Page 23 of 45 FirstFirst ... 13212223242533 ... LastLast
Results 221 to 230 of 446

Thread: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

  1. #221
    Tavern Bartender
    Constitutionalist
    American's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Virginia
    Last Seen
    Yesterday @ 10:49 AM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    76,323

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Several quick things:

    First, some of the links provide old data. The most recent Employment Report data showed net job creation of 162,000 jobs in March. The Conference Board's most recent survey of consumer confidence saw a rebound to 52.5. The overall trends in the data have shown improvement. The economy has resumed growth. The Labor Market stabilized and may be in the early stages of job growth.

    Second, headwinds, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, persist. Oil prices have not risen to levels that would likely choke off economic growth.

    Third, the CBO's discussion of the nation's fiscal situation concerns the longer-term. It does not point to a situation where there is an imminent threat of a debt crisis.

    Finally, the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery. Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S., with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011 (under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery).

    Needless to say, there could be some wildcards e.g., an external shock that could adversely impact the U.S. economy. But right now, there is mounting evidence that a cyclical recovery is underway even as some weaknesses and headwinds persist.
    Not even you could possibly believe that.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

  2. #222
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    First, some of the links provide old data.
    the oldest story is november, 09, the new york times piece saying that service on debt, MERE INTEREST ALONE, is soon (2016, 2017, 2018) to approach ONE TRIL per year

    the gist of the lady's lament centers on her realization that the administration's projections of debt service are wildly rosey due to its assumption of unrealistically low interest rates

    News Headlines

    as i'm sure a person of your erudition appreciates, the admin's debt projections are also unrealistically reliant on probably unreachable gdp growth rates---3.2% in 2010, 4.0% in '11, then 4.6 and 4.2 in 2012 and '13

    Economists wonder: Obama too optimistic? - Business - GMANews.TV - Official Website of GMA News and Public Affairs - Latest Philippine News

    we are looking at an explosion of debt service in the in-your-face, immediate (ie, short term) future

    The most recent Employment Report data showed net job creation of 162,000 jobs in March.
    more recent is the labor dept's report thursday saying first time claims rose by 18,000 for the week ending april 3

    http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Initia....html?x=0&.v=7

    The Conference Board's most recent survey of consumer confidence saw a rebound to 52.5.
    that's abysmal

    in february it fell to a 10 month low, and "attitudes about current conditions fell to the lowest level in 27 years"

    you're pointing to a very small rebound from a near all time low

    U.S. Economy: Confidence Falls to Lowest Since April (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

    The Labor Market stabilized and may be in the early stages of job growth.
    maybe...

    Second, headwinds, particularly in the commercial real estate sector, persist. Oil prices have not risen to levels that would likely choke off economic growth.
    they're not helping

    and summer's coming

    Third, the CBO's discussion of the nation's fiscal situation concerns the longer-term. It does not point to a situation where there is an imminent threat of a debt crisis.
    tell it to the governors of california, new york and at least 20 other states

    as for dc, 2017 is not so far off

    Finally, the IMF's forthcoming World Economic Outlook (to be released April 21) will add to the growing number of public and private reports showing a U.S. recovery.
    fine

    Furthermore, it could project 2010 real GDP growth of +2.5% to +3.0% for the U.S.
    well, that would be a disaster, cuz as i linked above, the white house is counting on 3.2% for '10 just to avert those keynes-killing interest obligations

    with perhaps ~2.5% +/- 0.25% growth for 2011
    this is what the grey lady and her philippino friends are talking about

    obama projects 4.0% for '11

    (under the assumption that fiscal stimulus would be winding down, interest rates would remain low, and the financial system would continue its slow recovery)
    ok...

    Needless to say, there could be some wildcards...
    you come across as awfully cavalier about catastrophe
    Last edited by The Prof; 04-09-10 at 08:29 PM.

  3. #223
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    12-13-17 @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,691

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    the gist of the lady's lament centers on her realization that the administration's projections of debt service are wildly rosey due to its assumption of unrealistically low interest rates
    I tend to think CBO's less optimistic idea on the budget outlook will wind up closer to what happens. But again, that has implications down the road. It is not likely to abort the young economic recovery.

    as i'm sure a person of your erudition appreciates, the admin's debt projections are also unrealistically reliant on probably unreachable gdp growth rates---3.2% in 2010, 4.0% in '11, then 4.6 and 4.2 in 2012 and '13
    The 2010 figure might well be realized, especially if firms rebuild inventories a little faster than I suspect they will. I believe the 2011-2013 outlook is probably too aggressive.

    more recent is the labor dept's report thursday saying first time claims rose by 18,000 for the week ending april 3
    Those numbers will continue to bounce around. However, the trend will generally be lower and it is plausible that the first < 400,000 figure could occur sometime beginning in Q3. For now, the labor market has stabilized. It may be in the early stages of a resumption of growth.

    tell it to the governors of california, new york and at least 20 other states
    My comments pertain to the federal debt situation. Clearly, a number of states are facing fiscal crises. Indeed, the fiscal disasters in a number of states have demolished the myth that state and local governments were better stewards of taxpayer resources than the federal government. In doing so, the case for devolution (which can make sense from a constitutional perspective) has been badly damaged.

    you come across as awfully cavalier about catastrophe
    By "wildcards," I mean relatively low probability but high impact events. Examples might include military strikes on Iran followed by Iranian retaliation against the Persian Gulf's oil infrastructure or Iran's shutting down the Strait of Hormuz; a bursting of what could be a swelling real estate bubble in China, which would have adverse global economic consequences and disrupt an important source of financing for the U.S. government; the onset of a fresh financial crisis somewhere in Eastern Europe that might produce global contagion; an unexpected spike in the price of crude oil well above $100 per barrel; some "unknown unknown," etc.

  4. #224
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    with all due respect, your projections and forecasts without any documentation to back them are (to me) as valuable as anybody else's

    i've heard it all each a hundred times (i'm very old)

    meanwhile, we know, as established thru linked articles from msm's above:

    1. we're looking at a ton of foreclosures in terrible '10

    2. far more than we saw in awful '09

    3. our biggest and most states are bankrupt

    4. we're looking at about a tril a year in interest alone in about 5 years

    5. that means we're looking at a good half that, or more, in, oh, say, 3 years, maybe 2

    6. long term projections of doom we all grew up with are telescoping dangerously into the immediate windshield

    7. the cost of merely staying in business for giant employers like at&t has grown a billion dollars due to obamacare

    8. foreigner investors are increasingly reluctant to play

    9. consumer confidence is near historic lows

    10. the price of oil is rising

    11. unemployment claims are still rising

    12. uncertainty abounds---employers, investors, consumers, congresspeople are universally confused as to exactly how all these radical changes, social and economic, are precisely gonna affect them, health care, cap and trade, wall street reg...

    once more, every claim is linked above

  5. #225
    Liberal Fascist For Life!


    Redress's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2008
    Location
    Georgia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 10:55 PM
    Lean
    Very Liberal
    Posts
    93,341
    Blog Entries
    2

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    meanwhile, we know, as established thru linked articles from msm's above:
    The Philippine news is MSM?
    We became a great nation not because we are a nation of cynics. We became a great nation because we are a nation of believers - Lindsey Graham

    Quote Originally Posted by Fiddytree View Post
    Uh oh Megyn...your vagina witchcraft is about ready to be exposed.

  6. #226
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    A TRILLION PER YEAR BY 2018

    FOUR POINT FIVE MILLION FORECLOSURES IN 2010

    SACRAMENTO AND ALBANY ARE BILLIONS BEHIND

    and he focuses on GMATV!

    LOL!

    can you get any smaller?

  7. #227
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    are you following the goings on in greece?

    from reuters india (LOL!):

    WRAPUP 4-Greece plunges deeper into crisis, banks, euro hit | Reuters

    because, y'know, SPLASHES that size make ripples...

