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The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

TOJ said:
Nah, but I am looking forward to hearing all about this upward trend of which you speak. :rofl

.
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saupload_gdp.jpg


Now, can you draw the trend line TOJ?
 
Dutch said:
An end to the recession imho is pretty much meaninglyes until such time as the unemployment rates drop to reasonable levels.
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Not true. The end of the recession means the economy is growing, by definition. This means that companies will need to start hiring. There is always a lag and it will be some time before unemployment is at reasonable levels. I think it is fair to say that the situation will not be satisfactory until employment has returned. Still, it is not meaningless to see the economy growing again.
 
"Federal support for spending on cars and homes drove the economy up 3.5 percent from July through September. But the government aid — from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases — is only temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is likely to weaken without it.

If shoppers retrench in the face of rising joblessness and tight credit, the fragile recovery could tip back into recession"

The 3rd quarter bump could be an artificial increase, I'll wait until a trend develops before I celebrate the end of the recession.

Economy growing but recovery could be at risk - Yahoo! News
 
reefedjib said:
Not true. The end of the recession means the economy is growing, by definition. This means that companies will need to start hiring. There is always a lag and it will be some time before unemployment is at reasonable levels. I think it is fair to say that the situation will not be satisfactory until employment has returned. Still, it is not meaningless to see the economy growing again.
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This is exactly correct.
Its nice to see growth, but alone, it doesnt mean much.
In fact, the growth will be revised at the end of this quarter (if not sooner) and is as likely as not to be revised down.

As another, perhaps more, positive sign:
Two of the three US-flaged Great Lakes Bulk Carriers that were laid up all summer in Toledo OH were put back into service last week.
 
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The economy is rebounding? There are still people losing jobs, with more jobs expected to lost next year, to the tune of 2 million jobs. It's going to cost a trillion dollars to pay for the health insurance entitlement program, consumer confidence is still down, PBO still has cap-n-tax hanging over everyone's head, the cash for clunkers BS wound costing about $24 thousand per car.

Long story short, the economy is rebouding. The economy won't rebound in the 3rd and surely not the 4th quarters. If a rebound occurs, we won't see the effect until the 2nd quarter of next year.
 
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Hatuey said:
Economy grows in 3Q, signals end of recession - Yahoo! News

......comments?
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I have to laugh at the desperate attempts from the Libruls to suggest that we are in a recovery.

Home mortgages are continuing to hit record highs, commercial foreclosures are on the rise, jobs continue to disappear at an alarming rate and consumers are continuing to cling to what little cash they have to be able to buy the necessities.

The irony of such claims from the Left are evident when they had spent so much time during the Bush Administration claiming that we were in a recession.

Here is the pertinent parts of the article that are relevant:

Federal support for spending on cars and homes drove the economy up 3.5 percent from July through September. But the government aid — from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases — is only temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is likely to weaken without it.

If shoppers retrench in the face of rising joblessness and tight credit, the fragile recovery could tip back into recession.

Millions of Americans have yet to feel a real-world benefit from the recovery in the form of job creation or an easier time getting a loan. Even those with jobs are reluctant to spend. The values of their homes and 401(k)s remain shrunken.

What I find truly remarkable and a great example of outright denial and willful suspension of disbelief are these comments from Obama:

"The benchmark I use to measure the strength of our economy is not just whether our GDP is growing, but whether we are creating jobs, whether families are having an easier time paying their bills, whether our businesses are hiring and doing well," Obama said.

Well Obama, if that is your case, then you and your fellow ingrates running Congress are failing miserably.

More regarding the failure of Obamanomics:

Economists say the jobless rate probably nudged up to 9.9 percent in October and will go as high as 10.5 percent around the middle of next year before declining gradually. The government is scheduled to release the October jobless rate report next week.

These are the REALITIES. The notion that the Government can borrow and spend $1.4 trillion it doesn't have will spur a recovery is beyond ignorant.

I find the notion that we are in a recovery beyond laughable; we haven't even begun to feel the effects of the criminally negligent spending we are seeing from this Government and when the bill comes due, the economy will flounder even deeper.

