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Thread: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

  1. #61
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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    Goldenboy219;1058606361]Obama is not responsible for "growing" the private sector as that task will forever be part of a market economy. The "private sector" will grow on its own accord regardless of the size and scope of Obama. You give him far too much credit (you sound like Hanity). Government spending does in fact boost (upward shift) aggregate demand. Now we sit back and wait for it to take effect.
    You have a reading comprehension problem, read what I posted, "implementing policy" is different that actually growing the private sector.


    You have brought up Obama in every single post thus far. I got it (you hate him) last month. Nothing you have stated however has been substantial.
    Right, unemployment, discouraged workers, labor force, deficit, debt are all non substantial especially when they are negative.



    Agreed. I was expecting (even with the puny stimulus) unemployment in the tune of 12%-13% and therefore this so called stimulus package has clearly beaten my expectations.
    Again, your posts are laughable, unemployment is closer to 17% so he has exceeded your expectations to the negative.



    And that is just it. Hell bent on exposing the 8% given how bad everything truly was shows your detachment from reality. The fact that U6 unemployment is 17% now and not 33% is going to be viewed as a positive in my book. Optimal? Nope! But given the lack of size (it should have been in the upwards of $1.5 trillion with 90% towards various infrastructure) i am content with the results.
    Were you around during the late 70's, old enough to be working and paying taxes? This is nothing compared to then. You must be in school thus content with the results. Eventually that lightbulb in your head is going to go off, hopefully not too late.



    The relative size of discouraged workers is not a vital issue during this stage in the game. If unemployment were @ 13.5%, such an issue would become vital as it accounts for a greater aspect of both the labor force and non-institutionalized population
    .

    Unemployment rate is closer to 17%, not even 13.5% you mention. There is no incentive for the private sector to grow. The private sector costs are going up thanks to Obama but that doesn't matter to people who don't understand the private sector, incentive, and a pro growth economic policy.

    Great analysis Anyways what wagers do you agree to and what are the terms? For unemployment (over under 9%) shall it be a Reagan/Obama avatar to the loser. Not that i love the current president, but seeing you sport it would be great for a month.
    If unemployment goes below 9% by July I will drop my Bush Avatar and will admit that I was wrong.

    Inflation...... Dare anyone speak that dreaded word! The austrians were clamoring for hyperinflation due to the bursting of the housing bubble and now you are betting for inflation? Why not keep your mouth closed and max out your investment fund with a TIPS etf, or short treasuries, buy gold, etc...? I'll go an entire year with the avatar of your choice for this wager. I would only require you 1 month if for some reason there is not double digit inflation (ill even give you a 2 point handicap). By the end of this year. Deal?
    I spent 35 years in the business world, benefited during every President but did my best during Reagan. I am fine, living fine, doing well. I know what it takes to drive the economy and nothing Obama is doing supports what I know grows the economy.

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    You have a reading comprehension problem, read what I posted, "implementing policy" is different that actually growing the private sector.
    There is very little if nothing a president, or congress for that matter, can do to have a substantial effect on growing the private sector given the state of the economy. "Red = short run" Cutting taxes during a period of extremely low monetary velocity is going to create deficits and shift supply (which can have a negative effect on prices i.e. deflation). Cutting spending is only going to decrease (downward shift) aggregate demand. Increased spending while holding taxes near a constant will boost aggregate demand. The private sector will act accordingly as consumer spending begins to increase. If you cannot understand how an the economy actually works, then please refrain from providing us with your insight. You are adding nothing important.

    Right, unemployment, discouraged workers, labor force, deficit, debt are all non substantial especially when they are negative.
    When you highlight them in the manner in which you find informative... partisanship bleeds through.

    Again, your posts are laughable, unemployment is closer to 17% so he has exceeded your expectations to the negative.
    The only thing laughable is endless replies of drivel. U-6 unemployment is closer to 17% and U-3 (the measure i was describing) is @ 9.7%. Now you have resorted to grasping at straws. Bravo!

    Were you around during the late 70's, old enough to be working and paying taxes? This is nothing compared to then.
    Agreed. There was no risk of a complete collapse of the global financial system. However, exogenous supply shocks shook the foundation of the Phillips curve and forever changed the way economists think. The Fed still follows a model in which replicates the Phillips curve, although they have built in measures in which to correctly weight aspects of aggregate supply (such as energy).


    You must be in school thus content with the results. Eventually that lightbulb in your head is going to go off, hopefully not too late.
    I have taken at least 6 credit hours every year since i left high school. Not sure what you are getting at though. Always the need to get personal when arguing from a position of weakness....

    Unemployment rate is closer to 17%, not even 13.5% you mention.
    See from above. In the future, it would be helpful for you to distinguish between the benchmark (U-6) and other measures.

    There is no incentive for the private sector to grow.
    Again.... This is why you are not taken seriously. There is always incentive for the private sector to grow. The integral aspect of the US market economy is the ease of firm creation. Even during cyclical recessions, there still is a fair amount of firm creation, just not as much during an up turn. Obama nor any other government official will ever possess the power or ability to disrupt this.

    The private sector costs are going up thanks to Obama but that doesn't matter to people who don't understand the private sector, incentive, and a pro growth economic policy.
    Inflation? Core, producer, wholesale???? Care to provide these extra costs and how they transcribe to increased prices.

    If unemployment goes below 9% by July I will drop my Bush Avatar and will admit that I was wrong.
    Deal. And i will admit i was wrong if it is still 9% or higher. (you should add the avatar of my choice though and i will do the same if you are correct).



    I spent 35 years in the business world, benefited during every President but did my best during Reagan.
    Are you aware that during the ages of 45-60, the average American has their highest income/consumption period in their entire lives? Something to consider.

    I am fine, living fine, doing well. I know what it takes to drive the economy and nothing Obama is doing supports what I know grows the economy.
    And their is your flaw. Obama (the guy you are obsessed with) cannot drive the economy. Innovation is what drives an economy BTW....
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

  3. #63
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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    Goldenboy219;1058606439]There is very little if nothing a president, or congress for that matter, can do to have a substantial effect on growing the private sector given the state of the economy. "Red = short run" Cutting taxes during a period of extremely low monetary velocity is going to create deficits and shift supply (which can have a negative effect on prices i.e. deflation). Cutting spending is only going to decrease (downward shift) aggregate demand. Increased spending while holding taxes near a constant will boost aggregate demand. The private sector will act accordingly as consumer spending begins to increase. If you cannot understand how an the economy actually works, then please refrain from providing us with your insight. You are adding nothing important.
    Pretty simple question, if you have more money in your pocket, i.e. tax cuts, what do you do with it? What affect does that have on the economy?

    Learn the 4 components of GDP and how they affect the economy. Get back to me with the results.


    When you highlight them in the manner in which you find informative... partisanship bleeds through.
    Facts aren't partisan, they are indeed facts. Refute them instead of calling facts partisan.



    The only thing laughable is endless replies of drivel. U-6 unemployment is closer to 17% and U-3 (the measure i was describing) is @ 9.7%. Now you have resorted to grasping at straws. Bravo!
    It is obvious to me that your textbooks haven't taught you anything. Try using some logic and common sense and apply those to the facts given you.

    Agreed. There was no risk of a complete collapse of the global financial system. However, exogenous supply shocks shook the foundation of the Phillips curve and forever changed the way economists think. The Fed still follows a model in which replicates the Phillips curve, although they have built in measures in which to correctly weight aspects of aggregate supply (such as energy).
    Like most "intellectuals" you make it too complicated. Supply and demand still drives the U.S. economy and people with more personal income are the engine that does that. It is a fact there are fewer taxpayers today and thus govt. revenue is dropping leading to the deficit which requires more borrowing to service. Until Obama realizes it is the private sector that really creates the jobs, the deficits will continue to grow and we are going to remain buried in debt. Obama spending on govt. programs and hiring govt. workers is short term and cannot drive the U.S. economy. Any job creation is minimal.




    I have taken at least 6 credit hours every year since i left high school. Not sure what you are getting at though. Always the need to get personal when arguing from a position of weakness....
    Try taking that book smarts and appling some street smarts to it. Figure out what affect people keeping more of their money has on the economy.


