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Thread: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by disneydude View Post
    Why would GWB get the credit? He's the one that got us into this mess.
    Many of the developments that led to the destructive housing bubble and credit boom/imbalances (fiscal and trade) that fueled it, financial innovations that amplified risk, lack of appropriate regulation, etc., go back much farther than the Bush Administration. Many--including at the household level--bear a degree of responsibility for what happened.

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by disneydude View Post
    Even more funny is the denial coming from the last remaining Bush apologists out there.
    Even funnier are your farcical assertions that I am Bush apologist or that I am the last remaining one; but alas, you are a Librul and facts and honesty never have had a place in your demagoguery did they?

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by winston53660 View Post
    What is a "Librul"?
    Simple, it is the redneck spelling of "Liberal." After all, dont most arrogant highly opinionated Libruls think their crapola doesn't stink and that anyone who would disagree with them must be just some dumb redneck?


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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by disneydude View Post
    a poor attempt by the uneducated to spell.
    I'll be glad to match my education, experience and credentials with yours any day of the week. But alas, you would never wish to deal in reality and facts would you?

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The point was that in the long-run, output depends strictly on a society's aggregate supply, not aggregate demand.

    In the short-run--and that's what we're dealing with in the recession--shifts in both the aggregate supply and aggregate demand curves impact both prices and output. Hence, increased government spending can, ceteris paribus, increase aggregate demand and, assuming an upward-sloping supply curve, lead to an increase in output (and jobs). That's a short-run remedy for dealing with a shock that reduces aggregate demand. Not surprisingly, annualized real GDP growth for Q3 was 3.5%. Excluding various government efforts ("cash for clunkers," home-buyers' tax credit, other stimulus spending), growth would have been in the 1.5%-2.0% range according to many of the estimates I have seen. At slower growth, more jobs would have been lost than was otherwise the case.
    What is at issue currently has NOTHING to do with prices; it has EVERYTHING to do with demand.

    The artificial demand created by giving away someone else’s money to buy a car is short lived and only exacerbates the recession because the money must be paid for by someone else giving their income up.

    I am stunned that even the most basic common sense escapes the intellectual mighty mights on the Liberal left.

    Clue; in order for Government to give money away, it has to come from someone else; Government does not CREAT or PRODUCE anything, it can only TAX and SPEND.

    The effect of falsely boosting output on the backs of the American taxpayer solves NOTHING and moves NO curves to any degree; it merely extends the pain over a longer timeline.

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Taking measures that might, let's say, reduce the de facto availability of natural resources (e.g., energy) would push aggregate supply to the left (reduce it). In other words, if natural resources useful for the production of energy are reduced via law and that law is enforced, adoption of such a policy would have the same effect as if the natural resources did not exist. Hence, the policy would push the aggregate supply curve to the left. That is not inconsistent with the point concerning what does and does not affect long-run aggregate supply.
    I am struggling to see your point here; you state the obvious but it begs the question, what does this have to do with the farcical economic theories Golden expressed in an effort to suggest that Demand is not a major factor in moving the economy in a positive direction and not supply.

    In your case above, supply and the corresponding prices can be increased if we are willing to drill for more of it; but Obama doesn't want this. The end result of that policy will be less oil, higher prices and a further strangling of an already hard pressed economy that runs on oil.

    Good lord people, how hard is this all to comprehend??? We are not going to conserve our way out of our dependence on oil any more than we are going to be able to green our way to energy independence; particularly if we are not willing to build nuclear power plants in the future.

    Obama’s policies/beliefs are naοve, dangerous and will only lead to much more pain and suffering from EVERYONE with potential GLOBAL impacts into the future.

    Last edited by Truth Detector; 10-30-09 at 08:12 PM.

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Many of the developments that led to the destructive housing bubble and credit boom/imbalances (fiscal and trade) that fueled it, financial innovations that amplified risk, lack of appropriate regulation, etc., go back much farther than the Bush Administration. Many--including at the household level--bear a degree of responsibility for what happened.
    We find some common ground..... Unfortunately people like Disneydude find the truth discomforting.

  7. #127
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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The point was that in the long-run, output depends strictly on a society's aggregate supply, not aggregate demand.