  8. #228
    Professor

    Join Date
    Dec 2009
    Location
    Nashville, TN
    Last Seen
    11-21-14 @ 03:20 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Slightly Liberal
    Posts
    2,120

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    Sorry to piss on your wet blanket.

    The only people doing cartwheels over 162k jobs will be partisan leftists ecstatic that things haven't gotten worse for yet another month.

    If you want to know what an economic turnaround looks like, try three years of consistent job gains averaging somewhere between 250 and 300k a month. Since our first job gains last November, we're averaging what? 23k?

    Read this.

    What we're about to have is 1982 all over again.

    The similarities are striking.

  9. #229
    Sage

    Join Date
    Oct 2007
    Location
    New York
    Last Seen
    12-13-17 @ 12:40 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    11,691

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    To provide some clarity on the economy, here are a few quick snapshots:

    Real GDP (Annualized Change)
    2008 Q1 -0.7%
    2008 Q2 +1.5%
    2008 Q3 -2.7%
    2008 Q4 -5.4%
    2009 Q1 -6.4%
    2009 Q2 -0.7%
    2009 Q3 +2.2%
    2009 Q4 +5.6%

    The IMF will be coming out with its estimates for 2010 Real GDP growth on April 21. My guess is that the IMF will forecast 2.5% to 3.0% real GDP growth for 2010.

    The Federal Reserve's latest forecast is a more robust 2.8% to 3.5%. FWIW, I expect that this idea is a little too aggressive.

    Initial Weekly Unemployment Claims:

    Weekly Figure:
    Week ended 4/3/2010: 460,000
    6 months ago: 531,000
    12 months ago: 643,000

    Four-week moving average:
    Period ended 4/3/2010: 450,250
    6 months ago: 540,500
    12 months ago: 643,000

    Monthly Employment Changes:
    The labor market has stabilized and may be in the early stages of a resumption of growth.


    Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Federal Reserve Discussions:

    3/10/2010 Beige Book:

    Reports from the twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicated that economic conditions continued to expand since the last report, although severe snowstorms in early February held back activity in several Districts...

    Next Beige Book: 4/14

    Minutes from 3/16/2010:

    The information reviewed at the March 16 meeting suggested that economic activity expanded at a moderate pace in early 2010. Business investment in equipment and software seemed to have picked up, consumer spending increased further in January, and private employment would likely have turned up in February in the absence of the snowstorms that affected the East Coast.

    Sentiment:

    Business Roundtable CEO Survey has shown recovering confidence.

    University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index: Confidence is above figures from a year ago and the Index has moved erratically higher.

    Oil Consumption:

    U.S. oil consumption, which can provide anecdotal evidence concerning business activity, is presently running about 1.9% above figures from a year ago. That reflects the increase in GDP since the economy bottomed out in 2009 Q3. Since that time, real GDP has increased 1.9%.
    Last edited by donsutherland1; 04-09-10 at 10:25 PM.

  10. #230
    Sage

    Join Date
    Jul 2009
    Last Seen
    05-16-15 @ 02:32 PM
    Lean
    Undisclosed
    Posts
    12,537

    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    consumer confidence is near an all time low

    america's gut is not as optimistic as you, i'm afraid

    it's probably cuzza all the foreclosures dad has to pass, y'know, on his way home from work

    cuz there're so many more than there were a year ago

    and a year ago was really bad

    it's probably cuz mom has been so hopeless so long about the state of affairs in sacto

    their depression certainly relates to both of them knowing the impossible-to-repay sums being borrowed and spent by both state and feds

    CBO report: Debt will rise to 90% of GDP - Washington Times

    dad just learned his employer has to come up with an extra billion just to stay in business

    and mom, a public school teacher, was informed this week that her state pension is as insolvent as obama's new medicare

    Study: California Public Pensions Underfunded by Over $500B - California Healthline

    of course, she teaches math, which doesn't help...

    consumer confidence is near an all time low for real reasons
    Last edited by The Prof; 04-10-10 at 12:44 AM.

Page 23 of 45 FirstFirst ... 13212223242533 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •