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Thread: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Giant Plumes of Oil Found Under Gulf of Mexico - NYTimes.com

    Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given.
    Guess not so over hyped..
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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Models, in all fields, can be and have been horribly wrong at times. Given that this might be the first deep sea leak of its kind, I don't think one can have much confidence in the modeling, which almost certainly was built from cases that were different from the current one.

    For example, an article in today's edition of The New York Times reported:

    Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given...

    The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.


    Personally, I think it's too soon to know one way or the other just how bad the overall impact will be. The extent of the oil leak, winds, among other factors, will tell the story.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 05-16-10 at 09:24 AM.

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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    How much oil is naturally seeped on any given day in the ocean?


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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    How much oil is naturally seeped on any given day in the ocean?


    j-mac
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    How much rain falls on the earth on any given day?

    Now imagine if 50% of all that rain falls on your city rather then the rest of the world, is your city going to have a problem.


    The problem is not that oil is going into the ocean, the problem is that is concentrated in one geographic location
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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    jmac


    How much rain falls on the earth on any given day?

    Now imagine if 50% of all that rain falls on your city rather then the rest of the world, is your city going to have a problem.


    The problem is not that oil is going into the ocean, the problem is that is concentrated in one geographic location

    Hey LT, what's up?

    Don't get me wrong, I think that the BP thing is a disaster, and it will take much effort, many man hours to clean up. And BP should foot the bill.

    However, we now have forces out there looking to kill fossil fuels, with nothing in place to replace them based on one disaster, in the gulf. It is insane.


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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    My Way News - Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone



    I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that the doomsday predictions about this spill will eventually turn out to have been overhyped.
    What? There's a giant blob of black goo lurking just under the surface and we don't know WHERE. Clearly the oil is planning its revenge.
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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Hey LT, what's up?

    Don't get me wrong, I think that the BP thing is a disaster, and it will take much effort, many man hours to clean up. And BP should foot the bill.

    However, we now have forces out there looking to kill fossil fuels, with nothing in place to replace them based on one disaster, in the gulf. It is insane.


    j-mac
    I would think it would be prudent to find out why this happened before allowing more drilling this deep. That way they can install more precautionary procedures and equipment on the rigs, to limit the chances of this occuring again. A blowout on land is not an issue as it is relatively easily fixed, or even at shallow depths where divers can get to the well head. This is very deep and as we have seen very hard to fix after the fact.


    The direct clean up costs are only one cost of this. The fishermen without work, the tourist business without tourists also amount to millions of dollars in lost revenue. Imagine if this occured on the Florida coast during Spring break, how much business Florida would lose in tourism
    Last edited by Lord Tammerlain; 05-16-10 at 01:04 PM.
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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Quote Originally Posted by The Uncola View Post
    It takes a special sort of willful blindness to buy this nonsense.
    Well, you certainly convinced me!

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Models, in all fields, can be and have been horribly wrong at times. Given that this might be the first deep sea leak of its kind, I don't think one can have much confidence in the modeling, which almost certainly was built from cases that were different from the current one.

    For example, an article in today's edition of The New York Times reported:

    Scientists are finding enormous oil plumes in the deep waters of the Gulf of Mexico, including one as large as 10 miles long, 3 miles wide and 300 feet thick in spots. The discovery is fresh evidence that the leak from the broken undersea well could be substantially worse than estimates that the government and BP have given...

    The plumes are depleting the oxygen dissolved in the gulf, worrying scientists, who fear that the oxygen level could eventually fall so low as to kill off much of the sea life near the plumes.


    Personally, I think it's too soon to know one way or the other just how bad the overall impact will be. The extent of the oil leak, winds, among other factors, will tell the story.
    Quote Originally Posted by Deuce View Post
    What? There's a giant blob of black goo lurking just under the surface and we don't know WHERE. Clearly the oil is planning its revenge.
    Of course models can go wrong and of course there are other things that could turn out to be terrible. My point is just that this doesn't automatically mean the end of the world, as some have claimed. As the article notes, the Ixtoc leak appears to have been substantially larger than this one and continued on for 9 months. The eventual impact of that leak was far smaller than was originally anticipated.
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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    I would think it would be prudent to find out why this happened before allowing more drilling this deep. That way they can install more precautionary procedures and equipment on the rigs, to limit the chances of this occuring again. A blowout on land is not an issue as it is relatively easily fixed, or even at shallow depths where divers can get to the well head. This is very deep and as we have seen very hard to fix after the fact.