Throughout the nation the ripple effects of the losses of jobs, construction and consumer spending continues to be felt and as foreclosures and unemployment continue to rise we will see a continuing spiral into the deep hole these morons are spending us into.

The notion that the Rich can fund the multi-trillion spending spree Democrats are on requires a willful ignorance I cannot fathom; ALL of us will be paying for it which will further stifle consumer spending and exacerbate the recessionary pressures we are feeling.

No people, this is not a recovery; it is merely the calm before the storm. I am deeply afraid for our future if Americans do not begin to come to their senses and vote these idiots out of office before it is too late.
 
Alex said:
If shoppers retrench in the face of rising joblessness and tight credit, the fragile recovery could tip back into recession"
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Alex, it is not an "if"; the reality is that they still have not come out yet. This artificial attempt to boost spending is just that; artificial.

The fascinating part of this Democrat/Librul denial is that all these tax credits and spending increases the deficit.

The other part of the story NOT being told so as to keep Americans in the dark and uninformed is that tax revenues as a result of the lack of economic recovery are continuing to decline which will exacerbate the deficits and National Debt.

When we as a nation spend almost $500 million per day paying interest on our debt, the notion that even in a robust economy we are recovering is willful denial.
 
Goldenboy219 said:
What is reasonable? (hint: the natural rate of unemployment is the key)
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I'm not certain exactly how you want this answered by they used to say something along the lines of 4% was pretty close to full employment since at least that many of any population would choose not to work anyway. :wink2:
 
Alex said:
"Federal support for spending on cars and homes drove the economy up 3.5 percent from July through September. But the government aid — from tax credits for home buyers to rebates for auto purchases — is only temporary. Consumer spending, which normally drives recoveries, is likely to weaken without it.

If shoppers retrench in the face of rising joblessness and tight credit, the fragile recovery could tip back into recession"

The 3rd quarter bump could be an artificial increase, I'll wait until a trend develops before I celebrate the end of the recession.

Economy growing but recovery could be at risk - Yahoo! News
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I agree with you that we need to wait until a trend develops.
But I am confused today about the federal support for cars and homes and their impact. I have seen many stories like this one, suggesting that it boosted the economy. But today there were two stories saying the cars and homes subsidies had only incremental effects.
 
Truth Detector said:
I have to laugh at the desperate attempts from the Libruls to suggest that we are in a recovery.
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It's not Libruls who are saying it, it's economists, market makers, policy wonks, and more.
 
Truth Detector said:
When we as a nation spend almost $500 million per day paying interest on our debt, the notion that even in a robust economy we are recovering is willful denial.
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Of this $500 million per day, to whom is it being paid to?
 
jackalope said:
It's not Libruls who are saying it, it's economists, market makers, policy wonks, and more.
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You would be wrong again; but there are a few economists who are willing to risk their credibility for purely liberal partisan purposes.

The notion that we are in a recovery requires a stunning level of willful denial regardless of whether one claims they are an economist or not.

But the irony here is how these same morons were also claiming that during the Bush years we were in a recession while employment was at 4.5% and GDP growing at a 3.5% rate.

The truth and historic record is not kind to Liberals and the efforts to now suggest that we are in a recovery based on the farcical attempts by Democrats to spend us into stunning deficits is asinine at best and more for the consumption of the gullible and ignorant.
 
Hatuey said:
Economy grows in 3Q, signals end of recession - Yahoo! News



......comments?
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Five reasons it's too soon to declare the recession over

UNEMPLOYMENT: Consumers won’t start shopping again in earnest as long as the unemployment rate is at 9.5% and threatening to break into double digits. People who are out of work can’t spend, and people who fear being out of work won’t spend.

SPARE CAPACITY: Companies won’t hire or buy equipment as long as they have lots of slack. Today’s industrial production report revealed that the U.S. industrial capacity utilization rate fell in June to 68%, the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1967. World Bank Chief Economist Justin Lin said today in South Africa that unless global overcapacity is reduced, “we will face a deflationary spiral and the crisis will become protracted,” according to Bloomberg.

DEBT: As I’ve written, household debt soared from two-thirds of GDP in the early 1990s to 100% at the end of 2008. Simply getting debt back to three-quarters of GDP, the level of 2001, would require paying off 25% of all outstanding household debt, $3.5 trillion worth. Paying down debt gets even harder when GDP is falling—that’s Keynes’s paradox of thrift.

