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Thread: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

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    ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

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    Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism - Yahoo! Finance

    I am puzzled.
    I feel certain that some of the more educated people who frequent these blogs can point out the mistakes in my thinking.

    We are informed that the unemployment stands at 10.2%, then we are also told that the number of those who have lost jobs in the last month is an unexpected drop in being 11,000.
    However I am at a loss to understand how a loss of jobs (while being a declining amount on a month to month basis) can possibly be called a reduction of 0.2% of those unemployed.
    Please help me to understand.

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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    I think it has to do with projected losses and/or the was they calculated constant unemployment though people gain and lose jobs constantly.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    The numbers are funny because a lot of people drop off unemployment each month because they've given up looking for work.

    I also heard that the biggest drop in this month's unemployment figures was due to a rise in temporary jobs. If that's the case, look for January's numbers to be horrible.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    The numbers are funny because a lot of people drop off unemployment each month because they've given up looking for work.

    I also heard that the biggest drop in this month's unemployment figures was due to a rise in temporary jobs. If that's the case, look for January's numbers to be horrible.
    Smoke & mirrors, this economy has not bottomed out....

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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    The numbers are funny because a lot of people drop off unemployment each month because they've given up looking for work.

    I also heard that the biggest drop in this month's unemployment figures was due to a rise in temporary jobs. If that's the case, look for January's numbers to be horrible.
    Yep, but the real unemployment number which includes these people also fell.

    Plus the last two months numbers were revised down (as in fewer job losses).
    PeteEU

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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by Partisan View Post
    Smoke & mirrors, this economy has not bottomed out....
    Considering that the real unemployment fell also then there is a chance that it has bottomed out. The next two months will be key to see if it in fact did bottom out.
    PeteEU

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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    Yep, but the real unemployment number which includes these people also fell.

    Plus the last two months numbers were revised down (as in fewer job losses).
    Not according to this article:

    The unemployment rate also dropped because fewer people are looking for work. The size of the labor force, which includes the employed and those actively searching for jobs, has fallen by 1.2 million in the past six months. That indicates more of the unemployed are giving up on looking for work.

    • "The America Republic will endure until the day Congress discovers that it can bribe the public with the public's money." -- Alexis de Tocqueville





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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by Gill View Post
    Not according to this article:
    That is exactly what I am saying.

    The unemployment numbers of 10% now are "fake" because the pool of workers change so much in the US.

    After X months a person is automatically kicked off the list if they have not found work as they are considered as not looking for work.. they are still unemployed of course and looking for work, but they are not part of the statistic any more. That is why you could easily have a rise in unemployment in one month with jobs created.. sounds nuts, but it is possible.

    It is also why the rise last time from 9.8 to 10.4% or whatever it was happened with only 140k more unemployed. The amount of people in the labour pool fell relatively more than the amount of people filing for unemployment and hence pushing up the official unemployment number considerably more than one would expect. And some of the decline in the unemployment number is also attributed to the fact that the revised number of unemployed in the last two months fell, so the 10.4% or whatever was never really that high.

    Now the "real unemployment" number adds these people plus those working part time but want full time work and that number has fallen also.

    US unemployment numbers are can be very deceptive, but the more accurate number is some where in between the official 10% and the "real unemployment" number of near 17%.
    PeteEU

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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    That is exactly what I am saying.

    The unemployment numbers of 10% now are "fake" because the pool of workers change so much in the US.

    After X months a person is automatically kicked off the list if they have not found work as they are considered as not looking for work.. they are still unemployed of course and looking for work, but they are not part of the statistic any more. That is why you could easily have a rise in unemployment in one month with jobs created.. sounds nuts, but it is possible.

    It is also why the rise last time from 9.8 to 10.4% or whatever it was happened with only 140k more unemployed. The amount of people in the labour pool fell relatively more than the amount of people filing for unemployment and hence pushing up the official unemployment number considerably more than one would expect. And some of the decline in the unemployment number is also attributed to the fact that the revised number of unemployed in the last two months fell, so the 10.4% or whatever was never really that high.

    Now the "real unemployment" number adds these people plus those working part time but want full time work and that number has fallen also.

    US unemployment numbers are can be very deceptive, but the more accurate number is some where in between the official 10% and the "real unemployment" number of near 17%.
    I've been hearing 20% a lot this last week, tho I have no idea if that figure is anywhere near accurate. If it is it's shocking to say the least.
    He has all the virtues I dislike and none of the vices I admire. ~ Winston Churchill

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    Re: ap Unexpected drop in jobless rate sparks optimism

    Quote Originally Posted by Dutch View Post
    I've been hearing 20% a lot this last week, tho I have no idea if that figure is anywhere near accurate. If it is it's shocking to say the least.
    Truly shocking when you think about it. Plus, the real unemployment rate among black men ages 25-54 is over 34 percent, which is incomprehensible.

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