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Thread: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

  1. #41
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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by USA-1 View Post
    You should have waited.
    Meh, it's all good.

    I'm a strategic value investor, so getting in at the lowest price isn't a requirement.
    Getting it at a below fair value price enough.
    I was discovering that life just simply isn't fair and bask in the unsung glory of knowing that each obstacle overcome along the way only adds to the satisfaction in the end. Nothing great, after all, was ever accomplished by anyone sulking in his or her misery.
    —Adam Shepard

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    Meh, it's all good.

    I'm a strategic value investor, so getting in at the lowest price isn't a requirement.
    Getting it at a below fair value price enough.
    You didn't. If you paid more than 40 you will lose your shirt. BP will bottom out around 10 and it will not see 40 again in our lifetime. If that's all good you might want to reconsider your goals.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by USA-1 View Post
    You didn't. If you paid more than 40 you will lose your shirt. BP will bottom out around 10 and it will not see 40 again in our lifetime. If that's all good you might want to reconsider your goals.
    If you're so sure, I would think you'd be pouring everything you own into shorting BP.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by USA-1 View Post
    You didn't. If you paid more than 40 you will lose your shirt. BP will bottom out around 10 and it will not see 40 again in our lifetime. If that's all good you might want to reconsider your goals.
    Why? That sounds really off the wall.

    Their fair value is over $100 a share, even accounting for potential liabilities.
    I was discovering that life just simply isn't fair and bask in the unsung glory of knowing that each obstacle overcome along the way only adds to the satisfaction in the end. Nothing great, after all, was ever accomplished by anyone sulking in his or her misery.
    —Adam Shepard

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    To add, there are reasons why BP shares have been trending down outside of the oil spill.

    The "sell in May and stay away" seasonality concept is in effect, as well as, the overall slumping recovery.
    I'm sorry but with all the information available, it will eventually rebound in a couple of years.

    If not, it was a speculative investment that I'll lose out on.
    That's life, I can't always win.
    I was discovering that life just simply isn't fair and bask in the unsung glory of knowing that each obstacle overcome along the way only adds to the satisfaction in the end. Nothing great, after all, was ever accomplished by anyone sulking in his or her misery.
    —Adam Shepard

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    To add, there are reasons why BP shares have been trending down outside of the oil spill.

    The "sell in May and stay away" seasonality concept is in effect, as well as, the overall slumping recovery.
    I'm sorry but with all the information available, it will eventually rebound in a couple of years.

    If not, it was a speculative investment that I'll lose out on.
    That's life, I can't always win.
    . Buying a stock on the way down hoping it rebounds in a couple of years is not a wise move.

    "Although this spill is astronomical, we have to remember that big oil companies like BP could still make astronomical profits and it has a lot of attractive assets it can sell to make money," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PFG Best. "I'm still confident that BP will avoid default."

    Still, Flynn conceded that there is cause for investor confidence to erode, given the unknown potential for political backlash, and even hurricane forecasts, which could hamstring cleanup efforts.

    Whether BP's stock continues to decline or rebounds hinges on the successful completion of the relief wells, says Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, a solution that BP estimates could take another three to four weeks. Until then, Molchanov says, there aren't a lot of reasons to buy the stock.

    This could further punish the company's market capitalization, which has fallen to $85 billion, from more than $160 billion since the oil rig explosion in April, leaving BP quite vulnerable.

    "BP's market cap is eroding and its ability to finance itself in the capital markets is impaired," said Orr. "It's anybody's guess what can happen, but the fear of the market is that the liability could be so enormous that BP may have to seek bankruptcy protection."
    Last edited by USA_1; 06-26-10 at 07:35 PM.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

  7. #47
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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by USA-1 View Post
    . Buying a stock on the way down hoping it rebounds in a couple of years is not a wise move.

    "Although this spill is astronomical, we have to remember that big oil companies like BP could still make astronomical profits and it has a lot of attractive assets it can sell to make money," said Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at PFG Best. "I'm still confident that BP will avoid default."