    I think that is obvious, and is being tackled as they are moving ahead with their efforts. I remember hearing that some device that is supposed to cap the well in this sort of event failed. And that should be fixed. But Stop all deep water drilling, or exploration? nah, that is an over reaction I think.


    The direct clean up costs are only one cost of this. The fishermen without work, the tourist business without tourists also amount to millions of dollars in lost revenue. Imagine if this occured on the Florida coast during Spring break, how much business Florida would lose in tourism

    No doubt. I am just glad that we have the know how to clean this up and move forward.


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    Re: Where's the oil? Model suggests much may be gone

    Yeah, it's just a little spill, we'll get it cleaned up. No Problem, oil is great and we shouldn't let s little oil spillage here and there stop us from, drill baby drill...

    1967

    March 18 - UNITED KINGDOM - The Torrey Canyon ran aground off Cornwall spilling 80,000 tonnes (919,000 barrels) of crude.


    1970

    March 20 - SWEDEN - At least 438,000 barrels of oil spilled in a collision involving the Othello in Tralhavet Bay.


    1972

    December 19 - OMAN - After a collision with Brazilian tanker Horta Barbosa the South Korean tanker Sea Star spilled about 840,000 barrels of crude into the Gulf of Oman.


    1976

    December 15 - USA - The Argo Merchant ran aground off Nantucket spilling 183,000 barrels of oil and causing a slick 160 km (100 miles) long and 97 km wide.


    1977

    February 25 - PACIFIC - The Liberian-registered Hawaiian Patriot caught fire in the Northern Pacific spilling 723,000 barrels.


    1978

    March 16 - FRANCE - About 1.6 million barrels of crude spilled after the Amoco Cadiz ran aground near Portsall in France's worst ever tanker accident. The resulting slick eventually covered 125 miles of Breton coast.


    1979

    June 3 - MEXICO - An estimated 140 million gallons of oil spilled from an exploratory well in the Gulf of Mexico, 80 km NW of Ciudad del Carmen, Campeche.

    July 19 - TRINIDAD & TOBAGO - About 2.2 million barrels of crude spilled after a collision off Tobago between the Atlantic Empress and the Aegean Captain.


    1983

    August 6 - SOUTH AFRICA - Fire broke out on the Spanish tanker Castillo de Bellver and 1.8 million barrels of light crude burnt off the coast at Cape Town.


    1989

    March 24 - USA - The Exxon Valdez hit rocks in Prince William Sound spilling some 240,000 barrels of crude oil onto Alaskan shores.

    December 19 - MOROCCO - After explosions and a fire Iranian tanker Kharg-5 was abandoned spilling 70,000 tonnes of crude oil, endangering the coast and oyster beds at Oualidia.


    1990

    February 7 - USA - The tanker, American Trader, leaked 300,000 gallons of crude from a gash in the hull causing an oil slick 22 km long polluting Bosa Chica, one of southern California's
    biggest nature reserves.


    1991

    January 26 - KUWAIT - An estimated 240 million gallons of oil were spilled from terminals, tankers and oil wells during the final phase of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

    May 28 - ANGOLA/LIBERIA - A Liberian-registered supertanker, ABT Summer, leaked oil after an explosion off Angola causing an oil slick 17 nautical miles by three.


    1992

    March 2 - UZBEKISTAN - An estimated 88 million gallons of oil spilled from an oil well at Fergana Valley.

    September 19 - INDONESIA - Liberian-registered tanker Nagasaki Spirit collided with container Ocean Blessing in the Malacca Straits spilling some 12,000 tonnes of crude.

    December 3 - SPAIN - Greek tanker Aegean Sea ran aground and broke in two near La Coruna spilling most of its 80,000 tons cargo of oil.
    1993

    January 5 -- UNITED KINGDOM - Oil poured on to the coast of northern Scotland's Shetland Islands after the 89,000-ton Liberian-registered Braer hit rocks in heavy seas. The tanker carried 84,500 tons of crude oil. A huge oil slick stretched 25 miles (40 km) up the coast.

    January 21 -- SINGAPORE / INDONESIA / MALAYSIA - The 255,312-ton Singapore-registered tanker Maersk Navigator collided with the empty tanker Sanko Honour in the Andaman Sea en route from Oman to Japan. It was carrying a cargo of nearly 2 million barrels of oil. Its ruptured port side leaked burning oil and spread a slick up to 35 miles (56 km) long off Sumatra drifting towards India's Nicobar Islands.

