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Thread: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    IMO, it seems that there is some misunderstanding as to the gravity of adverse employment situation. For May 2010 (latest date for which job openings data is available), there were:

    - 3.206 million job openings nationwide
    - 14.973 million unemployed persons

    That's just under 4.7 unemployed persons for every job opening. Even if there were a perfect skills match and every unemployed person could fill every job opening (not possible), the vast majority would remain unemployed, as there are too few job openings. Not surprisingly, 45.5% of unemployed persons have been out of work for 27 weeks or more and the mean duration of unemployment has risen to 35.2 weeks.

    Given that there is no magic policy that could dramatically increase the number of job openings, it makes good policy sense to extend the unemployment benefits. Preferably cost offsets would be found, but there are much bigger programs (tax and spending) up for consideration in coming months and at the end of the year. If one wants to make an aggressive stand for fiscal responsibility, it would make far more sense to fight the budget battles over those programs. My guess is that the political courage will be lacking when those programs are under consideration. Indeed, almost all of those who filibustered against the extension voted to discard extremely modest Medicare cost-savings measures to increase reimbursements to physicians.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 07-21-10 at 10:44 AM.

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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    IMO, it seems that there is some misunderstanding as to the gravity of adverse employment situation. For May 2010 (latest date for which job openings data is available), there were:

    - 3.206 million job openings nationwide
    - 14.973 million unemployed persons


    That's just under 4.7 unemployed persons for every job opening. Even if there were a perfect skills match and every unemployed person could fill every job opening (not possible), the vast majority would remain unemployed, as there are too few job openings. Not surprisingly, 45.5% of unemployed persons have been out of work for 27 weeks or more and the mean duration of unemployment has risen to 35.2 weeks.

    Given that there is no magic policy that could dramatically increase the number of job openings, it makes good policy sense to extend the unemployment benefits. Preferably cost offsets would be found, but there are much bigger programs (tax and spending) up for consideration in coming months and at the end of the year. If one wants to make an aggressive stand for fiscal responsibility, it would make far more sense to fight the budget battles over those programs. My guess is that the political courage will be lacking when those programs are under consideration. Indeed, almost all of those who filibustered against the extension voted to discard extremely modest Medicare cost-savings measures to increase reimbursements to physicians.
    The bolded area's of donsutherlands post are extremely important to understand.

    Are there jobs out there, yes, but no where near the number of people looking for jobs. Meaning if every job opening was filled tommorow, there would still be a massive amount of people unemployed
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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by Gabriel View Post
    Bleh.. George Bush inherited a budget surplus and if he had continued on that track I large portion of the debt could have been paid off. The Democrats were not in deficit spending it's called a budget surplus. When the republicans gained power under Bush.. Then he went on to double the nations debt in the course of 8 years. No spin needed when you have the facts.

    A projected surplus. This changed with 911.It was the GOP majority that caused this budget projected surplus. Since the dems took control in 2007 they have helped cause a recession and increased the debt by historic proportions

    Obama has increased the debt more than any president in this time period.

    Answer why the dems and Obama are aginst paying for this and demanding it increase the debt. What happened to pay go?

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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    A projected surplus. This changed with 911.It was the GOP majority that caused this budget projected surplus. Since the dems took control in 2007 they have helped cause a recession and increased the debt by historic proportions
    Obama has increased the debt more than any president in this time period.

    Answer why the dems and Obama are aginst paying for this and demanding it increase the debt. What happened to pay go?
    Ok What caused the recession?

    What did the democrats do in 2007 caused the recession?
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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    A projected surplus. This changed with 911.It was the GOP majority that caused this budget projected surplus. Since the dems took control in 2007 they have helped cause a recession and increased the debt by historic proportions

    Obama has increased the debt more than any president in this time period.

    Answer why the dems and Obama are aginst paying for this and demanding it increase the debt. What happened to pay go?
    I don't believe any president controls the economy. But Clinton was part of the governance that led to a surplus. Yes, so was the republican congress. Both were there. And it was Gore who suggested that we didn't know the future, (like a 9/11) and that it would be responsible to keep the surplus for hard times (like we sometimes do in our personal finanaces). However, Bush played candy giver and spent millions to return money to us. I don't know anyone who doesn't like a little money, but then there was 9/11. Was Gore right?

    Even with that, Bush and the republicans decided to fight two wars and cut taxes. There was no asking for us to pay for these reckless endevors. No esponsible effort to pay for them.

    So, while I accept that both parties lack fiscal restraint, I don't accept that you can only blame one party. Perhaps the best answer is a divided government. While the push and pull may not make radical change possible, it may well keep both sides more in check. Just a thought.

    AUSTAN GOOLSBEE: I think the world vests too much power, certainly in the president, probably in Washington in general for its influence on the economy, because most all of the economy has nothing to do with the government.

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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Ok What caused the recession?

    What did the democrats do in 2007 caused the recession?
    Their prescence alone and the fact they were protecting Fanny and freddy. What policies did they do at that time to improve the economy?

    If you look at GDP the recession did not start in 2007. In the past if 2 quarters of GDP were negative you were in a recession. That was not the case in 2007. Was this called a recession early to blame the GOP for it?

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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Their prescence alone and the fact they were protecting Fanny and freddy. What policies did they do at that time to improve the economy?

    If you look at GDP the recession did not start in 2007. In the past if 2 quarters of GDP were negative you were in a recession. That was not the case in 2007. Was this called a recession early to blame the GOP for it?
    So the democrats by merely being elected caused the recession, wow the democrats sure have power dont they.

    What caused the recession then? What few issues in the US caused the recession? Perhaps the collapsing of the housing bubble, a bubble that was forming in 2003 and really took off in 2004-06. Perhaps the spike in oil prices as well, perhaps the collapse of the banking industry (due in part to the bursting of the housing bubble)

    Of course the democrats in 2007 are responsible for a housing bubble that started in 2003-04.
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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    So you can now collect unemployment for 2 1/2 years? LOL, wow.

    That's not unemployment. That's welfare.
    I was layed off in 2002. If they haven't changed it since then, 1 year of unemployment insurance payments equals 6 months of checks. So, 15 mos. is the total amount of time for current recipients.

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    Re: Unemployment benefits extension clears hurdle

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    So the democrats by merely being elected caused the recession, wow the democrats sure have power dont they.

    What caused the recession then? What few issues in the US caused the recession? Perhaps the collapsing of the housing bubble, a bubble that was forming in 2003 and really took off in 2004-06. Perhaps the spike in oil prices as well, perhaps the collapse of the banking industry (due in part to the bursting of the housing bubble)

    Of course the democrats in 2007 are responsible for a housing bubble that started in 2003-04.
    I notice you ignore most of my post

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