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Thread: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    Who says the corruption has to be distributed evenly?
    It's obviously not a given, but if you want to argue that black people are more likely to be corrupt than white people by some significant factor, feel free to take the stage.

    And who says that this is even close to statistically impossible?
    Math says it.

    I don't feel like doing the numbers out right now, but try to calculate the probability that 8 people selected from a group of 435 would all be part of a 41 member subset of that group of 435.

    Unless there is some other factor at play, such as black officials being 20 times more corrupt than white officials or the OCE pursuing black officials for some other reason, this is incredibly unlikely.

    edit: Assuming an even distribution, the odds are 1 in 160,562,159.
    Last edited by RightinNYC; 11-03-09 at 02:39 PM.
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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    It's obviously not a given, but if you want to argue that black people are more likely to be corrupt than white people by some significant factor, feel free to take the stage.

    No, I didn't say that. But we are supposed to be in a "post racial period" are we not? So if we look at what they under investigation for individually, then would you agree that it is possible that they are just corrupt? Or does it have to be linked to some larger excuse like racism?


    Math says it.

    I don't feel like doing the numbers out right now, but try to calculate the probability that 8 people selected from a group of 435 would all be part of a 41 member subset of that group of 435.

    Unless there is some other factor at play, such as black officials being 20 times more corrupt than white officials or the OCE pursuing black officials for some other reason, this is incredibly unlikely.

    Stats most likely, and often do lie. They can be twisted to show anything. This is like William Jefferson (D-La.) caught red handed with $90K in his freezer, of all things, and claiming that it was race that was behind investigating him.....absurd.


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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers - John Bresnahan - POLITICO.com





    I don't presume to have an explanation for this disparity, but it's certainly startling regardless of how you look at it.
    It's probably just a statistical anomaly; it's not terribly unlikely. What is terribly unlikely, I think, is that the ethics committee is systematically investigating people on the basis on their race.

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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers - John Bresnahan - POLITICO.com





    I don't presume to have an explanation for this disparity, but it's certainly startling regardless of how you look at it.
    As long as the investigations are on merits, only racist will read into the skin color. I don't care what color you are, if you are breaking the law, oyu need to be taken down.

    So these 7 happen to be black... and?
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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
    It's probably just a statistical anomaly; it's not terribly unlikely. What is terribly unlikely, I think, is that the ethics committee is systematically investigating people on the basis on their race.
    That doesn't surprise me. It would be unfortunate to adopt the "libertarian" socially progressive position when there's PC thuggery to be stamped out.

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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    It's obviously not a given, but if you want to argue that black people are more likely to be corrupt than white people by some significant factor, feel free to take the stage.



    Math says it.

    I don't feel like doing the numbers out right now, but try to calculate the probability that 8 people selected from a group of 435 would all be part of a 41 member subset of that group of 435.

    Unless there is some other factor at play, such as black officials being 20 times more corrupt than white officials or the OCE pursuing black officials for some other reason, this is incredibly unlikely.

    edit: Assuming an even distribution, the odds are 1 in 160,562,159.
    Well, to be fair, that's if they're randomly selected from the population and ceteris paribus is assumed.

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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    So when was the last time we had all whites under investigation? Was it in the news?
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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    So when was the last time we had all whites under investigation? Was it in the news?
    Would it be as statistically improbable for seven of them to be under investigation, given their extreme congressional majority? Moreover, is there an active history of discrimination there, considering who constitutes the racial majority? I'm not black, but it's a bit dubious to insinuate comparisons of affirmative action and segregation policy as though there's some equivalence there.
    Last edited by Agnapostate; 11-03-09 at 02:58 PM.

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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by j-mac View Post
    No, I didn't say that. But we are supposed to be in a "post racial period" are we not? So if we look at what they under investigation for individually, then would you agree that it is possible that they are just corrupt? Or does it have to be linked to some larger excuse like racism?

    Stats most likely, and often do lie. They can be twisted to show anything. This is like William Jefferson (D-La.) caught red handed with $90K in his freezer, of all things, and claiming that it was race that was behind investigating him.....absurd.
    Yes, that's exactly like statistics.

    Quote Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
    It's probably just a statistical anomaly; it's not terribly unlikely. What is terribly unlikely, I think, is that the ethics committee is systematically investigating people on the basis on their race.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ethereal View Post
    Well, to be fair, that's if they're randomly selected from the population and ceteris paribus is assumed.
    And I agree that there are obviously other factors that come into play. However, even with those, I don't see an explanation.

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    As long as the investigations are on merits, only racist will read into the skin color. I don't care what color you are, if you are breaking the law, oyu need to be taken down.

    So these 7 happen to be black... and?
    And that's interesting because of how incredibly unlikely it is. Do you think that of the ~370 white Congresspeople we have, not one is worthy of investigation?

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    So when was the last time we had all whites under investigation? Was it in the news?
    I doubt it would be in the news, because the odds of that happening (using the above, admittedly flawed equation) are roughly one in four. Not exactly front page material.
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    Re: Racial disparity: All active ethics probes focus on black lawmakers

    Quote Originally Posted by Agnapostate View Post
    Would it be as statistically improbable for seven of them to be under investigation, given their extreme congressional majority?

    Are you actually making the argument that they shouldn't be investigated because of their skin color?


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