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Thread: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Here is what you said

    Your right there were more unemployment claims this week (actually for the past three weeks)

    Yet the percent unemployed went down.
    Unemployment is a statistic, and that statistic went down from 10% to 9.7%! Employment is a statistic that went down 20,000! Unemployment claims went up to 180,000! Those are all statistics. They contradict each other because they come from different sources! They are all different surveys! This is what Paul Krugman said, this is what I said. Read!
    Last edited by drz-400; 02-10-10 at 06:36 PM.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    Unemployment is a statistic, and that statistic went down from 10% to 9.7%! Employment is a statistic that went down 20,000! Unemployment claims went up to 180,000! Those are all statistics. They contradict each other because they come from different sources! They are all different surveys! This is what Paul Krugman said, this is what I said. Read!
    Because the books are cooked. You cannot say claims went up and the percent unemployed went down. That makes no sense.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Because the books are cooked. You cannot say claims went up and the percent unemployed went down. That makes no sense.
    They are not cooked, the surveys came up with two different results because they are surveys taken by different people, and a different number of people.

    Heres what krugman said again:

    "Payroll numbers come from a survey of firms; unemployment (and employment-population) numbers come from a survey of households. Both surveys are subject to error, both strict statistical sampling error and things like incomplete coverage, uncertain seasonal adjustments, and so on. When employment growth is near zero, on either side, itís not that surprising that the surveys should point in opposite directions."

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Also, your 480,000 (unemployment claims) is the advance figure for the seasonally adjusted intial claims for the week of Jan. 30. That means people were filing for unemployment during that week. That does not have everything to do with how many people are on unemployment insurance. More people could have been taken off unemployment than those who are now claiming for the first time.

    Also, the insured unemployment rate is only a part of the total unemployment rate. This is because not everyone who is unemployed gets unemployment, or people who are unemployed may have already had their benefits expire.

    Here is the official report of unemployment claims:
    ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

    "In the week ending Jan. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 480,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 472,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average of 457,000.

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Jan. 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

    The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 23 was 4,602,000, an increase of 2,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,600,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,617,500, a decrease of 51,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,668,750."

    As you can see from this report, the initial claims went up, but the number on unemployment insurance remained relatively the same, or even decreased when compared using a 4 week average.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    They are not cooked, the surveys came up with two different results because they are surveys taken by different people, and a different number of people.

    Heres what krugman said again:

    "Payroll numbers come from a survey of firms; unemployment (and employment-population) numbers come from a survey of households. Both surveys are subject to error, both strict statistical sampling error and things like incomplete coverage, uncertain seasonal adjustments, and so on. When employment growth is near zero, on either side, itís not that surprising that the surveys should point in opposite directions."
    You sound like you are not realizing what you are saying.

    More are collecting but the percentage is going down. That makes no sense.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    Also, your 480,000 (unemployment claims) is the advance figure for the seasonally adjusted intial claims for the week of Jan. 30. That means people were filing for unemployment during that week. That does not have everything to do with how many people are on unemployment insurance. More people could have been taken off unemployment than those who are now claiming for the first time.

    Also, the insured unemployment rate is only a part of the total unemployment rate. This is because not everyone who is unemployed gets unemployment, or people who are unemployed may have already had their benefits expire.

    Here is the official report of unemployment claims:
    ETA Press Release: Unemployment Insurance Weekly Claims Report

    "In the week ending Jan. 30, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 480,000, an increase of 8,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 472,000. The 4-week moving average was 468,750, an increase of 11,750 from the previous week's revised average of 457,000.

    The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 3.5 percent for the week ending Jan. 23, unchanged from the prior week's unrevised rate of 3.5 percent.

    The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending Jan. 23 was 4,602,000, an increase of 2,000 from the preceding week's revised level of 4,600,000. The 4-week moving average was 4,617,500, a decrease of 51,250 from the preceding week's revised average of 4,668,750."

    As you can see from this report, the initial claims went up, but the number on unemployment insurance remained relatively the same, or even decreased when compared using a 4 week average.
    Still for it to go down .3% is cooking the books or not counting those that are no longer collecting.

    The real figure is about 17%

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Still for it to go down .3% is cooking the books or not counting those that are no longer collecting.

    The real figure is about 17%
    Not really, because insured unemployment is only a part of U3 unemployment and I have already described why initial claims can go up without insured unemployment going up. Also, U3 is not determined by those on unemployment insurance, it is done by a household survey. This is why U3 is higher than the unemployment insurance percentage, because not everyone who is unemployed has unemployment insurance. The 17% figure is U6 unemployment which includes discouraged workers, loosely attached workers, and part time workers who want full time work. Rumor has it that this went down as well.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by ptif219 View Post
    Because the books are cooked. You cannot say claims went up and the percent unemployed went down. That makes no sense.
    Are you concerned because of the cooked books or because it is currently happening under Obama


    This same cooking of books happened in the Bush admin

    And for all the stupidity of it

    You can have unemployement fall, and have fewer people working, if the number of people looking for work declines (if only because they have given up

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by Lord Tammerlain View Post
    Are you concerned because of the cooked books or because it is currently happening under Obama


    This same cooking of books happened in the Bush admin

    And for all the stupidity of it

    You can have unemployement fall, and have fewer people working, if the number of people looking for work declines (if only because they have given up
    The books are not being cooked now, and they were not under bush either. The results were contradictory mainly because of the difference in the two surveys. Thats it.

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    Re: Economy Sheds 20,000 Jobs But Rate Drops to 9.7 Percent

    Quote Originally Posted by drz-400 View Post
    The books are not being cooked now, and they were not under bush either. The results were contradictory mainly because of the difference in the two surveys. Thats it.
    Well the numbers (ie the unemployment rate) has been modified over time to make the rate appear smaller or less of a problem then it actually is

    But you are correct, the current numbers are not cooked, but follow a set standard of guildlines that have been around for at least a decade

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