (e.g., Israel) or key international energy suppliers (e.g., Saudi Arabia), among some others.
I would simply be stunned if either the US or Israel militarily attacked Iran outright. I estimate a successful preemption would require at least two weeks of intense 24/7 air strikes. Special Ops on the ground would be required along Iran's coastline to keep the Persian Gulf open to oil tanker traffic.
I don't think Obama has the balls to do what would be required. I don't think Israel has the military capability to do what would be required. If either military should attack Iran, the other will certainly be sucked into the resulting fray whether they want it or not. Due to this piggy-back effect, I don't think either would act unilaterally. They would both know well before anyone else.
A tipoff would be any large scale shuttling of diplomatic/military personnel between Washington and Jerusalem.
Or... if I am suddenly and mysteriously re-activated
אשכנזי היהודי • Белый Россию
The Prof...do you think if you keep repeating already disposed of arguments, they will magically become true?