    Still, Flynn conceded that there is cause for investor confidence to erode, given the unknown potential for political backlash, and even hurricane forecasts, which could hamstring cleanup efforts.

    Whether BP's stock continues to decline or rebounds hinges on the successful completion of the relief wells, says Pavel Molchanov, an analyst at Raymond James, a solution that BP estimates could take another three to four weeks. Until then, Molchanov says, there aren't a lot of reasons to buy the stock.

    This could further punish the company's market capitalization, which has fallen to $85 billion, from more than $160 billion since the oil rig explosion in April, leaving BP quite vulnerable.

    "BP's market cap is eroding and its ability to finance itself in the capital markets is impaired," said Orr. "It's anybody's guess what can happen, but the fear of the market is that the liability could be so enormous that BP may have to seek bankruptcy protection."
    I completely understand all those points, with that said there is still a lot in the back pocket of BP, like a potential British taxpayer bailout among other things.

    I bought it because it was going down, it's call value investing.
    "Buy when there is blood in the streets."

    BP is a still a solid company, with a very profitable product line.
    If they fail, I will lose some but not much because I am well diversified.
    No risk, no reward.

    Always being fearful is a weakness, I'm not a skittish little kitten.
    I was discovering that life just simply isn't fair and bask in the unsung glory of knowing that each obstacle overcome along the way only adds to the satisfaction in the end. Nothing great, after all, was ever accomplished by anyone sulking in his or her misery.
    —Adam Shepard

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by Harry Guerrilla View Post
    I completely understand all those points, with that said there is still a lot in the back pocket of BP, like a potential British taxpayer bailout among other things.

    I bought it because it was going down, it's call value investing.
    "Buy when there is blood in the streets."

    BP is a still a solid company, with a very profitable product line.
    If they fail, I will lose some but not much because I am well diversified.
    No risk, no reward.

    Always being fearful is a weakness, I'm not a skittish little kitten.
    No, but it is better to use some common sense and buy low and sell high. This crisis for BP has just begun and it has a long way to go before it reaches bottom. I can not believe you think it was a good investment to buy BP at 40 when you could have waited a few weeks and bought it at 20. It was a no-brainer. There is a difference between being fearful and investing wisely. When it hits 15 I will buy some BP stock. That will be a wise investment.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

  9. #49
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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by USA-1 View Post
    No, but it is better to use some common sense and buy low and sell high. This crisis for BP has just begun and it has a long way to go before it reaches bottom. I can not believe you think it was a good investment to buy BP at 40 when you could have waited a few weeks and bought it at 20. It was a no-brainer. There is a difference between being fearful and investing wisely. When it hits 15 I will buy some BP stock. That will be a wise investment.
    Like I said it's all good, I don't need someone here admonishing me for what they think is good.
    I can't change time, it is the choice I made and I must live with it.

    No one here has a magic crystal ball that can predict stock prices.

    Strategic value investing doesn't involve a ton of active management, it just involves getting a lower than fair market value price, I did that and I'm happy with my choice.
    If it doesn't pan out, so be it.
    I was discovering that life just simply isn't fair and bask in the unsung glory of knowing that each obstacle overcome along the way only adds to the satisfaction in the end. Nothing great, after all, was ever accomplished by anyone sulking in his or her misery.
    —Adam Shepard

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    Re: BP Exec: Gulf of Mexico 'Relatively Tiny' Compared to 'Very Big Ocean'

    Quote Originally Posted by USA-1 View Post
    No, but it is better to use some common sense and buy low and sell high. This crisis for BP has just begun and it has a long way to go before it reaches bottom. I can not believe you think it was a good investment to buy BP at 40 when you could have waited a few weeks and bought it at 20. It was a no-brainer. There is a difference between being fearful and investing wisely. When it hits 15 I will buy some BP stock. That will be a wise investment.
    If you could actually use your "common sense" to know when to buy low and sell high, you'd be a billionaire. A lot of people think their "common sense" means they can't lose money. The vast majority are wrong.
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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