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Greece Accepts Terms of EU-Led Bailout, ‘Savage’ Budget Cuts

donsutherland1

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This morning, Bloomberg.com reported:

Greece accepted an unprecedented bailout from the European Union and International Monetary Fund valued at more than 100 billion euros ($133 billion) to prevent default, agreeing to budget cuts that unions called “savage.”

The measures are worth 30 billion euros, or 13 percent of gross domestic product, and include wage cuts and a freeze on pensions for three years, Finance Minister George Papaconstantinou said in Athens today. The Sales tax will rise 10 percent. The exact bailout amount will be announced later, he said. Euro-region finance ministers meet at 4 p.m. in Brussels to ratify the pact.

Greece Accepts Terms of EU-Led Bailout, ?Savage? Budget Cuts - Bloomberg.com

To put things into perspective, the final amount of deficit reduction measures are the equivalent of almost $1 trillion as a share of the U.S. budget. Now that the EU and IMF have addressed Greece's liquidity crisis, it remains to be seen whether Greece will follow through on its agreed provisions to tackle its solvency issue.
 
This morning, Bloomberg.com reported:

Greece Accepts Terms of EU-Led Bailout, ?Savage? Budget Cuts - Bloomberg.com

To put things into perspective, the final amount of deficit reduction measures are the equivalent of almost $1 trillion as a share of the U.S. budget. Now that the EU and IMF have addressed Greece's liquidity crisis, it remains to be seen whether Greece will follow through on its agreed provisions to tackle its solvency issue.
That's why they demanded a role for the IMF. I think it depends on Papandreou's ability to convince Greeks of the budget cuts.
 
ye goode olde times of london, sunday edition:

Greece erupts as men from IMF prepare to wield axe - Times Online

MAY DAY protests in Greece turned violent yesterday as youths in gas masks and hoods set fire to vehicles, smashed shop fronts and threw molotov cocktails and rocks at police in an explosion of fury over austerity measures they claim will hurt only the poor.

Tourists were cut off from their hotels as thousands of communists, civil servants and private-sector workers converged on a main square in Athens to vent their rage at the European Union and the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Some young Greeks prefer to blame their elders for the mountain of debt that has resulted in Greece, like a wayward child, being placed under the tutelage of the men from the IMF.

“I cannot help but blame my parents a little for what’s happened,” said Achilles Zacharoulis, a 36-year-old cardiologist. “They were here all that time,” he added, referring to the past three decades of mismanagement and fiscal insanity. “But what did they do to stop it?”

Vaggelis Gettos, 24, is just as alarmed at the burden being heaped on the young by austerity measures expected to be announced today, and has pledged to resist them in more protests this week against what he sees as a plot to impoverish Greece.

“We will live much worse than our parents,” he said. “Why should we be made to pay for their mistakes?”

The question of who was to blame and who should pay for the greatest crisis to afflict the single currency was a subject of heated debate, particularly after a leading credit rating agency put the cradle of civilisation in the same category as Azerbaijan by reducing its government bonds to “junk” status.

Economists regard the bloated civil service with its jobs for life and generous pensions as a cancer consuming the country’s resources. The older generation, the experts grimly concur, turned the state into a giant cash machine to be plundered at will.

Even greater social unrest is expected as resentment simmers among poorer families at being told to tighten their belts when wealthy Greeks can protect their fortunes by moving their money abroad, some of it into property bargains in London.

Some are already referring to a “lost generation” who will never find jobs or security, but the students, proud of their university’s reputation for being at the forefront of the uprising against the military dictatorship in 1973, are not the only ones planning resistance.

Mikis Theodorakis, the 84-year-old musician who composed the score for the film Zorba the Greek, calls for revolt against what he sees as an American plot to turn Greece into a “protectorate”. Bureaucrats will raise their fists at the barricades in a general strike and protests on Wednesday to protect their considerable perks from the IMF.

They and other public sector workers are virtually unsackable, can retire as early as 45 and get bonuses for using a computer, speaking a foreign language and arriving at work on time.

Some of them get as many as four extra months’ salary a year, compared with the 14 months that are paid to other Greek workers. One of the most generous bonuses is paid to unmarried daughters of dead employees in state-controlled banks: they can inherit their parents’ pensions.

Today the country’s budget deficit is 13.6% of GDP and the overall debt stands at €300 billion (£260 billion). Unemployment among 16- to 24-year-olds has risen to 30%, according to government figures. Crime, too, is increasing in Athens.