    February 11 -- NETHERLANDS - Up to 30,000 seabirds were feared killed by a paraffin oil slick thought to have been discharged by a passing ship during the past two weeks. It was the worst oil spill off the Dutch coast in five years.

    March 9 -- GERMANY/POLAND - The wreck of the Jan Heweliusz, a Polish ferry which sank in the Baltic off Germany on January 14, began leaking oil. The ship was estimated to have up to 80 tons of fuel on board.

    June 3 -- BELGIUM / UNITED KINGDOM - Seven crewmen from a British tanker, the British Trent, burned to death in a blazing sea of petrol about 15 miles (24km) off Ostend after a collision with a Panamanian bulk carrier in thick fog. Two other crewmen were missing and presumed dead. Belgian environmental officials and the ship's owner, British Petroleum, played down pollution dangers. The tanker was loaded with 24,000 tons of petrol, which poured out of a hole in the port bow.

    August 19 -- FRANCE - An oil slick off the French Riviera after a collision between a nuclear submarine and a supertanker was brought under control with no danger to beaches. The collision on August 17 caused two spills, one off Fos-sur-Mer and one farther out.

    October 15 -- GREECE - Oil leaked from the Greek tanker Iliad killed wildlife and destroyed fish farms in the bay of Pylos. A three-mile-long (4.8 km) oil slick was caused when the tanker ran aground off the island of Spaktiria on October 9.

    1994

    January 7 -- PUERTO RICO - The Morris J. Furhman, a barge carrying about 1.5 million gallons of fuel oil, went aground off the northern side of the capital city harbor. 750,000 gallons of heavy fuel oil had been spilled and had spread to cover a six-mile (9.6 km) stretch of shore. Conado Beach, the Conado lagoon and San Juan Bay were all polluted.

    March 6 -- THAILAND - About 105,670 gallons of diesel fuel spilled into the sea some four miles (6.4 km) off the eastern Sriracha coast after a chartered oil tanker and an unidentified cargo ship collided. The tanker, the Visahakit 5, was carrying about 1.06 million gallons of diesel and liquefied petroleum gas.

    March 16 -- TURKEY - A cleanup effort was begun to scoop patches of crude from the Bosphorus waterway and remove oil washed onto shore after a fiery collision on March 13 between the tanker Nassia and the freighter Shipbroker, both Cypriot-flagged. The accident, the worst in the Bosphorus in 15 years, killed 29 crewmen.

    March 31 -- UNITED ARAB EMIRATES - 15,900 tons of crude oil leaked into the Arabian Sea after the Panamanian-flagged supertanker Seki spilled the crude 10 miles (16 km) off the UAE port of Fujairah, just outside the Gulf, when it collided with the UAE tanker Baynunah, which was in ballast. Oil reached the UAE coast north of Khor Fakkan close to the Strait of Hormuz. The oil slick severely polluted several beaches and threatened more than 25 miles (40 km) of coastline.

    May 8 -- VIETNAM - The 1,220-ton Vietnamese Chanoco I, carrying 1,012 tons of fuel oil, and a 10,000-ton Taiwanese ship Unihumanity collided in the Long Tau river near Ho Chi Minh City. About 200 tons spilled into the river from the Vietnamese ship causing a 200-ton oil slick, which killed fish and other wildlife.

    June 14 -- INDIA - Indian authorities began siphoning off 700 tons of oil from the Sea Transporter, a 6,000-ton Greek cargo ship which had been anchored off Aguada after it ran aground following a cyclone on June 5.

    June 23 -- SOUTH AFRICA - An oil slick washing ashore on Dassen Island threatened a colony of endangered Jackass penguins and polluted mainland beaches. It was confirmed on June 28 that the Apollo Sea, a Chinese bulk carrier that was believed to have sunk on June 20 shortly after leaving Saldanha Bay, was the source of Cape Town's worst oil pollution disaster.

    August 11 -- UNITED STATES - The Columbus Iselin, a ship conducting oil spill research, ran aground in the Looe Key National Marine Sanctuary off the Florida Keys and was leaking fuel.

    October 2 -- PORTUGAL - A Panamanian registered tanker, Cercal, spilled about 2,000 tons of crude into the sea after striking a rock on its way into Leixoes harbor, in the northern city of Oporto. The oil badly polluted one beach near the entrance to Leixoes port and smaller quantities of oil came ashore on other parts of the coast near Oporto.