    See from above. In the future, it would be helpful for you to distinguish between the benchmark (U-6) and other measures.
    Try understanding that there weren't "only" 36,000 jobs lost in February



    Again.... This is why you are not taken seriously. There is always incentive for the private sector to grow. The integral aspect of the US market economy is the ease of firm creation. Even during cyclical recessions, there still is a fair amount of firm creation, just not as much during an up turn. Obama nor any other government official will ever possess the power or ability to disrupt this.
    Normally someone who refutes the liberal spin is never taken seriously but ignoring the facts makes you look foolish.

    Obama hasn't a clue as to what he is doing and has employed a lot of book smart street stupid individuals who believe the way to grow ourselves out of a recession is through massive growth in the size of the govt. The results are obvious even to the blind Obama supporters.


    Inflation? Core, producer, wholesale???? Care to provide these extra costs and how they transcribe to increased prices.
    Massive borrowing, increased debt service, and the large growth in the size of govt. is going to drive the value of the dollar down and make what you purchase more expensive. Basic supply and demand.


    Are you aware that during the ages of 45-60, the average American has their highest income/consumption period in their entire lives? Something to consider.
    The more you earn the higher your taxes. Cut taxes and you have more spendable income. What do you do with that money? Under Reagan I got a 25% tax cut and used it wisely


    And their is your flaw. Obama (the guy you are obsessed with) cannot drive the economy. Innovation is what drives an economy BTW....
    Wrong, the Obama economic policy is what drives the economy, just like the economic policies of any President.

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    The recession eliminated about 8.4 million jobs. The slow-motion recovery means hiring is expected to remain feeble for the rest of the year — at most a net gain averaging about 100,000 a month.

    To put that in perspective, about 125,000 new jobs are needed each month just to keep up with population growth and prevent the unemployment rate from rising.

    To reduce the jobless rate significantly, employers would need to create 200,000 to 300,000 jobs a month. But most of them are waiting to see stronger sales, more spending by consumers and businesses, and a more vigorous global rebound to stimulate demand for U.S. goods and services.
    Employment data lift hopes but where are the jobs? - Yahoo! News

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    What purpose is there to provide facts that some here will just ignore?

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    so much pessimism---cnbc, ap, abc, wsj

    News Headlines

    Congressional estimates show grim deficit picture - Yahoo! News

    Economists Warn Another Financial on Way to U.S. Economy - ABC News

    National Debt, Budget Deficit Scary Forecast for Taxpayers: Obama to Sign Fiscal Reform, Economists Predict Cutbacks, Tax Increases - ABC News

    At Davos, Experts See Dip Ahead - WSJ.com

    i can't find the times but i remember her tone and general point of view were pretty much identical

    the almost consensual pessimism derives from all the uncertainty

    the prez is clueless, all can see

    americans are losing hope

    hope is in the heart not the head

    try to understand your neighbors, where they're coming from, don't be so selfish

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    What purpose is there to provide facts that some here will just ignore?
    50 people will read this thread

    48 will see the truth in the numbers

    half of them will tell their friends (and foes)

    you're awesome, friend

    keep up the outstanding work, i learn from you

    cliff

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    50 people will read this thread

    48 will see the truth in the numbers

    half of them will tell their friends (and foes)

    you're awesome, friend

    keep up the outstanding work, i learn from you

    cliff
    Thanks, Cliff, but all I am doing is providing verifiable facts. Problem is too many don't want the facts or cannot handle them when they are presented. Not sure what drives people to support an agenda that doesn't allow them to do research to get the facts.

    Wanting to believe what one is told often leads to massive disappointment and looking foolish.

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    The current low rates on the country’s debt were caused by temporary factors that are already beginning to fade. One factor was the economic crisis itself, which caused panicked investors around the world to plow their money into the comparative safety of Treasury bills and notes. Even though the United States was the epicenter of the global crisis, investors viewed Treasury securities as the least dangerous place to park their money.

    On top of that, the Fed used almost every tool in its arsenal to push interest rates down even further. It cut the overnight federal funds rate, the rate at which banks lend reserves to one another, to almost zero. And to reduce longer-term rates, it bought more than $1.5 trillion worth of Treasury bonds and government-guaranteed securities linked to mortgages.
    News Headlines

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    Re: Jobless Rate Holds at 9.7%; Weather Cited in Job Losses

    Quote Originally Posted by Conservative View Post
    Pretty simple question, if you have more money in your pocket, i.e. tax cuts, what do you do with it? What affect does that have on the economy?
    Depends on the Ricardian equivalence. Do you believe there will be greater taxation down the road or not.

