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U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

A TRILLION PER YEAR BY 2018

FOUR POINT FIVE MILLION FORECLOSURES IN 2010

SACRAMENTO AND ALBANY ARE BILLIONS BEHIND

and he focuses on GMATV!

LOL!

can you get any smaller?
 
Sorry to piss on your wet blanket.

The only people doing cartwheels over 162k jobs will be partisan leftists ecstatic that things haven't gotten worse for yet another month.

If you want to know what an economic turnaround looks like, try three years of consistent job gains averaging somewhere between 250 and 300k a month. Since our first job gains last November, we're averaging what? 23k?

:yawn:

Read this.

What we're about to have is 1982 all over again.

The similarities are striking.
 
To provide some clarity on the economy, here are a few quick snapshots:

Real GDP (Annualized Change)
2008 Q1 -0.7%
2008 Q2 +1.5%
2008 Q3 -2.7%
2008 Q4 -5.4%
2009 Q1 -6.4%
2009 Q2 -0.7%
2009 Q3 +2.2%
2009 Q4 +5.6%

The IMF will be coming out with its estimates for 2010 Real GDP growth on April 21. My guess is that the IMF will forecast 2.5% to 3.0% real GDP growth for 2010.

The Federal Reserve's latest forecast is a more robust 2.8% to 3.5%. FWIW, I expect that this idea is a little too aggressive.

Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims:

Weekly Figure:
Week ended 4/3/2010: 460,000
6 months ago: 531,000
12 months ago: 643,000

Four-week moving average:
Period ended 4/3/2010: 450,250
6 months ago: 540,500
12 months ago: 643,000

Monthly Employment Changes:
The labor market has stabilized and may be in the early stages of a resumption of growth.

March2010EmploymentReport.jpg

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Federal Reserve Discussions:

3/10/2010 Beige Book:

Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic conditions continued to expand since the last report, although severe snowstorms in early February held back activity in several Districts...

Next Beige Book: 4/14

Minutes from 3/16/2010:

The information reviewed at the March 16 meeting suggested that economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in early 2010. Business investment in equipment and software seemed to have picked up, consumer spending increased further in January, and private employment would likely have turned up in February in the absence of the snowstorms that affected the East Coast.

Sentiment:

Business Roundtable CEO Survey has shown recovering confidence.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Confidence is above figures from a year ago and the Index has moved erratically higher.

Oil Consumption:

U.S. oil consumption, which can provide anecdotal evidence concerning business activity, is presently running about 1.9% above figures from a year ago. That reflects the increase in GDP since the economy bottomed out in 2009 Q3. Since that time, real GDP has increased 1.9%.
 
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consumer confidence is near an all time low

america's gut is not as optimistic as you, i'm afraid

it's probably cuzza all the foreclosures dad has to pass, y'know, on his way home from work

cuz there're so many more than there were a year ago

and a year ago was really bad

it's probably cuz mom has been so hopeless so long about the state of affairs in sacto

their depression certainly relates to both of them knowing the impossible-to-repay sums being borrowed and spent by both state and feds

CBO report: Debt will rise to 90% of GDP - Washington Times

dad just learned his employer has to come up with an extra billion just to stay in business

and mom, a public school teacher, was informed this week that her state pension is as insolvent as obama's new medicare

Study: California Public Pensions Underfunded by Over $500B - California Healthline

of course, she teaches math, which doesn't help...

consumer confidence is near an all time low for real reasons
 
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From Message #220 in this thread, I noted:

...the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery. Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S., with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011 (under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery).

While one is waiting for the IMF's projection, and I continue to like the idea of +2.5% to +3.0% real GDP growth this year, the AP's survey of economists revealed that the mean expected real GDP growth among its respondents was 3.1% for 2010. That's a little rosier than my own thinking. Nonetheless, it's the latest suggestion that the economy is on a moderate growth path.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is waiting for technical reasons before declaring an official end to the recession. NBER did note the recent economic improvement. NBER explained:

Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months. The committee acts only on the basis of actual indicators and does not rely on forecasts in making its determination of the dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.
 