“I feel like a prisoner here,” says Ilias Iliopoulos, head of the powerful civil servants’ union, gesturing to new bars on his windows after two recent burglaries of his office.

People are stealing so they can live, so they can eat,” he said. “And it will only get worse. These [IMF] measures will drag hundreds of thousands of Greek citizens into a life of poverty.”

As if in the path of an advancing army, Greeks are hiding their money. In the end, Stefanos, the retired captain, opted like his friends for a safety deposit box. The super rich, for their part, have shifted an estimated €11 billion to Cyprus and other havens since the start of the year, according to Konstantinos Michalos, president of the Athens chamber of commerce.

There was hope, he believed, if the government lifted numerous restrictions on business. It costs more to transport a sack of potatoes from northern Greece to Athens than from Athens to Dusseldorf, because haulage, like many other sectors of the Greek economy, is an impenetrable cartel.

When Michalos started a commodities trading business in London in the 1980s, the paperwork took him 48 hours, he said. In Greece’s “Soviet-style” economy he had to go through 117 bureaucratic procedures to get the right government permits. A wealthy friend of his had taken 10 years to win permission to put up a hotel.

It would have taken him another 10 years or a large payment under the table if he wasn’t a friend of very important politicians,” said Michalos. Stournaras, an Oxford-educated economist, who believes that lifting these restrictions and trimming fat from the public sector will have an extraordinary effect on the Greek economy.

worry
 
I feel sorry for the Greek people, but the Greek government should be ashamed of their spending patterns. Hopefully the Greek people will vote out the Panhellenic Socialist Movement and replace them with some real conservatives. Much of Europe is in a spending crisis due to the leadership of hard-left socialist parties. It seems America may be following in their footsteps with Obama's massive spending. My sympathies to the Greek people, hopefully they will make wise voting decisions in their next election.
 
I feel sorry for the Greek people, but the Greek government should be ashamed of their spending patterns. Hopefully the Greek people will vote out the Panhellenic Socialist Movement and replace them with some real conservatives.

It was the conservatives that got them into the problem in the first place.

Much of Europe is in a spending crisis due to the leadership of hard-left socialist parties.

Shows how much you know about Europe.

It seems America may be following in their footsteps with Obama's massive spending.

The US has been massively overspending since Reagan. Blaming Obama for something that started by the Conservatives favorite son is just pathetic.

My sympathies to the Greek people, hopefully they will make wise voting decisions in their next election.

Like voting in the very people who got them into trouble in the first place?
 
It was the conservatives that got them into the problem in the first place.
Really? How can you spin the facts to say that? The socialists have been in power in Greece sense the 80's.

Shows how much you know about Europe.
[/quote]
Well, as I'm seeing all these bail outs and national debts the facts would show that Europe is in a spending nightmare. Facts play no partisanship, the liberals in Europe have trashed the place.

The US has been massively overspending since Reagan. Blaming Obama for something that started by the Conservatives favorite son is just pathetic.
Obama has spent far more massively in just his first year than any president in history. America's presidents have spent too much, but what Obama is spending is insane and more than we've ever seen.
Federal%20Deficit%20Borrowing%203.jpg


Like voting in the very people who got them into trouble in the first place?
They would be voting in the conservatives to clean up the mess that the liberals/socialists have created. You can't blame the conservatives for this sense they haven't been the ones in power. In some countries it has been decades sense they have been in power.
 
Really? How can you spin the facts to say that? The socialists have been in power in Greece sense the 80's.

Shows how much you know about Europe.

No you are wrong. The Prime Minister and hence the government from March 2004 to October 2009 was Kostas Karamanlis of the New Democracy party, which is a right wing conservative party.

Well, as I'm seeing all these bail outs and national debts the facts would show that Europe is in a spending nightmare. Facts play no partisanship, the liberals in Europe have trashed the place.

"Liberals" in European and world terms are right wingers. If you meant "socialists", then beware that much of the so called naughties and the 1990s, most major governments in Europe were right wing. And it was those governments that often can be directly blamed for things like Greece.

As for "bail-outs" as in plural. What bail-outs as in plural? National debt levels in Europe have like in the US shot up because of the economic meltdown in the US causing a world wide crisis. National debt is nothing new and has been around since centuries.

Obama has spent far more massively in just his first year than any president in history. America's presidents have spent too much, but what Obama is spending is insane and more than we've ever seen.
Federal%20Deficit%20Borrowing%203.jpg

Obama was not president in 2008. Fail again. And screw spending. Spending is not the problem, it is not having enough income and hence geting a deficit. And the US has been in deficit since forever with a few exceptions under Clinton. The biggest deficit spender was Reagan who almost tripled the national debt during his and Bush Sr 12 years in office. The along came Bush Jr and doubled that.

They would be voting in the conservatives to clean up the mess that the liberals/socialists have created. You can't blame the conservatives for this sense they haven't been the ones in power. In some countries it has been decades sense they have been in power

Again it was a conservative party that was in power from 2004 to 2009 and heavily involved in the problem. The Greek socialists are not innocent either since they were in power when Greece qualified and entered the Eurozone, but the conservative government that followed them did nothing but make the problem far far far worse than it was.
 
No you are wrong. The Prime Minister and hence the government from March 2004 to October 2009 was Kostas Karamanlis of the New Democracy party, which is a right wing conservative party.
Before then it was the socialists, and after them it was the socialists. Seeing how they have handled things it hasn't been very good. Although if the conservative party spent like socialist then they deserve to be voted out. Conservatives in name only are just as bad.

"Liberals" in European and world terms are right wingers. If you meant "socialists", then beware that much of the so called naughties and the 1990s, most major governments in Europe were right wing. And it was those governments that often can be directly blamed for things like Greece.
When I mean socialists I mean countries run by a socialist political party. By liberal I mean liberals by American terms (people on the left of the spectrum). I'm sorry if there was confusion. You can't really blame the right for this, so this problem arose in the 90's? In Greece's case the socialists were in power, the conservatives only had it between 2004-2009. Germany is run by a right-wing party and from what I understand the EU is looking to them to bail out the socialist led countries because Germany has the money to do it.
As for "bail-outs" as in plural. What bail-outs as in plural? National debt levels in Europe have like in the US shot up because of the economic meltdown in the US causing a world wide crisis. National debt is nothing new and has been around since centuries.
National debs have existed for decades. The problem is when the debts become unmanageable and spending goes out of control. Obama has spent almost and ran up a deficit that is almost as much as Bush did during his term. National debt levels shot up because countries decided to spend massively during the meltdown. The thing is keeping the national debts at manageable levels and trying to reduce it, not running it up and spending far more of what nations don't have. Countries should be run like a household, they need to live within their means and establish an "emergency" fund for times of crisis.


Obama was not president in 2008. Fail again. And screw spending. Spending is not the problem, it is not having enough income and hence geting a deficit. And the US has been in deficit since forever with a few exceptions under Clinton. The biggest deficit spender was Reagan who almost tripled the national debt during his and Bush Sr 12 years in office. The along came Bush Jr and doubled that.
How did I fail? My point was to look at Obama's spending and compare it to the presidents prior to him. Look at the debt and damage he has caused in just one year compared to other presidents before him. Spending is the problem, Obama has spent almost a trillion dollars on a failed stimulus bill and just keeps spending like a teenage girl with daddy's credit card. The problem is spending, not taxation. The US government (and others) seriously need to be held accountable like individuals and live within their means. It should be illegal to spend beyond what we have unless it is a state of national emergency and approved by the people. It's our money that's being thrown away. The biggest deficit spender is Obama, what he has done in 1 year outdoes any US president in history.

Again it was a conservative party that was in power from 2004 to 2009 and heavily involved in the problem. The Greek socialists are not innocent either since they were in power when Greece qualified and entered the Eurozone, but the conservative government that followed them did nothing but make the problem far far far worse than it was.

So the problem arose in Europe during the 90's when some countries had conservatives? Or the problem occurred in 2004-2009 when conservatives had power over Greece? I agree with you that the conservative government must have acted shamefully and not along conservative principals. The problem is that European countries have set up all these expensive state programs, and both the socialists and conservatives have spent like madmen.
 
It was the conservatives that got them into the problem in the first place

LOL!

from The Times:

Economists regard the bloated civil service with its jobs for life and generous pensions as a cancer consuming the country’s resources. The older generation, the experts grimly concur, turned the state into a giant cash machine to be plundered at will.

Bureaucrats will raise their fists at the barricades in a general strike and protests on Wednesday to protect their considerable perks from the IMF.