    October 17 -- CHINA - 1,000 meters of beaches and reefs at Dongshan, a resort area at Qinhuangdao in Hebei province were polluted by an oil spill blamed on the Huahai Number Two tanker, owned by the state-run Huahai Company of Beijing.

    1995

    June 5 -- SINGAPORE - About 100 tons of fuel oil leaked from a bunker fuel barge after it collided with the freighter Sun Pulse. The fuel oil had begun washing up on the island's east coast.

    July 11 -- AUSTRALIA - An ore carrier, the Iron Baron, ran aground on a reef in southern Australian waters, spilling more than 500 tons of fuel oil and causing a major pollution scare for the island state of Tasmania. Thousands of fairy penguins were fouled with oil.

    July 25 -- SOUTH KOREA - Oil leaking from the 275,782 deadweight ton Sea Prince, a burning tanker off South Korea, formed a slick 20 miles (32 km) in diameter. The ship was loaded with 83,000 tons of crude oil. It was drifting toward the country's best known sea resort. 700 tons of fuel oil estimated to have been leaked.

    1996

    February 15 -- UNITED KINGDOM - The coast guard called a full environmental alert when the 147,000 deadweight ton Liberian-registered Sea Empress with a crew of 28 Russians hit rocks near the port of Milford Haven, Wales. The tanker, operated by Acomarit, had been carrying 130,000 tons of light crude oil. On February 20 an estimated 40,000 tons of crude oil spilled -- a third of its cargo -- creating a four-mile (six km) oil slick.

    March 19 -- UNITED STATES - A barge operated by Buffalo Marine Services Inc. and loaded with about 210,000 gallons of fuel oil ruptured as it sailed through the Houston Ship Channel. About 4,200 gallons of oil spilled into Galveston Bay, causing a five-mile-long (eight km) oil slick.

    1997

    January 7 -- JAPAN - Coastal fishing villages in northwestern Japan braced for economic and environmental catastrophe as oil slicks from sunken Russian tanker Nakhodka coated beaches and threatened prized shellfish beds. The spill from the ruptured tanker leaked 5,200 tons (36,400 barrels) of heavy fuel oil.

    July 2 -- JAPAN - A supertanker struck a shallow reef in Tokyo Bay, a famed fishing ground, leaking an estimated 1500 tons of crude oil.

    October 15 -- SINGAPORE - A tanker carrying 120.000 tonnes of fuel oil collides with an empty VLCC. More than 25.000 tonnes of oil leak out from the vessel, and despite huge amounts of dispersant chemicals being applied both from the air and from vessels, the beaches of several smaller islands off Singapore are covered with greasy sludge.

    1998

    January 12 -- NIGERIA - 40,000 barrels of oil spilled from a ruptured pipeline to one of Mobil's terminals. Even though most of the oil had either evaporated or dispersed within the 10 days that followed, some communities in the politically-volatile region complained that fish had been poisoned by the spilled oil and fishing nets destroyed. The spill is considered the largest ever in Nigeria.

    1999

    December 12 - FRANCE - The Maltese-registered tanker Erika breaks up in stormy seas, and an estimated 15,000 tonnes of oil are drifting towards France's Atlantic shore. The slick is expected to hit the tiny Nourmoutier and Ile d'Yeu islands on Christmas Day, with disastrous consequences for fishing and tourism. Strong winds and currents and the heavy texture of the oil, have hampered an international flotilla battling to mop up the fast-spreading slick. Gales have since smeared the black slime over hundreds of miles of coast, covering beaches and picturesque wild coastline in sticky oil and threatening fisheries and beds of oysters, mussels and other shellfish.

    December 27 - TURKEY - A Maltese-registered tanker carrying 45,753 tons of oil ran aground at the mouth of the Bosporus strait across Istanbul, the largest city in Turkey, the Turkish Daily News reported. Murat Zafer Cetintas, head of the Organization of Eco-Warriors and the Environment, was quoted as saying that if necessary precautions are not taken, the city will face serious problems.

    December 27 - ANGOLA - An offshore oil spill is approaching the Angolan coast, posing a threat to the fishing industry. Radio Ecclesia said the spill, which occurred in the Atlantic Ocean oil fields off Cabinda province, was advancing towards the coast.
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