FOXNews.com - Fox News Poll: 53% Disapprove of Obama?s Handling of the Economy

as of april 9, EIGHTY SIX PERCENT of americans say that the EMPLOYMENT situation has reached a CRISIS level

EIGHTY TWO % feel the current DEFICIT should be categorized as a CRISIS

and the GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, according to EIGHTY ONE % of americans, has reached CRITICAL status, as well

that's an awful lot of americans who don't share the eggheads' optimism

consumer confidence is near an ALL TIME LOW for real reasons
 
FOXNews.com - Fox News Poll: 53% Disapprove of Obama?s Handling of the Economy

as of april 9, EIGHTY SIX PERCENT of americans say that the EMPLOYMENT situation has reached a CRISIS level

EIGHTY TWO % feel the current DEFICIT should be categorized as a CRISIS

and the GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, according to EIGHTY ONE % of americans, has reached CRITICAL status, as well

that's an awful lot of americans who don't share the eggheads' optimism

consumer confidence is near an ALL TIME LOW for real reasons

You are right. Obama should just come out and tell us the truth. That he can not possible fix the mess Bush left him and he will leave it to the next president. He should lock himself in the Whitehouse and wait for Palin to relieve him.
 
FOXNews.com - Fox News Poll: 53% Disapprove of Obama?s Handling of the Economy

as of april 9, EIGHTY SIX PERCENT of americans say that the EMPLOYMENT situation has reached a CRISIS level

EIGHTY TWO % feel the current DEFICIT should be categorized as a CRISIS

and the GENERAL ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, according to EIGHTY ONE % of americans, has reached CRITICAL status, as well

that's an awful lot of americans who don't share the eggheads' optimism

consumer confidence is near an ALL TIME LOW for real reasons

Acknowledging the onset of moderate growth should not be confused as indicating that one is arguing that there is robust growth. Suggesting that the economy is likely to grow at a moderate clip for 2010 is not unrealistic optimism. Of course, in around 8 months we'll know what happened.

The fiscal challenges facing the nation are a grave issue. IMO, a credible fiscal consolidation strategy aimed at addressing the nation's fiscal challenges should be developed, the sooner the better. As noted previously, I believe discretionary spending reductions, mandatory spending reform, and modest tax hikes should be part of such a strategy. There should not be any "sacred cows" so to speak. Among other things, raising the retirement age and then pegging it to life expectancies should be adopted immediately, as such a move has little impact on aggregate demand, but could produce significant long-run savings (present value). Serious health care reform that addresses the excessive cost growth problem needs to be pursued if Medicare and Medicaid are to become sustainable and employer-centered private coverage is to remain viable without undermining the nation's competitive advantages.

Once the economy is on a sustained growth path--possibly beginning in 2011--the fiscal consolidation strategy should start to be implemented. The longer policy makers wait to do so, the more difficult the challenges and transition will be.
 
your opinions about where we are or where we should go next are no more interesting (to me) than anyone else's

EIGHTY SIX PERCENT of americans describe this economy as a CRISIS

talk to THEM
 
your opinions about where we are or where we should go next are no more interesting (to me) than anyone else's

EIGHTY SIX PERCENT of americans describe this economy as a CRISIS

talk to THEM

My opinion as to where things are heading is opinion, even as it is based on data/historical experience. Time will tell about whether my idea of moderate growth (economy and jobs) turns out to be more accurate than the idea of "no growth" for the timelines specified in this thread.

Personally, I hope that 2010 economic and job growth proves stronger than what I expect. I could care less whether more robust growth has a political impact and I suspect that dimension is influencing some efforts to talk down the emergent cyclical rebound. IMO, stronger growth's positive societal benefit is far more important than whether such growth has an impact on the 2010 and, even more, 2012 elections.

Having said that, what most definitely is not opinion are the actual economic statistics once they are finalized. Real GDP growth can be found on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' website. Monthly changes in total non-farm payrolls can be found in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Report.

That a poll suggests that 86% of Americans described the economy as a "crisis" is a matter of how Americans felt about the present state of affairs when they were surveyed. Even as I agree with those sentiments given the nation's high unemployment rate, those sentiments have no bearing whatsoever on the issue of whether there is or is not economic growth. GDP data shows that there has been growth in the two most recent quarters. During that time, real GDP has expanded 1.9%.
 
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My opinion as to where things are heading is opinion, even as it is based on data/historical experience. Time will tell about whether my idea of moderate growth (economy and jobs) turns out to be more accurate than the idea of "no growth" for the timelines specified in this thread.

you talk yet say nothing

Personally, I hope that 2010 economic and job growth proves stronger than what I expect.

fascinating, revealing, NOT a waste of anyone's time

I could care less whether more robust growth has a political impact and I suspect that dimension is influencing some efforts to talk down the emergent cyclical rebound.

at&t out a billion is not talking down

86% in crisis is not talking down

interest on the debt to approach a tril in just over 5 years is not talking down

the dangerously upside down status of our biggest and most expensive states is not talking down

the uncertainties surrounding health care, cap and trade, reg reform, is not talking down

half of those hamped already re-defaulting---not talk

gas prices, initial jobless claims, foreigners dumping our debt---not talk

4.5 million foreclosures coming in the immediate future is not talking down

no, not talking down, just talking

ie, LINKS

IMO, stronger growth's positive societal benefit is far more important than whether such growth has an impact on the 2010 and, even more, 2012 elections.

fascinating, do tell more

what's your favorite color?

Having said that, what most definitely is not opinion are the actual economic statistics once they are finalized. Real GDP growth can be found on the Bureau of Economic Analysis' website. Monthly changes in total non-farm payrolls can be found in the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation Report.

talking, but not saying anything

that is, everyone already knows where to find gdp's

there's more to an economy than gdp, friend

That a poll suggests that 86% of Americans described the economy as a "crisis" is a matter of how Americans felt about the present state of affairs when they were surveyed.

really?

Even as I agree with those sentiments given the nation's high unemployment rate, those sentiments have no bearing whatsoever on the issue of whether there is or is not economic growth.

the states of mind of the folks comprising the economy go far to determine just whether and how much growth is actually realized

GDP data shows that there has been growth in the two most recent quarters. During that time, real GDP has expanded 1.9%.

yes, we all acknowledged that when it happened
 
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you talk yet say nothing



fascinating, revealing, NOT a waste of anyone's time



at&t out a billion is not talking down

86% in crisis is not talking down

interest on the debt to approach a tril in just over 5 years is not talking down

the dangerously upside down status of our biggest and most expensive states is not talking down

the uncertainties surrounding health care, cap and trade, reg reform, is not talking down

half of those hamped already re-defaulting---not talk

gas prices, initial jobless claims, foreigners dumping our debt---not talk

4.5 million foreclosures coming in the immediate future is not talking down

no, not talking down, just talking

ie, LINKS



fascinating, do tell more

what's your favorite color?



talking, but not saying anything

that is, everyone already knows where to find gdp's

there's more to an economy than gdp, friend



really?



the states of mind of the folks comprising the economy go far to determine just whether and how much growth is actually realized



yes, we all acknowledged that when it happened

How did we get here? Everything was great when Obama took over.
 
From the Federal Reserve's just-released "Beige Book" report:

Overall economic activity increased somewhat since the last report across all Federal Reserve Districts except St. Louis, which reported "softened" economic conditions. Districts generally reported increases in retail sales and vehicle sales. Tourism spending was up in a number of Districts. Reports on the services sector were generally mixed. Manufacturing activity increased in all Districts except St. Louis, and new orders were up...

While labor markets generally remained weak, some hiring activity was evident, particularly for temporary staff. Wage pressures were characterized as minimal or contained.
 
consumer confidence, near an all time low, fell 4 points THIS WEEK

according to abc

No Springtime for Consumer Sentiment - ABC News Consumer Comfort Index

indeed, the business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research (LOL!) was sadly and "unusal[ly]" unable to proclaim the recession over: “the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature”

damn trough dates...
 
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...indeed, the business cycle dating committee of the national bureau of economic research (LOL!) was sadly and "unusal[ly]" unable to proclaim the recession over: “the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature”

damn trough dates...

NBER discussed the technical reasons behind its prudent decision to wait. NBER noted that most of the data has been positive, but that data is not yet final. NBER did not postpone its decision due to a lack of evidence of growth.

NBER explained:

Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months. The committee acts only on the basis of actual indicators and does not rely on forecasts in making its determination of the dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.
 
exactly

consumer confidence is thru the floor

and nber can't say the recession's over

too bad
 
Another week. Another "unexpected" jump in jobless claims. Another "blame it on Easter" excuse:
New weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose by 24,000 to 484,000 last week, the government said this morning, increasing worries that high unemployment will stick around for a long time.

Forecasters had expected the new jobless claims number to come in at 430,000.

The four-week moving average, which smooths out volatility in the number, rose by 7,500 last week to 457,750.

Continuing claims rose from 4.57 million to 4.64 million.

Economists suggest the spike in claims could be related to the Easter holiday.
Economy Watch - New jobless claims unexpectedly rise by 24,000
Premarket: Jobless claims disappoint - The Globe and Mail
RTÉ Business: Easter blamed for US jobless rise
 
exactly

consumer confidence is thru the floor

and nber can't say the recession's over

too bad

once again you post your partisan talking points without checking the facts. You brought up the Consumer Confidence Index - let's check it, shall we?

The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had decreased in February, rebounded in March. The Index now stands at 52.5 (1985=100), up from 46.4 in February. The Present Situation Index increased to 26.0 from 21.7. The Expectations Index improved to 70.2 from 62.9 last month.
Consumers’ assessment of current-day conditions was less negative in March. Those claiming conditions are "bad" decreased to 42.8 percent from 45.1 percent, while those claiming business conditions are "good" increased to 8.6 percent from 6.8 percent. Consumers’ assessment of the labor market was also less pessimistic. Those saying jobs are "hard to get" declined to 45.8 percent from 47.3 percent, while those saying jobs are "plentiful" increased to 4.4 percent from 4.0 percent.

Consumers’ short-term outlook improved in March. Those anticipating conditions will worsen over the next six months declined to 13.9 percent from 15.9 percent, while those anticipating an improvement increased to 18.3 percent from 16.1 percent.


chart_cci.gif

Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board
 
once again you post your partisan talking points without checking the facts. You brought up the Consumer Confidence Index - let's check it, shall we?
Maybe some added context will help you in interpreting the facts:

consumer_confidence1.gif
 
consumer confidence dropped THIS WEEK

consumer confidence is thru the floor

partisan talking points---LOL!
 
did you see the DISASTROUS breaking news yesterday concerning HOUSING?

Defaults Rise in Federal Loan Modification Program - NYTimes.com

fully SIXTY PERCENT of those who received "help" from obama's HAMP program, a "dismal failure," according to dem congresswoman jackie speier, went on to REDEFAULT within a year

and yesterday we learned (thanks to the partisan talking points put out by the NEW YORK TIMES---LOL!) that that rotten rate of raunchy no-return DOUBLED in MARCH

devastating

IT ALL STARTED WITH HOUSING
 
did you see the DISASTROUS breaking news yesterday concerning HOUSING?

Defaults Rise in Federal Loan Modification Program - NYTimes.com

fully SIXTY PERCENT of those who received "help" from obama's HAMP program, a "dismal failure," according to dem congresswoman jackie speier, went on to REDEFAULT within a year

and yesterday we learned (thanks to the partisan talking points put out by the NEW YORK TIMES---LOL!) that that rotten rate of raunchy no-return DOUBLED in MARCH

devastating

IT ALL STARTED WITH HOUSING

Yes, Obama's attempt to save the housing sector and reduce foreclosures was a dismal failure. No doubt about it. I guess it shows that the damage done by the previous administration was much worse than first thought. The housing sector can not be fixed, at least not for decades. And as unemployment grows so does the foreclosure rate. Obama just doesn't have what it takes to pull us out of the Bush financial collapse.
 
will the partisan talking points put up by the associated press (LOL!) and the paper reporting all the news that's fit to print never stop?

home foreclosures in the first quarter of 2010 rose at an ALL TIME RECORD level

Foreclosure rates surge, biggest jump in 5 years - Yahoo! News

up 35% over Q1, 09

up 9% compared to the 3 months immediately preceding

furthermore, forlorn folks facing foreclosure are 16% higher

this, despite hamp, despite efforts by banks to modify mortgages, to grant mortgage moratoria

even more ominous, the pace for next quarter is expected to ACCELERATE

no wonder nber can't say the recession is over
 
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