They and other public sector workers are virtually unsackable, can retire as early as 45 and get bonuses for using a computer, speaking a foreign language and arriving at work on time.

Some of them get as many as four extra months’ salary a year, compared with the 14 months that are paid to other Greek workers. One of the most generous bonuses is paid to unmarried daughters of dead employees in state-controlled banks: they can inherit their parents’ pensions.

It costs more to transport a sack of potatoes from northern Greece to Athens than from Athens to Dusseldorf, because haulage, like many other sectors of the Greek economy, is an impenetrable cartel.

When Michalos started a commodities trading business in London in the 1980s, the paperwork took him 48 hours, he said. In Greece’s “Soviet-style” economy he had to go through 117 bureaucratic procedures to get the right government permits. A wealthy friend of his had taken 10 years to win permission to put up a hotel.

“It would have taken him another 10 years or a large payment under the table if he wasn’t a friend of very important politicians,” said Michalos. Stournaras, an Oxford-educated economist.
 
Before then it was the socialists, and after them it was the socialists. Seeing how they have handled things it hasn't been very good. Although if the conservative party spent like socialist then they deserve to be voted out. Conservatives in name only are just as bad.

You said it was the socialists fault and it clearly was not. The Conservatives were the ones who lied about the depth of the problem and it was the socialists who won an election because of this and exposed them. What is being investigated now is if the previous socialist government lied about their economy when Greece entered the Eurozone. There is no doubt what so ever that the previous conservative Greek government lied to the EU and its international partners over its economy for the 5 years the Conservative right wing government was in power.

When I mean socialists I mean countries run by a socialist political party. By liberal I mean liberals by American terms (people on the left of the spectrum). I'm sorry if there was confusion. You can't really blame the right for this, so this problem arose in the 90's?

No, again you are wrong. What problem are we talking about first off? That countries in Europe have debt? Every country on the planet has debt. The US has debt. Japan has 200%+ debt.

In Greece's case the socialists were in power, the conservatives only had it between 2004-2009.

When the false reporting to the EU and the world was happening.. that was from 2004 to 2009 when the right wing government was in power.

Germany is run by a right-wing party and from what I understand the EU is looking to them to bail out the socialist led countries because Germany has the money to do it.

Again you are ill informed. The EU is not looking to anyone to loan Greece money. The Eurozone, not the EU, is working with the IMF to help Greece out. All Eurozone members will be contributing to the funding with Germany being the largest contributor since it is the largest single economy in the Eurozone. Yes Germany is a center right government, but so are many of the Eurozone members governments, now and during the 1990s and 2000s.

National debs have existed for decades. The problem is when the debts become unmanageable and spending goes out of control.

And what is "out of control" exactly? That there is deficit spending during a massive recession.. no **** sherlock that happens in most countries and is the only way. We know this from experience.. the great depression.

Obama has spent almost and ran up a deficit that is almost as much as Bush did during his term.

Again more false information. Look at your debt levels, and your deficit composition. Not all, far from all, but quite a bit, comes from Bush and before.

National debt levels shot up because countries decided to spend massively during the meltdown.

Which is exactly the way to go.

The thing is keeping the national debts at manageable levels and trying to reduce it, not running it up and spending far more of what nations don't have.

You have been spending like drunken sailors for 30+ years..

Countries should be run like a household, they need to live within their means and establish an "emergency" fund for times of crisis.

And that is a load of bs. Countries are not households. Households dont have a guaranteed income, countries do. Already your theory goes out the window.

Now saying that, countries should not spend like drunken sailors in the good times.. something the US has done for the last 30+ years. European countries have for the most part not. In fact places like Spain and Denmark paid down their debt levels considerably during the good years... in Denmarks case to no external state debt at all.

How did I fail? My point was to look at Obama's spending and compare it to the presidents prior to him. Look at the debt and damage he has caused in just one year compared to other presidents before him. Spending is the problem, Obama has spent almost a trillion dollars on a failed stimulus bill and just keeps spending like a teenage girl with daddy's credit card.

I dont want to get into Obama and the US too much, but safe to say you are wrong. The 3% growth rate last quarter shows that.

The problem is spending, not taxation.

Its both. You spend too much and you dont collect enough taxes. It is pretty simple.

The US government (and others) seriously need to be held accountable like individuals and live within their means. It should be illegal to spend beyond what we have unless it is a state of national emergency and approved by the people. It's our money that's being thrown away. The biggest deficit spender is Obama, what he has done in 1 year outdoes any US president in history.