BOND VIGILANTES: If fixed-income investors get nervous that the government’s massive deficit spending will push up inflation, they will sell bonds and drive up interest rates. That would be a huge setback for homebuying, car sales, and other rate-sensitive sectors.

DOUBLE DIP: Even if the gross domestic product rises in the current July-September quarter—and it might—output could very well fall again in the fourth as the effects of the stimulus tax cuts begin to fade.

Five reasons it's too soon to declare the recession over - BusinessWeek
 
Truth Detector said:
You would be wrong again; but there are a few economists who are willing to risk their credibility for purely liberal partisan purposes.

The notion that we are in a recovery requires a stunning level of willful denial regardless of whether one claims they are an economist or not.

But the irony here is how these same morons were also claiming that during the Bush years we were in a recession while employment was at 4.5% and GDP growing at a 3.5% rate.

The truth and historic record is not kind to Liberals and the efforts to now suggest that we are in a recovery based on the farcical attempts by Democrats to spend us into stunning deficits is asinine at best and more for the consumption of the gullible and ignorant.
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Your comments do not reflect what I read in the Financial Times when it comes to my door each day, nor what I read as I cruise around the web.

They do not reflect anything other than partisanship, in fact. I find them as uncompelling as I found the Bush administrations assertions that we were not in recession, when we were heading into a ditch.
 
Truth Detector said:
To whomever holds treasury notes/bonds. :doh
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Come on TD, you have to do better than that....

As little as 25% of US government debt is held by foreign entities. Therefore, under your assumptions, $375 million is being paid to US citizens and agencies.

But bless your little heart;)
 
jackalope said:
Your comments do not reflect what I read in the Financial Times when it comes to my door each day, nor what I read as I cruise around the web.
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REALLY? Do tell us what the Financial Times claims and provide a credible link to the source.

jackalope said:
They do not reflect anything other than partisanship, in fact. I find them as uncompelling as I found the Bush administrations assertions that we were not in recession, when we were heading into a ditch.
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REALLY? So share with me what part of my comments about the economy are "partisan."
 
Goldenboy219 said:
Come on TD, you have to do better than that....

As little as 25% of US government debt is held by foreign entities. Therefore, under your assumptions, $375 million is being paid to US citizens and agencies.

But bless your little heart;)
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Once again your comments are begging for a point; and a fact check. The fact is that the biggest holders of Treasury notes are indeed foreign entities with other State Governments coming in at a close second. Yes there are some trusts and citizens who hold the notes; so what?

Now with that, is there a point to your nonsense? Are you arguing that borrowing $12 trillion and paying almost $500 million per day in interest is a GOOD thing???? REALLY????
 
Truth Detector said:
Wrong again; the FED doles them out; other nations, corporations, trusts and state Governments hold them.

:2wave:
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Careful when dislodging your foot from your mouth. It is the Treasury, not the Fed, that issues debt based on the deficit spending of the US government. The Fed uses the purchasing and selling of these specific assets to inject/retract the amount of money within the economy.

At this point in time, the Fed holds hundreds of billions of dollars in high rated US dollar denominated securities, of which, US Treasuries make up largest piece.
 
Truth Detector said:
Once again your comments are begging for a point; and a fact check. The fact is that the biggest holders of Treasury notes are indeed foreign entities with other State Governments coming in at a close second. Yes there are some trusts and citizens who hold the notes; so what?
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Another TD epic failure!

Estimated_ownership_of_US_Treasury_securities_by_category_0608.jpg


Now with that, is there a point to your nonsense? Are you arguing that borrowing $12 trillion and paying almost $500 million per day in interest is a GOOD thing???? REALLY????
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No, but it is not as serious as you make it out to be. Specific determinants need to be taken into consideration before proper analysis is made. Of which, you do not seem capable of either....
 
Truth Detector said:
Wrong again; the FED doles them out; other nations, corporations, trusts and state Governments hold them.

:2wave:
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Ahhemm the fed reserve just completed a 300 billion buy today of treasury notes. Ill link later.
 
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