    Learn the 4 components of GDP and how they affect the economy. Get back to me with the results.
    K... got'em.... How does exchange effect the income component? (refer to the quantity theory of money).

    Facts aren't partisan, they are indeed facts. Refute them instead of calling facts partisan.
    You are simply pointing out numbers that have no attached value to your position other than (obama is bad).

    It is obvious to me that your textbooks haven't taught you anything. Try using some logic and common sense and apply those to the facts given you.
    Another blanket statement without any merit.

    Like most "intellectuals" you make it too complicated. Supply and demand still drives the U.S. economy and people with more personal income are the engine that does that. It is a fact there are fewer taxpayers today and thus govt. revenue is dropping leading to the deficit which requires more borrowing to service. Until Obama realizes it is the private sector that really creates the jobs, the deficits will continue to grow and we are going to remain buried in debt. Obama spending on govt. programs and hiring govt. workers is short term and cannot drive the U.S. economy. Any job creation is minimal.
    There is no more to argue and constantly react to the need to use labels. We have made a wager and the rest is history.

    Try taking that book smarts and appling some street smarts to it. Figure out what affect people keeping more of their money has on the economy.
    More labels? Seriously though, consider the consumer psyche. They are hesitant to spend even if they did have more money which is what gives your analysis its naivety. Therefore the fed (i no longer wish to discuss the fiscal aspect as you are far too subjective) will constantly monitor employment in attempts to help facilitate economic growth.


    Try understanding that there weren't "only" 36,000 jobs lost in February
    In order for a job to be lost, the person has to have had it and then been fired or released. You are conflating two entirely different aspects of labor economics in an attempt to make an extremely weak point. Unless we see a sudden uptick in U-3 unemployment (or U-6 eclipse 20% on a consistent basis), bringing up discouraged workers is only used as smear against your political opposition.

    Normally someone who refutes the liberal spin is never taken seriously but ignoring the facts makes you look foolish.
    Not ignoring anything. Do you find there is significance in reporting underemployment numbers? How about pointing out that they are up or increasing? It is like claiming it is cold in Chicago during January.

    Obama hasn't a clue as to what he is doing and has employed a lot of book smart street stupid individuals who believe the way to grow ourselves out of a recession is through massive growth in the size of the govt. The results are obvious even to the blind Obama supporters.
    Not an Obama supporter nor care about your view of him. I do find it telling to point out your hate and argue against emotion and ideology. The economy will begin to recover during 2010 and see quite a bit of growth during 2011. Nothing you have presented points to the contrary.

    Massive borrowing, increased debt service, and the large growth in the size of govt. is going to drive the value of the dollar down and make what you purchase more expensive. Basic supply and demand.
    Well that all depends on the level of recovery... does it not? Why is long term credit far cheaper than it was during previous expansionary years? In accordance, what does the cost of credit do in regards to business investment? Forget arguing about fiscal policy. There are other aspects of stimulus not being considered in your analysis.

    The more you earn the higher your taxes. Cut taxes and you have more spendable income.
    When will they spend? Down the road or right now??? Simply believing increased disposable income is a 1:1 function in regards to consumption is absolutely hilarious! I'd bet anything you do not even recognize your error. Either way, .

    What do you do with that money? Under Reagan I got a 25% tax cut and used it wisely
    You mean the equivalence of: You were being taxed $25,000 one year and then $18,750 the next??? That's nice! Was there an incredible national debt exceeding 80% of GDP? Was there high inflation? You take everything to act on the most simplistic basis possible without considering quite a few important aspects.

    What was the multiplier effect of tax cuts then? What was the multiplier effect of the Bush tax cuts?

    Wrong, the Obama economic policy is what drives the economy, just like the economic policies of any President.
    Nope. Otherwise we have a non market economy that is driven by the public sector. Instead, we have a primarily market orientated economy that reacts to various endogenous and exogenous stimulus. Thankfully monetary policy was quick to react during such a period.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
    "Wealth of Nations," Book V, Chapter II, Part II, Article I, pg.911

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