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Thread: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    The stimulus obviously helped, but it helped government employees and unions mostly - as this poll indicates, the private sector had little use for it; the multiplier effect served to increase aggregate demand, as Don pointed out, but there is no way to accurately or precisely quantify that effect without making some assumptions and inferences.

    To me, it was a poorly constructed spending project; it was nothing more than a slush fund for the private sector, really. A more targeted and temporary stimulus with a larger emphasis on tax breaks and private sector incentives would have worked better.

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by Dezaad View Post
    Well, now we've heard from a non-Keynseyan supposed ex-economist. Woohoo.
    You call it whatever you want. I never bought into any econ camp. I was more interested in being right than having some silly label. And no matter how you label it, the stimulus was a dumb idea.
    Wow. Am I awesome or what?

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by Dezaad View Post
    Well, now we've heard from a non-Keynseyan supposed ex-economist. Woohoo.
    If only more economists were able to recognize the idiocy of Keynesian economics, we might not be in this mindless, consumptive cycle of asset bubbles and debt.

    Keynesian economics certainly has its utility, but the liberals are simply in love with it, mostly without understanding its shortcomings; I see you're of that school.
    Last edited by 1984; 04-26-10 at 01:08 PM.

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    I'm not surprised it didn't have much of an effect. I think the whole thing was to ensure that those super rich people and big ass companies didn't fail so they took our money and gave it to them. The rest of the crap was just show to try to make it look like government...including the democrats, have some form a responsibility to the people. But it was clear where all their responsibilities lies...with the corporation and the bank; not the people.
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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    FWIW, the NABE survey covered an issue far narrower than the headline might suggest. It dealt with employment.
    Job creation was a primary selling point of the stimulus.
    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The survey did not solicit opinions on the overall macroeconomic impact of the stimulus, for which the IMF stated that it added 1 percentage point to GDP in its recently-released April 2010 World Economic Outlook.
    As you well know, you don't get something for nothing and gains in GDP now will come at a cost later when either Obama or the next president is forced to raise taxes to pay for this thing.

    No jobs and lower GDP in the long run.

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Job creation was a primary selling point of the stimulus.

    As you well know, you don't get something for nothing and gains in GDP now will come at a cost later when either Obama or the next president is forced to raise taxes to pay for this thing.

    No jobs and lower GDP in the long run.
    This is the main failing of Keynesian economics, i.e., it is overly concerned with short run economic conditions - it fails utterly in the long run.

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    You need to learn the difference between "projection", and "promise".
    how 'bout "said?"

    would that be better?

    LOL!

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    LOL!

    How about

    LOL!

    we look at the

    LOL!

    actual

    source

    LOL!

    http://otrans.3cdn.net/ee40602f9a7d8172b8_ozm6bt5oi.pdf

    Thus, we are working to counter a potential total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.1
    The words "estimate", and "predict" are used frequently in the report.

    LOL!
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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Job creation was a primary selling point of the stimulus.
    It was. I don't think there's any doubt that the magnitude of the economic decline and related job destruction were underestimated.

    As you well know, you don't get something for nothing and gains in GDP now will come at a cost later when either Obama or the next president is forced to raise taxes to pay for this thing.

    No jobs and lower GDP in the long run.
    That's why fiscal consolidation will be so important going forward. The bias toward accommodation has contributed to cyclical deficits being transformed into structural ones.

    Taken by itself, the contribution to national debt from the fiscal stimulus is relatively small compared to the imbalances associated with Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. The nation will need to develop and implement a credible fiscal consolidation program once the economic recovery has been sustained. IMO, 2011 is a good time to start the fiscal consolidation effort.

    A credible fiscal consolidation effort will require reforming the mandatory spending programs. Social Security will need to be reformed (lower benefits, much of which could be achieved over a gradual period during which benefits would be increased by CPI less 1%, raising the retirement age and then pegging it to life expectancy, and a modest increase in payroll taxes to cover any remaining imbalance). Medicare and Medicaid will also need to be addressed. That will require far-reaching health reform that addresses the nation's excessive health cost problem. Some degree of means-testing, among other measures, will likely be required for a restructuring of Medicare.

    Although some tax hikes will very likely be necessary, it will be important for policy makers to avoid excessive tax hikes that could undermine long-term economic growth. Per the IMF, probably somewhere in the vicinity of two-thirds of the fiscal imbalances should probably be addressed via spending-related reforms (and I have little disagreement with the IMF's suggestion that the emphasis be placed on spending reductions, as spending growth in the mandatory spending programs is at the heart of the fiscal imbalances) with the rest coming from revenue-raising measures.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 04-26-10 at 01:39 PM.

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    Re: Economists: The stimulus didn't help

    Booooooooooom!
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    That just amazing Batman!

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