And this child like economics does not work in the real world.

So the problem arose in Europe during the 90's when some countries had conservatives? Or the problem occurred in 2004-2009 when conservatives had power over Greece? I agree with you that the conservative government must have acted shamefully and not along conservative principals. The problem is that European countries have set up all these expensive state programs, and both the socialists and conservatives have spent like madmen.

LOL I see, just because you dont agree with your conservative cohorts then they are not conservative enough? And what are conservative principals? Your principles? What American conservatives say are principals?

You do know that no one right wing US government since forever has ever gotten even close to a balanced budget? Most of the time they have expanded the deficit to new heights.. Reagan did it, Bush did it. Is that the conservative principles we are talking about?
 
LOL!

from The Times:

And?

It was the conservative lead government that lied about the debt and deficit. This in turn meant that lenders started to doubt the word of Greece which lead to higher yields and a run on the country. The Greek deficit or debt would not have been the same problem if it was not for the trust issue that occurred because of what the Conservative lead government did.

As for the underlying problem of Greek society, I never said it was a left or right wing issue. Those problems were built up over many many centuries, and have no real "political colour" so to say. Bureaucracy has no political colour, conservative, right, socialist or leftwing both expand the bureaucracy to meet their political needs. Look at the US.. biggest expansion of the bureaucracy in decades happened when Bush made the Department of Homeland Security. .. but since it met a so called Conservative principle of "security, defense and the law" then it is all just fine.....

But non of this changes the fact that the whole problem started when the right wing government of Greece got caught in lieing about its debt problems and deficit for 5 years. The minimal trust there was, was thrown out the window and with no trust then Greece is a sitting duck for the speculators.
 
It was the conservative lead government that lied about the debt and deficit.

did it lie about the unsackability, the retirements at 45, the 16 months pay per year, the 117 bureaucratic procedures?

LOL!
 
There is a simplistic argument that Greece's recent debt crisis is largely (maybe even wholly) a matter of political ideology. More specifically, in that line of thinking, Greece's recent debt crisis was a matter of "leftist" politics. Therefore, all Greece has to do is to change the governing ideology and that country will live happily ever after in fiscal balance and economic prosperity. If only things were so simple.

The reality is that the seeds of Greece's debt crisis were planted many years ago. There were some extraordinary circumstances involved.

• Dictatorship prior to 1974 that stunted Greece's economic development, leaving the country with increasingly uncompetitive industries/firms. Toward the end of the dictatorship, as the uncompetitiveness was worsening, Greece's annual economic growth was diminishing.

• 1970s twin energy crises that created substantial economic shocks and further undermined Greece's economy.

• Greece's internationalization of its economy that created an inherent conflict from continuing social modernization and economic/fiscal restructuring. Democratically-elected governments vacillated between the two approaches.

• Greece's economic growth has become insufficient to exclude revenue-increasing measures when it comes to fiscal improvement.

• Greece experienced a cyclical boom during part of the 2000s. That boom was reversed as the U.S. real estate bubble burst, U.S. financial crisis unfolded, U.S. economy moved into a severe recession, and the U.S. contagion spread though financial and trade channels. Hence, the benefits of cyclical growth dissipated while the underlying structural problems continued to fester.

The Library of Congress' Country Study on Greece explains:

The crisis conditions of the 1970s eventually penetrated the public sector under both conservative and socialist governments. In the 1980s, the socialist administrations of Papandreou sought to bolster areas of the economy that lagged farthest behind Greece's EC partners by extending welfare protection in a variety of forms. But this policy was not supported by tax reforms that would generate new revenue for public spending, so the deficits and public borrowing that had begun in the late 1970s intensified in the 1980s. A "roller coaster" cycle of preelection largesse and postelection stringency in public spending has been apparent under both conservative and socialist governments in the 1980s and 1990s...

In 1990-93 the conservative government of Konstantinos Mitsotakis and his National Democracy (Nea Demokratia--ND) party undertook harsher, more persistent stabilization efforts accompanied by a privatization program for state-owned firms and a tax reduction program. Conservative policies were only partially successful, however, because they had the side effect of depressing the economy. Thus, tax revenues failed to increase at the expected rate, pressures for increased public spending remained high as unemployment and social problems worsened, and business prospects did not brighten enough to boost private demand for the state-owned enterprises put on sale in the privatization program.

