The Prof
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Just a dabble from me.
The problem that we are facing right now in the status of al-Qa'ida and their intention is two-fold:
1) al-Qa'ida has never been a central paradigm, there has always been two "al-Qa'ida"s. The first being Qa'ida al-Jihad, which is the international terrorist structure that is responsible for 9/11 (among other things). The second being al-Qa'ida in Afghanistan, which can only be described as foreigners, with Qa'ida al-Jihad training, fighting along-side the Taliban. This al-Qa'ida never cared about international terrorism, these were the mujahadeen fighters who, following the fall of the Soviet Union, were wanting to push North out of Afghanistan and into Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan.
2) al-Qa'ida since the 2001 US led invasion has splintered dramatically where the only real resemblance of the al-Qa'ida-Taliban Brigade (055) is the "Shadow Army". al-Qa'ida to the Taliban (both big and little "t') are those who are foreigners (central Asian, west Asian, Arabic, and maybe some slavs thrown in the mix) fighting as allies to certain Taliban tribes.
True, al-Qa'ida is not in Afghanistan, but the al-Qa'ida (notice, not Qa'ida al-Jihad) is going to be within the militaristic motivations of the Taliban (big "t") regime, and wish to re-extend it's power into Afghanistan.
The momentum, at this time, appears to be pushing the Taliban (big "t") into Pakistan, but I think that is because of the Pakistani Army. They really don't need to do much except eliminate the voices of opposition within the Pakistani Army.
An interesting conflict to watch is how the United States is going to work now that Kharzi is firmly willingly to give the Taliban partial control of Afghanistan.
sorry, I diverted a bit.
awesome post, friend, i learned
i hear you on the decentralized condition of aq, bigtime
you and i recall "aq in iraq" which existed so separately from whatever kinda central organization could ever hypothetically exist amongst a collection of cells
aq seems, in the big picture, so amateur
but amateurs can be so terribly deadly when all they do is target little girls and their grammas
i wonder if obama intends to read miranda rights to whomever is captured in obama's war, prior to setting em up for lance ito's courtroom circus
you and i recall "aq in iraq" was marginalized by the almost miraculous sunni flip in troubled anbar
that is, aq in iraq killed so many innocents they pushed mainstream sunnis into OUR camp
(of course, there were other inducements)
my point---i hear you, friend
and i learned a lot i did not know
thanks!
cliff