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Thread: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Charles Martel View Post
    I agree deterrence is unreliable, so some form of military action?
    If you agree that Iran cannot be allowed to possess nuclear weapons, then yes.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Charles Martel View Post
    I agree deterrence is unreliable, so some form of military action?
    Well, I would say that airstrikes are a terrible option, but it might just be the best bad option that we have.

    Before we rush to that however, I would attempt to contact dissident groups inside of Iran and take a realistic look at the odds they could orchestrate some kind of rebellion. If that actually works, we can offer to recognize whatever government would come from this in exchange for all Iranian fissile material and an end to the nuclear program. If there is no chance we can get arms into the country and actually get this going, then something is going to have to give.

    Iran (especially an anti-Western Iran) cannot possess a nuclear warhead for a plethora of reasons, and airstrikes only set that goal back, they do not eliminate it. You could also argue that an airstrike makes the climate much more urgent to go ahead and get a bomb, in effect speeding the process up.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension - Yahoo! News



    This is worrying news. Iran seems to be betting that no one will go to war with them to stop them from gaining nukes. The question is whether they are right in that, as we are not in a good situation to go to another war. I don't think just a bombing campaign would be effective.
    Not to mention that Obama's foreign policy adviser Brzezinski suggests shooting down Israeli aircraft over Iraq if they try to strike at Iran.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by FlanaganReport View Post
    Well, I would say that airstrikes are a terrible option, but it might just be the best bad option that we have.

    Before we rush to that however, I would attempt to contact dissident groups inside of Iran and take a realistic look at the odds they could orchestrate some kind of rebellion. If that actually works, we can offer to recognize whatever government would come from this in exchange for all Iranian fissile material and an end to the nuclear program. If there is no chance we can get arms into the country and actually get this going, then something is going to have to give.

    Iran (especially an anti-Western Iran) cannot possess a nuclear warhead for a plethora of reasons, and airstrikes only set that goal back, they do not eliminate it. You could also argue that an airstrike makes the climate much more urgent to go ahead and get a bomb, in effect speeding the process up.

    Ahh!

    Only in the USA are attacks by it on other countries in violation of the UN Charter disscussed by oh so "serious" foreign policy buffs.

    And the funny thing is they try and build their case this illegal act of War by giving us alleged examples of how the rouge country violated International law!

    See how that works?
    Last edited by dragondad; 09-28-09 at 05:52 PM.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by dragondad View Post
    Ahh!

    Only in the USA are attacks by it on other countries in violation of the UN Charter disscussed by oh so "serious" foreign policy buffs.

    And the funny thing is they try and build their case this illegal act of War by giving us alleged examples of how the rouge country violated International law!

    See how that works?
    If we have the backing of the Security Council, it would not be a violation of the Charter to conduct military operations against Iran.

    Really, in my view, the wording of international law is all semantics, and the manner in which it is written allows for us to do what we do.

    Frankly, in my opinion, American interests come before the UN Charter, but if it can be shaped in a manner that is consistent with the Charter and international law, it saves a lot of headaches down the road.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by FlanaganReport View Post
    If we have the backing of the Security Council, it would not be a violation of the Charter to conduct military operations against Iran.

    Really, in my view, the wording of international law is all semantics, and the manner in which it is written allows for us to do what we do.

    Frankly, in my opinion, American interests come before the UN Charter, but if it can be shaped in a manner that is consistent with the Charter and international law, it saves a lot of headaches down the road.
    What a refreshing dose of honesty.

    You are all about the US following International agreements until the point you are not for the US following International agreements.

    American exceptionalism at it's finest..........yet they wonder why the US is hated by many around the World?

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by dragondad View Post
    What a refreshing dose of honesty.

    You are all about the US following International agreements until the point you are not for the US following International agreements.

    American exceptionalism at it's finest..........yet they wonder why the US is hated by many around the World?
    Sorry sport but the UN Charter does not dictate that responding to acts of war is illegal. Iran has perpetrated hundreds upon hundreds of acts of war against the U.S., Israel, and many other countries. The U.S. has been more than restrained, but them attempting to become a nuclear power can not be allowed and we retain the right of self defense.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by dragondad View Post
    What a refreshing dose of honesty.
    I say what I think.

    You are all about the US following International agreements until the point you are not for the US following International agreements.
    I am all for acting within International agreements, but those agreements should never impinge the ability of the United States to protect its interests.

    American exceptionalism at it's finest..........yet they wonder why the US is hated by many around the World?
    I do not wonder, I do not care if we are loved or not. Most of the world does not hate the United States, and the good we accomplish far outweighs the bad.

    All of that said, we will arguable pick up just as many friends by "dealing" with Iran (not saying that is the correct path) as we will lose by doing the same.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Scorpion89 View Post
    Yes and No the real question is how long can Western Power keep Israel from going in an destroying these site along with some of the other Military Sites.

    We already know that Saudia Arabia and Jordon will not stop them from flying thru there Airspace.

    I personally see a three to four prong attack by Israel not only taking out these plants but hitting their(Iran) Air Defence and Naval Base's.
    I think you are correct, Scorpion. I also think Israel would need to cripple Iran's southernmost seaports to prevent Iran from interfering with shipments of oil traveling through the Strait of Hormuz.

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    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    The Center for Strategic and International Studies did a study on what an Israeli strike against Iranian nuclear sites would look like. It goes through number of planes needed, routes, projected losses, flying patterns of tankers, political backlash, etc... It is worth the read.

    Some highlights:
    A military strike by Israel against Iranian Nuclear Facilities is possible and the optimum route would be along the Syrian-Turkish border then over a small portion of Iraq then into Iran, and back the same route. However, the number of aircraft required, refueling along the way and getting to the targets without being detected or intercepted would be complex and high risk and would lack any assurances that the overall mission will have a high success rate.

    With regard to the Arab States, most probably they will not condone any attack on Iran under the pretext that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel and a security threat to the whole region, whilst Israel has some 200 to 300 nuclear weapons, and the delivery means using the Jericho missiles, in addition to Israel still occupying the West Bank and the Syrian Golan Heights.

    The more there is an Israeli threat to the survival of the regime in Iran, the more Iran will be determined to acquire nuclear weapons. Iran would withdraw from the NPT based on the argument that it needs to acquire nuclear weapons to protect its sovereignty and any further aggression by Israel and the U.S.

    A strike by Israel on Iran will give rise to regional instability and conflict as well as terrorism.

    Certainly we can debate the points, but it sets up a good foundation to understand the complexities of a large scale military operation. Read the whole study here.

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