The PASOK government of Andreas Papandreou, back in power in late 1993, continued to implement stabilization policies, reorienting them by directing its tax reform policy to enforce compliance by undertaxed strata of society, by following a more pragmatic course on privatization to maximize revenue from sales, and avoiding new indirect taxes that would rekindle inflation. The initial impact of this approach on inflation was positive, dropping the annual rate to a twenty-year low of 10.6 percent. However, the problems of unemployment and industrial decline clearly persist in the mid-1990s.


The IMF's August 2009 Article IV Consultation with Greece highlighted continuing problems concerning fiscal imbalances, demographic change (relative decline in working age population that is poised to begin this year, and diminishing economic competitiveness). The result of the demographic changes and structural challenges (some of a longstanding nature) is a worsening growth outlook. The IMF's report noted:

Based on these data, the current decade (the 2000s) is the high point for growth in Greece. Going forward, potential output growth is projected to slow with current structural policies and demographic trends, to a low of 0.6 percent in the 2040s (when aging is at the peak). Once the dependency ratio is past its peak, potential growth improves slightly again. The key insight, however, is that looking forward, Greek growth is likely to slow substantially, unless structural reform policies are strengthened to lean against the wind of demographic transition...

In the 2000s, Greece has been in a cyclical boom, now turning into a downturn. Thus, for the current decade as a whole, revenues have been strong whereas cyclically sensitive entitlement spending and other outlays have been relatively low. This implies that the overall fiscal balance has been more favorable than the underlying structural fiscal balance.


Just as had been the case in the 1990s, economic growth will not be sufficient to generate sufficient tax revenues, meaning that tax cuts would worsen the fiscal situation not improve it. As a result, taxes will need to be hiked (closing avenues for evasion and placing greater emphasis on consumption taxes that are more difficult to avoid could help), spending reduced, and long-term spending growth constrained. The EU/IMF austerity measures announced today make a potentially good downpayment on the structural reforms Greece needs if it is to address its longer-term solvency issue. It remains an open question whether Greece will fulfill the terms of its austerity measures. It should be noted that the tax hikes initially could further damp short-term economic activity, but over time as Greece's long-term interest rates fall (should it succeed in meeting the terms of its austerity program) and economic growth revive, tax revenues would wind up higher than they would otherwise have been under the current system.
 
did it lie about the unsackability, the retirements at 45, the 16 months pay per year, the 117 bureaucratic procedures?

Both Greece's left-of-center and right-of-center governments did little to undertake the structural tax, labor market, pension, health, and public policy reforms that are required to address that country's long-term solvency issue. Their benign inaction contributed to what is anything but a benign situation.

In democratic societies, the appetite for significant reforms can be lacking, as it would take a lot of political courage for elected officials to persuade their constituents to accept sacrifice. As constituents would be feeling the impact of the sacrifice (fewer services, less take-home pay from hiked taxes), soundbites won't suffice. A real educative effort would be required. Hence, there is a pronounced bias for accommodation.

One can see a similar lack of appetite, at least right now, in the U.S. The Democratic Party is resistant to making meaningful changes to the nation's mandatory spending programs (absurdly, the Republicans "one-upped" the Democrats during the health care debate calling for no reductions in Medicare spending whatsoever). Republicans are loathe to accept any kind of tax hikes. Both parties see the persistent U.S. trade imbalances as a matter of "unfair" trading practices, rather than offering the more accurate but less popular prescription that competitiveness gaps are really at the foundation of those imbalances.
 
Both Greece's left-of-center and right-of-center governments did little to undertake the structural tax, labor market, pension, health, and public policy reforms that are required to address that country's long-term solvency issue. Their benign inaction contributed to what is anything but a benign situation.

i know, it might have something to do with all those voices in the street

In democratic societies, the appetite for significant reforms can be lacking, as it would take a lot of political courage for elected officials to persuade their constituents to accept sacrifice. As constituents would be feeling the impact of the sacrifice (fewer services, less take-home pay from hiked taxes), soundbites won't suffice.

not to get personal, and i really couldn't care less, but why do you so often teach 5th grade lessons using post-grad syntax?

A real educative effort would be required. Hence, there is a pronounced bias for accommodation.

oh, brother

One can see a similar lack of appetite, at least right now, in the U.S. The Democratic Party is resistant to making meaningful changes to the nation's mandatory spending programs (absurdly, the Republicans "one-upped" the Democrats during the health care debate calling for no reductions in Medicare spending whatsoever). Republicans are loathe to accept any kind of tax hikes. Both parties see the persistent U.S. trade imbalances as a matter of "unfair" trading practices, rather than offering the more accurate but less popular prescription that competitiveness gaps are really at the foundation of those imbalances.

again, the 5th grade lesson thing

thanks, cliff
 
There is a simplistic argument that Greece's recent debt crisis is largely (maybe even wholly) a matter of political ideology.

there are a lot of simplistic arguments

More specifically, in that line of thinking, Greece's recent debt crisis was a matter of "leftist" politics. Therefore, all Greece has to do is to change the governing ideology and that country will live happily ever after in fiscal balance and economic prosperity. If only things were so simple.

exactly, things like this are never simple

tax cuts would worsen the fiscal situation not improve it

way too "simplistic" an assertion, i'm surprised

it certainly would depend on exactly what tax cuts we were talking, when, where and how

The EU/IMF austerity measures announced today make a potentially good downpayment on the structural reforms Greece needs if it is to address its longer-term solvency issue.

good, but they don't appear real popular in athens

It remains an open question whether Greece will fulfill the terms of its austerity measures.

now you're getting there
 
It's far to easy to blame it on socialism, socialist parties. We have to look at individual policies first. There's a world of difference between German and Greek socialists. I have lived in a country where the social democrats formed many governments, the avg retirement age is 65. No one likes having to work 20 years longer, socialist or not. That's simply a difficult political message, which might explain why the conservatives proved just as unable.
 
With regard to the endemic problem tax evasion problem in Greece that PeteEU and I have noted in several threads concerning the Greek debt crises, today's edition of The New York Times has an article that reveals just how large that issue is. The newspaper reports:

Various studies, including one by the Federation of Greek Industries last year, have estimated that the government may be losing as much as $30 billion a year to tax evasion — a figure that would have gone a long way to solving its debt problems...

Various studies have concluded that Greece’s shadow economy represented 20 to 30 percent of its gross domestic product. Friedrich Schneider, the chairman of the economics department at Johannes Kepler University of Linz, studies Europe’s shadow economies; he said that Greece’s was at 25 percent last year and estimated that it would rise to 25.2 percent in 2010. For comparison, the United States’ was put at 7.8 percent.
 
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You said it was the socialists fault and it clearly was not. The Conservatives were the ones who lied about the depth of the problem and it was the socialists who won an election because of this and exposed them. What is being investigated now is if the previous socialist government lied about their economy when Greece entered the Eurozone. There is no doubt what so ever that the previous conservative Greek government lied to the EU and its international partners over its economy for the 5 years the Conservative right wing government was in power.

I could call myself a rutabaga but that doesn't make it true. This collapse had nothing to do with "conservatives"; no, it was socialistic, marxist welfare statism; nothing conservative about that. But don't let that stop you from spinning...
 
Greece was one of the fastest growing economies in the Eurozone, having an average of 4.2% real growth from 2000-2007.

Greece has mostly failed to take advantage of years of strong growth between 2000 and 2007, one of the strongest in the euro area (4.2% per year) for fiscal consolidation. For growth rested on shaky ground: a very low rate of export (less than 20%) and a very high individual debt.

Onze questions-réponses sur la crise grecque - Economie - Nouvelobs.com

With this in mind, we should take into consideration why deficits were occurring in light of such high growth. Were taxes either too high, or too low? Considering the levels of spending, and no serious attempts at fiscal responsibility, Greece was undoubtedly under taxing its citizens.

So the answer is ever so simple: Either raise taxes, cut spending, or a combination of the two.

Given the overall size of the Greek economy (around $340 billion GDP), and the overall level of economic growth (4% annually), it is fiscally unsustainable for a government to run deficits that exceed growth, not to mention in the tune of 300% or greater. Which should be a lesson for all nations: During times of economic growth, total public sector deficit spending should not eclipse the annual rate of real growth.

This is especially important if the majority of public debt is held in external fashion. It is estimated that around 70% of Greek public sector debt is held externally. Which goes without saying: you cannot blame speculators when you as a nation allow foreign investment (speculation in its own right) to fund your deficits.

Many people want to blame politicians, and to a point, rightly so. However, there has been another obstacle creating quite a bit of downward pressure: The Euro!