    In the short-run--and that's what we're dealing with in the recession--shifts in both the aggregate supply and aggregate demand curves impact both prices and output. Hence, increased government spending can, ceteris paribus, increase aggregate demand and, assuming an upward-sloping supply curve, lead to an increase in output (and jobs). That's a short-run remedy for dealing with a shock that reduces aggregate demand. Not surprisingly, annualized real GDP growth for Q3 was 3.5%. Excluding various government efforts ("cash for clunkers," home-buyers' tax credit, other stimulus spending), growth would have been in the 1.5%-2.0% range according to many of the estimates I have seen. At slower growth, more jobs would have been lost than was otherwise the case.
    It's a temporary increase in demand. This increase in demand will be offset at some point in the future by the people whose money is used to pay back the government.
    I don't believe your analysis of the growth rate vs jobs lost is correct either.
    Homes and automobiles are in surplus. How many dealerships have been shutdown? The cars from those had to go to other dealerships, these had a surplus of autos. Now that the CfC is over everywhere I see a car dealership they are at maybe 20-25% of their pre 2008 levels. The car makers are simply not replenishing stock. Surplus sell off doesn't increase employment.


    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    Taking measures that might, let's say, reduce the de facto availability of natural resources (e.g., energy) would push aggregate supply to the left (reduce it). In other words, if natural resources useful for the production of energy are reduced via law and that law is enforced, adoption of such a policy would have the same effect as if the natural resources did not exist. Hence, the policy would push the aggregate supply curve to the left. That is not inconsistent with the point concerning what does and does not affect long-run aggregate supply.
    and looking at the chart, what happens to price? it goes up..way up.
    Last edited by Phoenix; 10-30-09 at 08:20 PM.
    From the ashes.

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Quote Originally Posted by Truth Detector View Post
    I'll be glad to match my education, experience and credentials with yours any day of the week. But alas, you would never wish to deal in reality and facts would you?
    I was simply commenting on your ability to spell or was it a poor attempt at satire?
    <font size=5><b>Its been several weeks since the Vegas shooting.  Its it still "Too Early" or can we start having the conversation about finally doing something about these mass shootings???​</b></font>

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    1. i would think that most talented 6th grader economists might agree that real, genuine economic stimulus targeted towards solving our collective depressed condition could most effectively come in the form of PAYROLL TAX CUTS

    a 2 year halving of payroll taxes would almost certainly succeed in exploding jobs growth

    yet, plan pelosi, pure politics at its most repellent, contemplated a comprehensively different approach

    2. deficits at 13% of gdp are economically unsustainable, keynesian suicide

    even that dean of deficits warned against proportions so, well, unsustainable

    3. health care, to me, is a lot like the stimulus

    that is, the party's approach is so perturbingly political

    anytime leadership wanted pre-existing conditions, portability, tort reform, freeing consumers up to purchase across state lines, it could have swept almost universal support (except for trial lawyers and their well lubricated lackeys)

    but, no, obama, pelosi, et al, had far more awesome ambitions in mind

    health care reform, to me, as it's played out, is not about reforming health care, not at its hugely hungry heart

    just as the "stimulus" was not really anything more than traditional porcine, earmarky, business as usual politics at its worst

    i think most chatroom supporters of obama had their dreams punctured by plan pelosi, the so called stimulus

    their tone has never been the same

    they really did expect change they could believe in

    just one man's observation

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    Re: The recession may be over at last — so what now? [edited]

    Yea the recession is over. That's why the stock market is down 200 points today, and why the number of jobs created by the phony stimulus plan are meaningless because over 3 million were lost and until that many are created you did nothing. The few jobs that did come are said to have cost $160,000 each by ABC and they are and Obamedia source. The cash for clunkers mess caused a short term bump but cost $24.000 per car to give people $4,500. Now that's Typical Gov. Project to be proud of. If the recovery is so great why is unemployment in El Centro CA. over 30 % and many, many around 15 to 20 %. The cause is unimportant when the boat is sinking the goal has to be to plug the hole. But not the Dims (no spell error) they want to make it worse with higher taxes on everything from health care cost increases to the Cap and Trade idiocy based on phony science and a hoax. They want to tax the rich even though Ronald Reagan proved that lowering tax rates caused tax revenues to more than double in two years. Obama and his fellow Socialist/Communists want to take money from people who work for it and give it to people who won't work, and this will lead to complete collapse of the Nation. But them that is Obama's stated goal; "Mar 15, 2008 ... "My friends, we live in the greatest nation in the history of the world. I hope you'll join with me as we try to change it". He's trying to change it into a third world Country, just look at who he has around him before it's too late.
    Once again I ask that you wake up America look around at what he is doing and remember these words form the 50s; "We can't expect the American People to jump from Capitalism to Communism, but we can assist their elected leaders in giving them small doses of Socialism, until they awaken one day to find that they have Communism". Nikita Khrushchev

    Keep this in mind, it's a new truism.
    Recession is when your neighbor loses their job.
    Depression is when you lose your Job.
    Recovery is when Obama loses his job.

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