From Message #220 in this thread, I noted:
...the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery. Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S., with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011 (under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery).
While one is waiting for the IMF's projection, and I continue to like the idea of +2.5% to +3.0% real GDP growth this year, the AP's survey of economists revealed that the mean expected real GDP growth among its respondents was 3.1% for 2010. That's a little rosier than my own thinking. Nonetheless, it's the latest suggestion that the economy is on a moderate growth path.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is waiting for technical reasons before declaring an official end to the recession. NBER did note the recent economic improvement. NBER explained:
Although most indicators have turned up, the committee decided that the determination of the trough date on the basis of current data would be premature. Many indicators are quite preliminary at this time and will be revised in coming months. The committee acts only on the basis of actual indicators and does not rely on forecasts in making its determination of the dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity.