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Thread: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    and the biggie---DEBT

    the 2009 and 2010 budgets BORROW an astonishing THREE TRILLION dollars, some 14% of gdp

    that's not SUSTAINABLE

    the NEW YORK TIMES, the president's pet press partner (did you read politico's piece on the topic this week?), forecasts service on our debts, MERE INTEREST ALONE, will approach A TRIL PER YEAR by 2016, 2017

    the grey lady laments leadership's reliance on PHONY NUMBERS to project ITS estimation of some EIGHT HUNDRED BILLION service costs by decade's end

    the white house (like all white houses) depends on unrealistically rosey GROWTH numbers AS WELL AS fantastically friendly INTEREST RATES

    when the lady adjusted those two fundamentals underlying service costs, well, that's how SHE arrived at A TRIL PER YEAR in interest somewhere around mid decade

    very worrisome, don't you think?
    The growing fiscal challenge is entirely a different issue from the current and near-term state of the economy/labor market.

    Is the economy in the midst of a recovery? The growing body of data, including the new GDP report, show that the economy is in a moderate-paced recovery. Since the last quarter of contraction (2009 Q2), real GDP has expanded 2.7%. To put things into perspective, three quarters following the last quarter of contraction in the 1990-91 recession, real GDP expanded 1.5%. In the 2001 recession, that figure was 1.8%. A moderate-paced recovery is underway. No one here is arguing that an economic boom is underway. Moreover, I expect the long-term growth to amount to less than what occurred during the 1980s and 1990s due to the nation's debt overhang/competitiveness issues in certain economic sectors/structural damage caused by the housing bubble, etc. But again, that does not require one to ignore the reality that the economy has resumed expansion. The data show that it has.

    Is the labor market growing? Most data indicate that the labor market has stabilized. There is some data suggesting that the labor market may be in the early stages of a resumption of growth. By this summer, I expect that it will be clear that the labor market is again expanding. That does not mean that the economy will be anywhere close to full employment anytime soon. Given the sizable structural component to the unemployment problem, a full employment situation is not likely anytime soon.

    Are there major fiscal imbalances? There are. Those imbalances could undermine growth in the medium- and longer-term. They do not mean that the economy is not in a recovery right now.

    As I've commented frequently on the need for a credible fiscal consolidation effort (discretionary spending cuts; mandatory spending reform/fundamental health reform to deal with the excess cost growth issue; tax hikes) beginning as early as 2011, my recognition of the existence of such fiscal imbalances and their associated medium- and long-term economic, political, and social risks is clear.

    But that's an entirely different issue from the above two matters. Recognition of the gravity of the fiscal challenges does not require one to deny the moderate growth that is now underway nor preclude the possibility of labor market expansion that could occur in coming months as the cyclical recovery advances (as is likely despite the presence of headwinds in some sectors).

    In the end, I can understand that the resumption of economic growth and later, job growth, is inconvenient for the political leaders who forecast 'endless recession' or worse in opposing various public policy decisions/changes. That economic recovery and job growth will undermine their credibility in the face of their gloomy predictions and will likely begin to impact electoral outcomes as the recovery advances and unemployment rate begins to fall is completely their problem. That such dire forecasts and exaggeration closely echo those made in 1982-83 following a severe recession and contentious policy environment is not at all surprising in the context of human behavior.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The growing fiscal challenge is entirely a different issue from the current and near-term state of the economy/labor market.
    hardly

    the "growing fiscal challenge," as the ny times patiently explains in detail (and common english), is IN YO' FACE by about TWENTY SIXTEEN, or thereabouts

    ie, "long term" and "current/near term" are morphing into NOW

    Is the economy in the midst of a recovery?
    the economy cannot recover, almost by definition, until the FIXES for what ails us are in place

    But again, that does not require one to ignore the reality that the economy has resumed expansion
    fine, but there's a whole lot more to an economy

    As I've commented frequently on the need for a credible fiscal consolidation effort (discretionary spending cuts; mandatory spending reform/fundamental health reform to deal with the excess cost growth issue; tax hikes) beginning as early as 2011...
    1. there is no "credible fiscal consolidation effort" even being CONTEMPLATED for 2011

    2. not here on earth, leastaways

    3. maybe in some chatroom there is

    4. 2011 is way too late

    my recognition of the existence of such fiscal imbalances and their associated medium- and long-term economic, political, and social risks is clear
    good for you

    and your recognition of two plus two adding to four is equally clear, no one (who can understand you) can fault you

    In the end, I can understand that the resumption of economic growth and later, job growth, is inconvenient for the political leaders who forecast 'endless recession' or worse in opposing various public policy decisions/changes.
    1. what public policy decisions/changes?

    2. the 2009/2010 budgets?

    3. the continued hamp'ing of those already hamp'ed?

    4. the roofless reconstruction of fannie and fred, accounted by cbo already to cost the taxpayer 400B?

    5. the exemption of the f's from dead dodd's legislation?

    6. the failure to address the yuan?

    7. the mandate upon at&t and the others to book an extra billion each for obamacare?

    8. the 200B mandate placed on already bankrupt states in the form of expanded medicaid?

    9. 86% of the american people describe their economy as in crisis---are ALL of them saying so for "political convenience?"

    10. LOL!
    Last edited by The Prof; 04-30-10 at 02:39 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    hardly

    the "growing fiscal challenge," as the ny times patiently explains in detail (and common english), is IN YO' FACE by about TWENTY SIXTEEN, or thereabouts
    At least you're consistent. Ignoring the fact that such fiscal issues will require higher taxes and decreased discretionary spending.

    ie, "long term" and "current/near term" are morphing into NOW
    This is not 2017. In the absence of an economic recovery, the US will be exceedingly more challenged to tackle the long term fiscal issues. It seems backwards (at least to me) to begin addressing the fiscal uncertainties projected seven years from now, before we deal with unemployment economic confidence.

    the economy cannot recover, almost by definition, until the FIXES for what ails us are in place
    There are no "fixes" to cyclical downturns; only remedies that lessen the severity of the symptoms. Make no mistake, unemployment is not a result of the spending from Washington (you would be hard pressed to make even a somewhat relevant argument for such a statement).

    fine, but there's a whole lot more to an economy
    Employment (income determinant) and consumer spending (a function of the income determinant) are the main drivers in the US economy. Nobody has said housing is not an issue, but it is and will be a slow process. There is no way to boost the real estate sector without driving up long term interest rates.

    1. there is no "credible fiscal consolidation effort" even being CONTEMPLATED for 2011
    Do you have anything to support such an empty statement? How about one of those nice articles you seem to fancy; the ones from months ago?

    2. 2011 is way too late
    Incorrect! Given the content of your recent posts, i am very much so justified in this statement.

    and your recognition of two plus two adding to four is equally clear, no one (who can understand you) can fault you
    Non sequitur. Nothing you have posted negates both the objectivity and accuracy of Don's post(s). Absolutely nothing (because your posts lack both familiarity and substance).

    1. what public policy decisions/changes?

    2. the 2009/2010 budgets?
    Already addressed.

    3. the continued hamp'ing of those already hamp'ed?
    At least make a minimal attempt at clarity.

    4. the roofless reconstruction of fannie and fred, accounted by cbo already to cost the taxpayer 400B?
    Opinionated drivel and nothing more.

    5. the exemption of the f's from dead dodd's legislation?
    Just a political talking point.

    6. the failure to address the yuan?
    Provide a detailed response on how you would address this issue. Keep in mind the thin line between "gains in consuming outside ones productive capacity" and "trade imbalance".

    7. the mandate upon at&t and the others to book an extra billion each for obamacare?
    This has already been addressed ad nauseam.

    8. the 200B mandate placed on already bankrupt states in the form of expanded medicaid?
    So the Federal government should pick up that tab? Or could you just be politicizing the health care bill because your favorite talk radio host does so on a daily basis.

    9. 86% of the american people describe their economy as in crisis---are ALL of them saying so for "political convenience?"
    86% of a poll, not 86% of the American people. For the record, 86% of the American people are not politically active, or financially/economically literate.

    10. LOL!
    The jokes on you.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    At least you're consistent. Ignoring the fact that such fiscal issues will require higher taxes and decreased discretionary spending.
    tell it to obama, cuz he aint doin neither

    "decreased discretionary spending," by the way, aint gonna cut it

    ask don

    LOL!

    This is not 2017. In the absence of an economic recovery, the US will be exceedingly more challenged to tackle the long term fiscal issues. It seems backwards (at least to me) to begin addressing the fiscal uncertainties projected seven years from now, before we deal with unemployment economic confidence.
    don's the one calling for a "credible fiscal consolidation effort" by 2011

    There are no "fixes" to cyclical downturns
    there are, however, fixes for the causes of the downturns

    hello

    Make no mistake, unemployment is not a result of the spending from Washington (you would be hard pressed to make even a somewhat relevant argument for such a statement).
    who you arguin with now?

    none of my links (LOL!) suggests such

    Nobody has said housing is not an issue, but it is and will be a slow process.
    unfortunately, it's going backwards

    commerce's own report has housing investment down a terrifying TEN POINT NINE %

    foreclosures are projected to RISE by a savage SIXTY PERCENT this year over awful 09

    There is no way to boost the real estate sector without driving up long term interest rates.
    i know, that's why there's no way out

    despite all the polysyllabic optimism from certain quarters

    Do you have anything to support such an empty statement?
    what, that leadership has offered NOTHING in the way of that "credible fiscal consolidation effort" we're all looking for?

    LOL!

    just what "credible fiscal consolidation" is in the offing?

    How about one of those nice articles you seem to fancy; the ones from months ago?
    the oldest article linked is november, last year

    it's the ny times piece that explains how interest payments will approach a tril per year by right around mid decade

    read it

    it answers several of the other questions you've put to me in the past

    LOL!

    Incorrect! Given the content of your recent posts, i am very much so justified in this statement.
    sorry, 2011 is too late to get started on the cfc, credible fiscal consolidation (LOL!)

    ask bernanke

    Bernanke says prompt action needed on deficit - Yahoo! News

    ask orszag

    UPDATE 1-W.House's Orszag warns of dangers of huge deficits | Reuters

    ask the commission

    ?Debt Like Cancer? Addressed by Obama Commission on U.S. Debt - Bloomberg.com

    Non sequitur. Nothing you have posted negates both the objectivity and accuracy of Don's post(s).
    in my opinion don, when he's not telling us his personal projections (which we all treasure), merely states the obvious

    Opinionated drivel and nothing more.
    "Together the two firms [fannie and fred] have already tapped $125 billion from government lifelines and the Congressional Budget Office predicts they ultimately will drain $380 billion. That would far exceed the final tabs for rescuing the big banks, the automakers or even insurance behemoth American International Group (AIG)."

    "Fannie and Freddie aren't mentioned in either the Senate or House financial regulatory reform bills."

    Why Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Continue To Cost US Taxpayers Billions

    Just a political talking point.
    "The Treasury said on Dec. 24 it would provide an unlimited amount of assistance to the companies as needed for the next three years to alleviate market concern that the government lifeline for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest source of money for U.S. home loans, could lapse or be exhausted."

    U.S. to Lose $400 Billion on Fannie, Freddie, Wallison Says - Bloomberg.com

    Provide a detailed response on how you would address this issue.
    the yuan?

    ask obama, ask bernanke, they're the ones getting paid to solve these problems

    So the Federal government should pick up that tab?
    well, someone should

    cuz the 200B in expanded medicaid costs HAVE been mandated on new york, california, pennsylvania, michigan...

    and our states ARE drastically upside down, as you know

    how are we ever gonna get to cfc (LOL!) with this "mother of unfunded mandates," as departing dem governor of tennessee phil bredesen so famously calls it

    Or could you just be politicizing the health care bill because your favorite talk radio host does so on a daily basis.
    dr laura does health care?

    86% of a poll, not 86% of the American people.
    that's what a poll is, silly

    For the record, 86% of the American people are not politically active, or financially/economically literate.
    still, they're the ones who decide who sits in the white house, the senate, the state capitols...

    The jokes on you.
    you sound like obama

    President Obama's strategy gets personal - Jonathan Allen and Carol E. Lee - POLITICO.com

    LOL!

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    in my opinion don, when he's not telling us his personal projections (which we all treasure), merely states the obvious...
    Sadly, the "obvious," namely that the economy is in the midst of a moderate-paced recovery, seems less than obvious. For example, loud denials of the ongoing moderate economic recovery and stabilization/possible emerging resumption of growth in the labor market that is broadcast almost daily by political pundits/commentators distorts the picture of what actually is happening economically.

    Why do, for example, certain talk show hosts talk down the ongoing economic recovery even as the evidence for the recovery mounts? They are peddling political interests, not economic analysis. The reality of an economic recovery is highly inconvenient with respect to the entrenched political positions they adopted, often with sweeping and exaggerated rhetoric. After all, according to those pundits, the fiscal stimulus plan (which one could argue for or against on cost-benefit propositions, efficiency, etc.) wasn't supposed to allow for a resumption of growth. Now, despite all the angry rhetoric and grim doom-and-gloom forecasts they had broadcast over the air waves almost ad nauseum, it is clear to objective observers that the economy has turned. In addition, there is emerging evidence that the job market is starting to turn, as well.

    Finally, as far as dates or ideas are concerned, I cite them for illustrative purposes. That, for example, I mentioned the 2011 starting point for fiscal consolidation (message #108 in this thread and elsewhere) is not so much a matter of "personal opinion" but an assessment consistent with macroeconomic developments and principles of mainstream economics (namely the widespread belief that withdrawal of stimulus/fiscal consolidation should wait until the recovery is sustained). Not surprisingly, in its 4/21 World Economic Outlook, the IMF advised, "Looking further ahead, if macroeconomic developments proceed as expected, most advanced economies should embark on significant fiscal consolidation in 2011."

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    loud denials of the ongoing moderate economic recovery and stabilization/possible emerging resumption of growth in the labor market that is broadcast almost daily by political pundits/commentators distorts the picture of what actually is happening economically.
    oh, no, my esteemed, eggheady amigo, what's happening in the housing market and to the deficit and with the service costs and concerning f&f and about at&t and consumer confidence and greece and the state budgets and what's not happening concerning the yuan and the credible fiscal consolidations are tragically NOT DISTORTIONS

    Why do, for example, certain talk show hosts talk down the ongoing economic recovery even as the evidence for the recovery mounts?
    i don't know, you'd have to ask them, whoever they are

    but i'll tell you, your psychology is not as impressive (to me) as your economics, even if the latter do strike me as somewhat tedious

    despite all the angry rhetoric
    the only anger i see is 3 posts up

    it is clear to objective observers that the economy has turned
    86% aren't objective?

    That, for example, I mentioned the 2011 starting point for fiscal consolidation (message #108 in this thread and elsewhere) is not so much a matter of "personal opinion" but an assessment consistent with macroeconomic developments and principles of mainstream economics
    yes, i know, i appreciate that

    those macroeconomic developments and principles are spot on

    unfortunately, the cfc's you call for are NOT happening

    and they're not going to happen, as you've repeatedly intimated

    sad
    Last edited by The Prof; 04-30-10 at 05:40 PM.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    For the fourth month in a row, the U.S. experienced net job growth. April saw the net creation of 290,000 jobs. Average weekly hours also ticked higher for the second consecutive month, further underlining the cyclical economic rebound that is now underway.

    However, as the labor market grew even more sharply (805,000) on optimism that the labor market had stabilized and had possibly been moving into the early stages of renewed expansion, the nation's unemployment rate rose to 9.9%. Often as the labor market stabilizes, workers re-entering the workforce exceed job growth. That phenomenom contributes to the unemployment rate's being a lagging indicator of economic growth.

    On the more worrisome note concerning the structural component of unemployment, the share of workers without jobs for 27 or more weeks increased to 45.9%.

    The full report can be found at: http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    NINE POINT NINE!

    ouch!

    that's devastating

    i'm very sorry

    thanks for the update

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    NINE POINT NINE!

    ouch!

    that's devastating

    i'm very sorry

    thanks for the update
    And yesterday's 340-point drop is being followed this morning by another 200-point drop.

    Meanwhile, the Dow is down almost 900 in the past four days.

    There's so much air in this "recovery", Wall Street might float away.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by Erod View Post
    And yesterday's 340-point drop is being followed this morning by another 200-point drop.

    Meanwhile, the Dow is down almost 900 in the past four days.

    There's so much air in this "recovery", Wall Street might float away.
    Erod,

    Events on Wall Street and the Greek debt situation/growing concerns over other parts of Europe do not mean that there is no cyclical recovery underway. Should the stock sell-off persist leading to a rapid significant decline in valuations e.g., 20%-30% over the next few weeks/months, or the contagion from Greece spread, those shocks could weaken or even undermine the current economic recovery, that just now may be spreading into the labor market. In short, there remain headwinds (commercial real estate sector) and near-term risks (Greek debt situation, among others). The handoff from stimulus to private demand could also be somewhat tricky.

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