Being that Greece is a major importer of European goods (namely from Germany and Italy; two larger Eurozone economies), when demand for both tourism and shipping fell dramatically, companies were hard pressed to lower their prices while simultaneously paying the going rate for imports from less effected nations (Germany, Italy).

Consider two open economies with floating individual currencies. When one economy (country 1) has a greater drop in demand than the other(country 2), the buying power in country 1 will increase relative to country 2, ceteris paribus. Country 1 will then be able to lower prices while having greater buying power in respects to trade. Negating the differentials of comparative advantage and balance of trade, country 1 will see an increase in both exports and demand, while a new equilibrium emerges in regards to leveling out in the currency pair. This dynamic cycle will continue.

With Greece being tied to the Euro,firms cannot reduce prices to the point where Greek purchasing power increases relative to their trade partners. Such a scenario is devastating for their tourism and shipping industries. Low margin firms will run up debt, go bankrupt, or cut a considerable amount of costs in the tune of labor. This supports the negative employment outlook in Greece for the foreseeable future.

Many smaller Eurozone economies are in the same currency situation (Solvakia, Solvenia, etc...) They also have neighboring trading partners who benefit from a cheaper currency.
 
For those who are interested, some key links concerning the agreement between the EU/IMF and Greece in addressing Greece's liquidity crisis are:

IMF’s Summary of the terms of the agreement concerning Greece’s budget measures and EU/IMF financing:
IMF Survey: Europe and IMF Agree €110 Billion Financing Plan With Greece

Join Statement by EU Commissioner Olli Rehn and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn:
Press Release: Joint Statement on Greece by EU Commissioner Olli Rehn and IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn

Prime Minister Papandreou’s Speech:
primeminister.gr | Meeting of Cabinet | Prime Minister’s speech

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) assessment of the EU/IMF-Greece financial adjustment program: ECB: ECB assesses the Greek economic and financial adjustment programme

The ECB’s decision to waive minimum credit requirements for Greek debt used as collateral:
ECB: ECB announces change in eligibility of debt instruments issued or guaranteed by the Greek government

It should be noted that it remains to be seen whether Greece will be able to carry through with its obligations tied to addressing its larger solvency issue. As a result of the continuing uncertainty on that issue, the Euro declined in trading today. Such an outcome is similar to one that frequently occurs in the immediate aftermath of a corporate acquisition. Often, the stock price of the purchaser falls following the announcement due to concerns that it overpaid and that such overpayment will lead to a reduction in shareholder wealth for those who own stock in the buyer.
 
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To illustrate the point about the uncertainty as to whether Greece will be able to carry through with its obligations tied to addressing its larger solvency issue, CNBC reported today:

A Moody's Investors Service official said the bailout does not mark the end of the country's fiscal crisis because the key is whether the country can adjust to meet the budget deficit targets it has agreed to.

IMO, Greek debt ratings should remain unchanged in the near-term. Until Greece demonstrates that it is carrying through with its obligations, in other words beginning to tackle its long-term solvency issue and thereby reducing its sovereign debt risk, its credit rating should not be upgraded.
 
It was the conservatives that got them into the problem in the first place.



Shows how much you know about Europe.



The US has been massively overspending since Reagan. Blaming Obama for something that started by the Conservatives favorite son is just pathetic.



Like voting in the very people who got them into trouble in the first place?
The partisan hackery here is galactic. And you couldn't help yourself again, but trotted in Reagan to blame for spending. This has what to do with Greece? Nothing of course, but you are here to discuss Greece.....what a surprise. :roll:
 
I'm satisfied with the package of budget cuts they agreed on and I'm satisfied with the harsh conditions of the 'bailout'. We (the dutch) will reluctantly lend Greece roughly 5 billion euros with 5% interest while we have to pay 1,5% to lend money ourselves. If Greece repays in full, we'll make money on this deal.

There is only thing I can't be satisfied about and that's the time it took to come to an agreement. It shows the weakness of our monetary union and the fact we need the IMF to secure Greece's budget cuts doesn't make it any better. We need to adress this isseu to prepare ourselves for future problems in the eurozone.
 
The partisan hackery here is galactic. And you couldn't help yourself again, but trotted in Reagan to blame for spending. This has what to do with Greece? Nothing of course, but you are here to discuss Greece.....what a surprise. :roll:

If it is partisan to point out the truth among the misinformation then sure call me partisan. Not my fault you cant admit your hero was a big spender.. the facts speak for themselves.
 
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