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Thread: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by ric27 View Post
    A lot of mumbo jumbo...

    The point is your Chinese product costs are so much less because of a lot of factors that weight the balance. Depending on the product, they may use slave labor. We don't. Even paid labor is paid far less than what our workers are paid. Communist China provides "free medical care" and "retirement" benefits that would be unacceptable to our people. What we provide costs more, but is superior. The fact is, it would be illegal to run a business in the US the way it is run in China.
    They soon will find it impossible to pay those healthcare and retirement benefits. They will have one of the oldest populations in the world, and the numbers will be staggering.
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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    They soon will find it impossible to pay those healthcare and retirement benefits. They will have one of the oldest populations in the world, and the numbers will be staggering.
    Yea, we should execute all people over 60 to save money!

    On a serious note, Chine overtaking Japan as the worlds #2 economy was bound to happen, just as China will overtake the US soonish too. I mean 1.5 billion people is one hell of a market, and starting a near zero.. it can only go up!
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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    On a serious note, Chine overtaking Japan as the worlds #2 economy was bound to happen, just as China will overtake the US soonish too.
    FWIW, Goldman Sachs estimates that China's economy will surpass the U.S. economy by 2027.

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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    FWIW, Goldman Sachs estimates that China's economy will surpass the U.S. economy by 2027.
    Hmmm it's certainly possible. But alot can happen in that time. China's prosperity is dependent on a massive growth rate. Fueled by every single natural recourse the world has.

    From water, to zinc, to copper, to steel. If these things rise in price sharply as is likely to happen in the next few years, their economic growth will fall dramatically. Such a dramatic fall in growth could lead to huge changes in China quite possibly political and social ones, not to mention a possible destablization in population because of the severe population control methods instituted in the past.

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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    Hmmm it's certainly possible. But alot can happen in that time.
    Yes, it can. For example:

    China’s property market is beginning a “collapse” that will hit the nation’s banking system, said Kenneth Rogoff, the Harvard University professor and former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund....

    Chinese authorities intensified a crackdown on property speculation after announcing the economy expanded at an 11.9 percent annual pace in the first quarter, the most since 2007. Measures have included raising minimum mortgage rates and down payment ratios for some home purchases. Officials may also start a trial property tax, according to state media.

    Sales Dive

    The efforts have contributed to a slump in real-estate sales, while prices continue to climb. The value of property sales dropped 25 percent in May from the previous month. The increase in prices, at an annual 12.4 percent in May according to a government survey of 70 cities, was down from a 12.8 percent advance in April.

    “You’re starting to see that collapse in property and it’s going to hit the banking system,” said Rogoff, 57, who also serves on the Group of 30, a panel of central bankers, finance officials and academics led by former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker. “They have a lot of tools and some very competent management, but it’s not easy.”

    China Property Market Beginning Collapse That May Hit Banks, Rogoff Says - Bloomberg
    Нава́льный 2018

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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    FWIW, Goldman Sachs estimates that China's economy will surpass the U.S. economy by 2027.
    Had heard 2032 but okay. But there is always a big "but"... if the political stability of the country can be maintained. This goes for any country of course.
    PeteEU

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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Quote Originally Posted by Jetboogieman View Post
    Hmmm it's certainly possible. But alot can happen in that time. China's prosperity is dependent on a massive growth rate. Fueled by every single natural recourse the world has.

    From water, to zinc, to copper, to steel. If these things rise in price sharply as is likely to happen in the next few years, their economic growth will fall dramatically. Such a dramatic fall in growth could lead to huge changes in China quite possibly political and social ones, not to mention a possible destablization in population because of the severe population control methods instituted in the past.
    I fully agree. There are many variables that could lead to China's either becoming the largest economy sooner or later than the Goldman Sachs estimate. If past experience with rapidly developing nations is representative, China will more than likely face at least one very significant economic crisis down the road. Whether China's regional housing bubbles or a future energy shortage or even a U.S. debt/currency crisis or some other mechanism triggers that potential crisis remains to be seen. But the road from developing status to developed status has historically been a very bumpy one.

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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    Well it's no wonder. We keep buying their crap. Meanwhile their people work for little money, have little savings, and are taken advantage of by the government at every opportunity they have. Typically we'd have sanctions against such countries. But where the hell else will we get lead painted children's toys this cheap!?
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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    There are a lot of signs that China is about to have a very serious fall in their economy. This will probably be extremely painful and cause social unrest including what will probably be another Tiananmen-type scenario. However, it will be a flash in the pan and likely spark off a new period of reform.
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    Re: China overtakes Japan as world's #2 economy

    China's socialized medicine is rather poor and most people would rather go to the private medical centers if they can afford it. Pensions supplied by the government are rather poor, only those that have them from the SOE's they worked for are well taken care off.


    Lastly GPD (ppp) is real. The cost of living in parts of China outside the Shanghai, Beijieng, and Hong Kong is drastically lower then that of the US or Canada. In what are the hinterlands of China, Jilin for example apart from hotels, western food like McDonalds, life costs 1/3-1/5 that of Canada. Bus's are $0.20 vs $1.8 CAD ( side note buses running in cities seem to be privately owned), a taxi ride is 1/5 that of Canada.

    Will China have a few economic crisis's over the years, of course, will China eventually overtake the US in GDP, yes. I think it will be faster then most predict. This is based on GDP per Capita reasons. Despite a rather high GDP number, per capita it is still quite low and has plenty of room to grow drastically
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