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Thread: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by donc View Post
    WELL NOW, look what I found, from the CBO at that.


    < CBO report: Stimulus package saved or created as many as 1.6 million jobs>


    <By Michael O'Brien - 12/01/09 10:09 AM ET
    The stimulus bill enacted this year has resulted in as many as 1.6 million jobs saved or created this fall, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said Monday evening.>


    <The nonpartisan CBO said in a legally mandated report that the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) had resulted in between 600,000 and 1.6 million jobs for the U.S. economy that wouldn't have existed in the absence of the stimulus.>


    <Additionally, the CBO said, gross domestic product (GDP) was as much as 3.2 percent higher than it would have been in the absence of the stimulus.>


    < Republicans had attacked the White House jobs figures as "trying to cover up economic reality by manufacturing job numbers out of thin air" when the Obama administration released those data. Republicans in Congress meanwhile point to testimony earlier this year from a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus.>


    CBO report: Stimulus package saved or created as many as 1.6 million jobs - The Hill's Blog Briefing Room
    You left a part out-

    "Republicans in Congress meanwhile point to testimony earlier this year from a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus."
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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by Strucky View Post
    You left a part out-

    "Republicans in Congress meanwhile point to testimony earlier this year from a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus."

    Dilemma time, on the one hand we have something form (Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus.") from " earlier this year".

    On the other hand we have a report from the CBO, that is from this week(current); now who to believe?

    Myself, I will have to stick with the CBO report and relegate" earlier this year"to ancient history as for as economic reports go.
    The haggardness of poverty is everywhere seen contrasted with the sleekness of wealth, the exhorted labor of some compensating for the idleness of others, wretched hovels by the side of stately colonnades, the rags of indigence blended with the ensigns of opulence; in a word, the most useless profusion in the midst of the most urgent wants.Jean-Baptiste Say

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by donc View Post
    Dilemma time, on the one hand we have something form (Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus.") from " earlier this year".

    On the other hand we have a report from the CBO, that is from this week(current); now who to believe?

    Myself, I will have to stick with the CBO report and relegate" earlier this year"to ancient history as for as economic reports go.
    All the fraud in figures over the last few months from Obama and the dems and now we should believe this. I want real proof of these jobs not more useless talk and propaganda.

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by Strucky View Post
    You left a part out-

    "Republicans in Congress meanwhile point to testimony earlier this year from a Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus."
    So do me and everyone a favor..... STFU about the stimulus. You obviously have nothing constructive to say.
    It is not very unreasonable that the rich should contribute to the public expense, not only in proportion to their revenue, but something more than in that proportion.
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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    So do me and everyone a favor..... STFU about the stimulus. You obviously have nothing constructive to say.
    Why would I say something constructive about something that isn't constructive?

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    yap, the nonpartisan congressional budget office says obama underestimated the numbers created or saved.

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by Goldenboy219 View Post
    So do me and everyone a favor..... STFU about the stimulus.
    Yes,I suppose pointing out crooked numbers is not in your best interest.



    You obviously have nothing constructive to say.
    So says the guy that did'nt post anything constructive
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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    we need a tax hike on the rich to pay for all the disabled vets.

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by donc View Post
    Dilemma time, on the one hand we have something form (Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) official maintaining it's virtually impossible to glean such an estimate of the true impact of the stimulus.") from " earlier this year".

    On the other hand we have a report from the CBO, that is from this week(current); now who to believe?

    Myself, I will have to stick with the CBO report and relegate" earlier this year"to ancient history as for as economic reports go.
    From the CBO-

    Estimated Impact of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act on Employment and Economic Output as of September 2009

    ---------

    Limitations of Recipients’ Estimates

    Recipients report that about 640,000 jobs were created or retained with ARRA funding through September 2009. However, such reports do not provide a comprehensive estimate of the law’s impact on employment in the United States. That impact may be higher or lower than the reported number for several reasons (in addition to any issues about the quality of the data in the reports). First, it is impossible to determine how many of the reported jobs would have existed in the absence of the stimulus package.

    -------------


    CBO has also examined incoming data on output and employment during the period since ARRA’s enactment. However, those data are not as helpful in determining ARRA’s economic effects as might be supposed, because isolating the effects would require knowing what path the economy would have taken in the absence of the law. Because that path cannot be observed, the new data add only limited information about ARRA’s impact. Economic output and employment in the spring and summer of 2009 were lower than CBO had projected at the beginning of the year.


    From the American Spectator-

    On “Jobs Created or Saved” and the CBO

    By Joseph Lawler on 12.1.09

    Yesterday the CBO released, as mandated by the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA, the stimulus bill), an analysis commenting on the reports filed by recipients of stimulus funds. I have argued in the past that interpretation of such analyses is difficult, and that the Obama administration's public interpretations have not demonstrated a corresponding level of exactitude. Now I see that the same left-of-center economists who dismissed my previous argument are presenting yesterday's CBO report as confirmation of their beliefs that the stimulus saved or created about 1 million jobs and that the administration is free to advertise "created or saved" numbers as if they could point to each specific job.

    Nevertheless, I take yesterday's CBO report as affirmation both that 1) the number of jobs created by the stimulus cannot be determined without making judgment calls about the underlying economic model and that 2) the administration is on shaky ground when it claims to have evidence of hundreds of thousands of jobs created or saved.

    --------

    Here's how the CBO comes up with the employment numbers. Instead of trying to count the reported jobs and extrapolate from those numbers, they look at the total amounts spent by the government so far, and then estimate the effects of those expenditures using evidence from similar policies in the past and sophisticated macroeconomic models.

    One key assumption in the stimulus’s formulation is that these government expenditures have a multiplier effect -- that they increase consumption and output both directly and indirectly. That means that each dollar the government spends or gives back as a tax cut not only raises the consumption of the worker employed using that dollar or the recipient of the tax rebate, but also raises the consumption of others as the recipients spend their extra money.

    -----

    The important thing is to note that the assumptions from these sources regarding multipliers and the effects of stimulus on employment and GDP have not changed since the CBO's February forecast (pdf) of the effects of the stimulus. The range of predictions generated using these models was a dismal failure: the low estimate of employment in the fourth quarter of 2009 without the stimulus was 142.4 million, and the baseline was 141.6 million. The latest BLS report put employment well below either of these numbers, at 138.2 million.

    If the models underlying these assumptions could yield an initial prediction that was so far off the mark, why should we unquestioningly use the exact same models for the key assumptions in re-creating the counterfactual baseline, as CBO has done?

    ---------
    "The problem in defense is how far you can go without destroying from within what you are trying to defend from without."

    ~Dwight D. Eisenhower

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    Re: Exclusive: Jobs 'Saved or Created' in Congressional Districts That Don't Exist

    Quote Originally Posted by scottsoperson View Post
    we need a tax hike on the rich to pay for all the disabled vets.
    No we don't....We need to stop spending like drunken Liberals.
    "The problem in defense is how far you can go without destroying from within what you are trying to defend from without."

    ~Dwight D. Eisenhower

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