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Thread: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Are you concerned because of the cooked books or because it is currently happening under Obama


    This same cooking of books happened in the Bush admin

    And for all the stupidity of it

    You can have unemployement fall, and have fewer people working, if the number of people looking for work declines (if only because they have given up
    To say more are unemployed but the percetage goes down makes no sense. You see I have been unemployed almost a year and did not collect unemployment. I would not be a part of the stats.

    The phony cooked books is bad enough but don't tell me more are collecting this week but the percentage is going down.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    To say more are unemployed but the percetage goes down makes no sense. You see I have been unemployed almost a year and did not collect unemployment. I would not be a part of the stats.

    The phony cooked books is bad enough but don't tell me more are collecting this week but the percentage is going down.
    The unemployement rates is calculated using people who are actively seeking work but cant find it

    If people have stopped looking for work they are no longer counted

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Instead of looking at unemployment, which has a number of caveats and qualifiers, I'd rather look at total non-farm employment. One telling statistic is that there were more people employed ten years ago (when there were 28 million fewer people) than there are today:



    Note that during the last two "jobless" recoveries the stock market didn't bottom until the economy started adding jobs again.
    Last edited by Ahlevah; 02-10-10 at 11:09 PM.
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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    The unemployement rates is calculated using people who are actively seeking work but cant find it

    If people have stopped looking for work they are no longer counted
    Thats what I said but drz 400 said this in post #146.

    The drop in the percent of unemployment has nothing to do with people giving up looking for work, it has to do with a divergence between the surveys. The surveys are an estimate of what is happening in the general population, becuase they do not survey everyone in america (duh).

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Thats what I said but drz 400 said this in post #146.

    The drop in the percent of unemployment has nothing to do with people giving up looking for work, it has to do with a divergence between the surveys. The surveys are an estimate of what is happening in the general population, becuase they do not survey everyone in america (duh).
    They dont survey everyone in America

    I think they survey around 155 000 homes and use that group as a guildine to determine the unemployement rate

    The number of jobs is also modified by the birth/death model which tends to overstate jobs being created when entering an economic downturn and understate them during an economic upswing. It can take months for the actual number of jobs either created or lost to be determined on a factual rather then statistical value

    And I agree with Ahlevah

    Total non farm employement is a far better tool to determine the state of the job market then either the initial jobless claims, the unemployement rate, or jobs created or lost

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    They dont survey everyone in America

    I think they survey around 155 000 homes and use that group as a guildine to determine the unemployement rate

    The number of jobs is also modified by the birth/death model which tends to overstate jobs being created when entering an economic downturn and understate them during an economic upswing. It can take months for the actual number of jobs either created or lost to be determined on a factual rather then statistical value

    And I agree with Ahlevah

    Total non farm employement is a far better tool to determine the state of the job market then either the initial jobless claims, the unemployement rate, or jobs created or lost
    Why not look at the broader measure, U6?

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    They dont survey everyone in America

    I think they survey around 155 000 homes and use that group as a guildine to determine the unemployement rate

    The number of jobs is also modified by the birth/death model which tends to overstate jobs being created when entering an economic downturn and understate them during an economic upswing. It can take months for the actual number of jobs either created or lost to be determined on a factual rather then statistical value

    And I agree with Ahlevah

    Total non farm employement is a far better tool to determine the state of the job market then either the initial jobless claims, the unemployement rate, or jobs created or lost
    So they cook the books so unemployment does not look so bad.

    It is worse than they say and here is how I know.

    In 15 years of driving truck i could always find a jod because there was a shortage of drivers.

    I am having a hard time now finding a job. If there is an abundance of drivers that means there is no freight to haul.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by washunut View Post
    Why not look at the broader measure, U6?
    Personally I dont like using the underemployed part of U6.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    So they cook the books so unemployment does not look so bad.

    It is worse than they say and here is how I know.

    In 15 years of driving truck i could always find a jod because there was a shortage of drivers.

    I am having a hard time now finding a job. If there is an abundance of drivers that means there is no freight to haul.
    I my opinion yes,

    They have changed the way unemployement is calculated in the US to make the number appear better. (before Obama and I believe before Bush took office as well)

    They have also modified the Core inflation rate (CPI) figure to ensure Social Security payments do not increase as much as they would have (done during the Clinton admin) I believe

    The best place to get good governmental stats is from ShadowStats. That site uses government data but compiles them according to past methodology

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Personally I dont like using the underemployed part of U6.
    Why don't you like using the underemployment piece? As the economy starts to improve you will probably see it first in underemployment turning into fully employed.

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