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Thread: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

  1. #111
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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    But overall, there does appear to be a growing consensus of labor market stabilization. I suspect that the labor markets are moving into the early stages of a resumption of growth. In coming months, despite some volatility, I suspect that the tendency will be toward net job growth.
    People have been assuring us of "labor market stabilization" for months now, so color me unimpressed with these latest reports, which deviate little from our present, flatlined job situation.

    Wake me up when we start to see consecutive months of accelerating job growth.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by Taylor View Post
    People have been assuring us of "labor market stabilization" for months now, so color me unimpressed with these latest reports, which deviate little from our present, flatlined job situation.

    Wake me up when we start to see consecutive months of accelerating job growth.
    Okay, go back to sleep.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    no spin but pure empirics:

    1. it takes 125,000 to 200,000 jobs per month just to keep pace with population growth

    2. we are looking at 4.5 million more foreclosures in 2010, up 60% from 2009 which was beyond-belief bad

    3. at&t had to book an extra bil for first quarter 2010, verizon did 980M---what's that gonna do to employment?

    4. consumer confidence in february, 2010, hit a 10 month low

    U.S. Economy: Confidence Falls to Lowest Since April (Update1) - Bloomberg.com

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by Gander View Post
    Suppose the stimulus had entered the economy entirely in the form of tax cuts? The effect on the deficit would remain the same, but an arguably more efficient allocation process would have taken place. Is there any reason to believe that large tax cuts are any less efficacious than large fiscal stimuli in increasing aggregate demand? Furthermore, isn't it more likely that the government will eventually raise taxes as opposed to cutting spending?
    Three quick things:

    1. Tax cuts work well to remedy supply shocks e.g., the early 1980s was an ideal time for the use of that remedy. The tax cuts pushed the supply curve to the right, helping boost production relative to demand. As a result, coupled with tight monetary policy, the supply side remedy helped tame inflation.

    2. Spending increases work well during demand shocks. As aggregate demand was collapsing, increased government spending was the appropriate remedy. Cutting taxes would have only led to fearful firms hoarding the cash rather than using it to sustain production in the teeth of crumbling demand. The result might well have been little or no economic boost and a higher probability of a destructive deflationary episode.

    3. Government has demonstrated a bias toward accommodation. It has demonstrated little appetite in the past either for repealing tax cuts or spending hikes when sustainable economic growth unfolded. That bias toward accomodation has helped contribute to the nation's structural budget deficits.

    I agree with everything except the tax increases. I don't see our longterm fiscal imbalances as being a revenue problem, but a spending problem. The excessive spending has created and perpetuated an entitlement mentality amongst our populace, which is having a deleterious psychological effect on already vulnerable demographics.
    Unfortunately, the nation cannot grow its way out of its structural budget deficits. It is also highly unlikely that the federal government will substantially cut discretionary spending (which would require a sizable cut in defense spending, too, which would be difficult to justify given the national security threats/challenges facing the nation). Moreover, even sharp discretionary spending cuts would not alleviate the long-term burdens associated with the nation's mandatory spending programs. At this time, dramatic restructuring of Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid is not likely. Furthermore, restructuring Medicare will require fundamental health care reform aimed at addressing the excessive cost issue, something that the recently enacted law did not address. Hence, a middle ground that includes some tax hikes appears to be the most feasible course, but even that pragmatic approach is not assured in the near-term.

    At some point, foreign capital will not be as easy to come by and long-term interest rates will rise. As those rates rise, the overall cost of capital will increase and that will have a drag on the economy. In that context, to the extent that modest tax hikes help ensure low long-term interest rates via a demonstration of a credible fiscal consolidation policy, that development would be economically beneficial.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    foreign demand for us treasuries drops by record amount, december, 09:

    Foreigners cut Treasury stakes; rates could rise - Yahoo! Finance

    service of the national debt, mere interest alone, will approach 1T per year by about 2017 as interest rates are adjusted to reality, new york times, november:

    News Headlines
    Last edited by The Prof; 04-07-10 at 12:00 AM.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    service of the national debt, mere interest alone, will approach 1T per year by about 2017 as interest rates are adjusted to reality, new york times, november:

    s[/url]
    Obama will be long gone by then, so the republican president can deal with that.
    "This Administration will constantly strive to promote an ownership society in America. We want more people owning their own home. It is in our national interest that more people own their own home. After all, if you own your own home, you have a vital stake in the future of our country."" GWB

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    no spin but pure empirics:

    ...at&t had to book an extra bil for first quarter 2010, verizon did 980M
    As noted previously, the companies are not facing higher expenses from the legislation. They have merely been barred from treating tax-free government income as an expense and deducting that income to gain an additional tax benefit. By no reasonable accounting standard is an income stream an expense.

    For those who are unaware of this issue, here's how it worked (hypothetical numbers):

    Company X:
    - Pays $800,000 for its retirees' qualifying health expenses
    - Federal government provides an additional $200,000 for that company's retirees' qualifying health expenses.
    - Company X's tax rate is 20%

    If the company properly accounted for its expenses, it would book the $800,000 expense and receive a $160,000 tax benefit, leading to an after-tax expense of $640,000 for its retirees' qualifying health expenses.

    What AT&T, et al, were doing was, claiming both the $800,000 company payment and $200,000 government subsidy amounted to $1,000,000 in expenses. It was then deducting $1,000,000 for tax purposes and receiving a tax benefit of $200,000. Hence, its net after-tax payment was $600,000.

    In other words, not only were taxpayers funding some of the company's retirees' qualifying health costs (income that was treated as tax-free to the company), the company was claiming additional tax benefits as if it, not taxpayers, were paying the $200,000.

    Aside from ethical issues, such a practice amounted to bad accounting. The loophole that allowed for such a practice was closed.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    i know, you already explained that, and like i said way back then, you did a really good job, thanks

    but, either way, the company x is out that extra 40G, right or wrong, income stream or brook

    which, at times like these...

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    The bottom line is, companies just don't know how to interpret or project anything right now.

    Uncertainty is no friend to the CFO, and the word "growth" doesn't even get uttered during such times. Treading water is the goal. Shedding jobs is far more attractive than adding them at times like these.

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    Re: U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March, Most in 3 Years

    Some additional encouraging economic news...

    From the Business Roundtable's just-released survey of CEOs:

    • Optimism for companies' sales outlooks continued to increase. Nearly three-quarters of surveyed CEOs expect sales growth over the next 6 months

    • The number of CEOs planning higher U.S. capital spending at their companies has continued to rise.

    • For the first time since the start of the recession, more CEOs expect higher employment at their companies than those expecting lower employment over the next 6 months. Those hiring plans/expectations suggest that the resumption of net job growth in March could be sustained through at least the next 6 months.

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