Page 38 of 45 FirstFirst ... 283637383940 ... LastLast
Results 371 to 380 of 446

Thread: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

  1. #371
    Sage
    misterman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Last Seen
    02-09-12 @ 08:41 AM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,913

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    In theory, yes. But that has not always been the norm. For one recent example, can one envision the likelihood of the 2001 and 2003 "temporary" tax cuts being permitted to expire when their are slated to do so under law. Such an outcome is highly unlikely. Although I believe that maintaining some of the tax relief makes sense, I also believe that the provisions that will be retained should be fully financed via offsetting fiscal measures.
    I don't disagree. I'm just noting that this would require Congressional action. The stimulus, like the taxes, expire.

    With the stimulus, there is alot of political angst against extending it. There will be less with extending tax cuts, since everybody loves to get those and every Congressman loves doling them out.

    Absolutely. Politically, it is easier to "sell" accommodation than "sacrifice." Unfortunately, over time, what would ordinarily have been cyclical budget deficits are transformed into structural ones when the accommodation is made permanent de jure or de facto.
    Yep. As soon as the economy is up and running again, most people will forget all about it and go back to the same old way of doing things.

  2. #372
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Key points from the IMF's report:

    1. The U.S. economy is recovering.
    2. Fiscal stimulus has contributed to the recovery (1 percentage point in 2009).
    3. Moderate growth is forecast for 2010 and 2011.
    4. The withdrawal of stimulus in 2011 will have a damping effect on growth, as private final demand remains sluggish.
    5. Uncertainty remains "elevated."
    your #5 rather undermines the validity of "forecasting"

    if one is to judge by the narrow definition of "successive quarters of negative growth," there is no debate about the numbers, it's true...

    but an economy is a whole lot more than just negative gdp figures

    if you look at housing, public debt, consumer confidence, foreign investment, unemployment, sacramento and albany and lansing, all the new taxes in health care and cap and trade and VAT...

    and, as noted above, all that elevated uncertainty...

    well...

    the exclusives, the elites, the egghead economists are gonna forever mumble their mumbo jumbo's, they're eternally gonna expatiate outta both sides of their effluence, qualifying every claim with butt covering caveats, obscuring every observation with necromancical formulae...

    it is what it is

    if one looks at our landscape and sees reason for optimism, good

    america, however, is very, very worried

    you might even call her depressed, y'know, deep down inside

  3. #373
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    11-28-17 @ 04:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,690

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    your #5 rather undermines the validity of "forecasting"
    Forecasting is not anything close to 100% accurate, no matter the field. Forecasting is a probabilistic exercise. There is always the risk of error.

    With respect to the IMF's latest outlook, although the IMF expects the U.S. economy, among most others, to grow in 2010 and 2011, its confidence in the projection is lower than normal ("elevated" uncertainty). However, if one looks back at the preceding WEO (October 2009), both the IMF's growth expectations and its confidence in the projections have increased.

    but an economy is a whole lot more than just negative gdp figures
    GDP is just the broadest overall measure. If one is trying to gain a strong insight into the economy, one needs to look at multiple indicators and get into the details.

    if you look at housing, public debt, consumer confidence, foreign investment, unemployment, sacramento and albany and lansing, all the new taxes in health care and cap and trade and VAT...
    There is no dispute that various sectors of the economy are in a differing state. Housing is stabilizing but remains weak (some markets have experienced growth in recent months). The commercial sector may decline further. Rising public debt, still excessive mortgage debt relative to the previous historic peak, and continued high household debt remain problematic. The unemployment rate is likely to remain high for some time to come, especially as there is a larger structural component this time around. U.S. competitiveness remains an issue in certain industries/economic sectors. The policy front contains some significant uncertainties e.g., whether the U.S. will, in fact, embark on a credible fiscal consolidation program.

    the exclusives, the elites, the egghead economists are gonna forever mumble their mumbo jumbo's, they're eternally gonna expatiate outta both sides of their effluence, qualifying every claim with butt covering caveats, obscuring every observation with necromancical formulae...
    Caveats are a part of any credible forecasting exercise. Noting the existence of risks and delineating the major ones, is a part of any credible effort and should be fully disclosed.

    if one looks at our landscape and sees reason for optimism, good
    The general consensus among economists that moderate economic growth is likely in 2010 and 2011 is not an expression of unreasonable optimism. In addition, it does not, in any way, preclude recognition of some substantial medium- and long-term risks.

    Four such risks (among others) include:

    1) Implications of continuing U.S. dependence on oil in the context that little has been done to address the issue despite twin oil shocks in the 1970s, the oil price spike of 2008, shifting geopolitical trends e.g., China is now a larger buyer of Saudi oil than the U.S. giving Saudi Arabia greater leverage vis-a-vis the U.S. than in the past, etc. The balance of power continues to evolve, too.

    2) U.S. fiscal imbalances driven largely by its mandatory spending programs, increasing share of budget deficits that is structural in nature, etc. Juxtaposed against that backdrop is the rising number of alternative investment options e.g., those associated with rapidly growing economies that could lead to increased global competition for capital flows and disadvantage the states that are unwilling or unable to tackle their debt issues, among other challenges.

    3) Continued "excess cost problem" associated with U.S. health care. The problem is related largely to industry structure/practices/productivity challenges, etc. Against the backdrop of demographic change, the system's deep-seated flaws will exacerbate an already bad problem and, in the absence of reform, will dramatically increase the nation's fiscal burdens and undermine its economic competitiveness.

    4) Strategic issues related to a multi-polar world in which the relative economic and military power of the U.S. will be less than it was during the 20the century. Growing possibility that disparities in educational attainment could lead to some other state's gaining a qualitative edge in at least some key technologies be it space-related, alternative energy (a huge focus for China in graduate programs and scientific research), military technologies, etc.

    Citing such risks, among others, does not mean that one cannot expect moderate economic growth for 2010 and 2011. Some even have rosier ideas. At the same time, it also does not require one to expect the worst.

    Present and future policy decisions, the overall state of the U.S. economy, geopolitical developments, etc., will shape that course. Right now, even as fundamental health/mandatory spending reform is politically difficult for the U.S., addressing those challenges is not insurmountable. At the same time, even as, let's say, a U.S. sovereign debt crisis is not a certainty, neither is the idea that such an outcome is unthinkable. Such crises have impacted developed and developing nations. There is no special reason that the U.S. would be immune from such a crisis or default.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 04-22-10 at 02:57 PM.

  4. #374
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    1) Implications of continuing U.S. dependence on oil in the context that little has been done to address the issue despite twin oil shocks in the 1970s, the oil price spike of 2008, shifting geopolitical trends e.g., China is now a larger buyer of Saudi oil than the U.S. giving Saudi Arabia greater leverage vis-a-vis the U.S. than in the past, etc. The balance of power continues to evolve, too.

    2) U.S. fiscal imbalances driven largely by its mandatory spending programs, increasing share of budget deficits that is structural in nature, etc. Juxtaposed against that backdrop is the rising number of alternative investment options e.g., those associated with rapidly growing economies that could lead to increased global competition for capital flows and disadvantage the states that are unwilling or unable to tackle their debt issues, among other challenges.

    3) Continued "excess cost problem" associated with U.S. health care. The problem is related largely to industry structure/practices/productivity challenges, etc. Against the backdrop of demographic change, the system's deep-seated flaws will exacerbate an already bad problem and, in the absence of reform, will dramatically increase the nation's fiscal burdens and undermine its economic competitiveness.

    4) Strategic issues related to a multi-polar world in which the relative economic and military power of the U.S. will be less than it was during the 20the century. Growing possibility that disparities in educational attainment could lead to some other state's gaining a qualitative edge in at least some key technologies be it space-related, alternative energy (a huge focus for China in graduate programs and scientific research), military technologies, etc.
    ooh, those sound pretty serious

    At the same time, it also does require one to expect the worst.
    i know what you mean

  5. #375
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    11-28-17 @ 04:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,690

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    i know what you mean
    It was a typo. The sentence should have noted that "it also does not require one to expect the worst."

  6. #376
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    11-28-17 @ 04:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,690

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Today, CNBC reported, "U.S. consumer confidence rose in April to the highest level since the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008, driven by growing optimism about the labor market, according to a private sector report released Tuesday."

    To keep things in context, one should look at the details. The Conference Board's press release summarizing the details can be found at: Consumer Confidence Index - The Conference Board

  7. #377
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    57.9 stinks

    meanwhile, a less eggheaded estimation of what's going on in america, one sorry snapshot:

    Hundreds Camp Out For Job Opps In Queens - wcbstv.com

  8. #378
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    11-28-17 @ 04:47 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,690

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    This afternoon, the Federal Reserve released its latest monetary policy statement. In opening paragraph, which contains the Fed's latest macroeconomic discussion, the Fed's language noted some recent improvements in the labor market, household spending, and residential housing market since its March 16 statement. This somewhat more upbeat assessment reflects the growing body of evidence highlighting a moderate-paced economic recovery and the employment situation's possibly nearing or having moved into the early stages of net job growth.

    Key differences: April 28 vs. March 16:
    • “The labor market is beginning to improve” vs. “the labor market is stabilizing.”
    • “Growth in household spending has picked up recently…” vs. “Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate…”
    • “Housing starts have edged up…” vs. “housing starts have been flat…”

    A comparison of the macroeconomic description provided in the FOMC’s monetary policy statement follows:

    March 16, 2010:
    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.

    April 28, 2010:
    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.

  9. #379
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years


  10. #380
    Sage

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Last Seen
    Today @ 08:45 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    8,351

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    This afternoon, the Federal Reserve released its latest monetary policy statement. In opening paragraph, which contains the Fed's latest macroeconomic discussion, the Fed's language noted some recent improvements in the labor market, household spending, and residential housing market since its March 16 statement. This somewhat more upbeat assessment reflects the growing body of evidence highlighting a moderate-paced economic recovery and the employment situation's possibly nearing or having moved into the early stages of net job growth.

    Key differences: April 28 vs. March 16:
    • “The labor market is beginning to improve” vs. “the labor market is stabilizing.”
    • “Growth in household spending has picked up recently…” vs. “Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate…”
    • “Housing starts have edged up…” vs. “housing starts have been flat…”

    A comparison of the macroeconomic description provided in the FOMC’s monetary policy statement follows:

    March 16, 2010:
    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing. Household spending is expanding at a moderate rate but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly. However, investment in nonresidential structures is declining, housing starts have been flat at a depressed level, and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.

    April 28, 2010:
    Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve. Growth in household spending has picked up recently but remains constrained by high unemployment, modest income growth, lower housing wealth, and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly; however, investment in nonresidential structures is declining and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts have edged up but remain at a depressed level. While bank lending continues to contract, financial market conditions remain supportive of economic growth.
    I think you missed another key point.

    Business spending on equipment and software has risen significantly.

    So the key question for the Fed is if it has enough independent thinking/ actions to avoid another bubble and perhaps horrible inflation.

Page 38 of 45 FirstFirst ... 283637383940 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •