Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast
Results 41 to 50 of 83

Thread: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

  1. #41
    Banned Goobieman's Avatar
    Join Date
    Feb 2006
    Last Seen
    03-22-15 @ 02:36 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Very Conservative
    Posts
    17,343

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by FlanaganReport View Post
    That would be a ridiculous argument. Firstly, if Iran does obtain nuclear weapons and decide to use them (which I still view as a long shot), it will be Israel who responds in a nuclear fashion, not the United States.
    Presuming that Iran uses its nukes on Israel. If she uses them elsewhere...
    Never mind that the US may very well retalliate for an Iranian strike on Israel.

    But, you're right -- the argument is ridiculous.
    I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that someone will present it.

  2. #42
    Tavern Bartender
    Constitutionalist
    American's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:42 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    76,306

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Charles Martel View Post
    Let's see...we decide to withdraw a planned missile and listening station in Eastern Europe....and the Iranians immediately test their medium range ballistic missiles that can easily reach Eastern Europe.

    Obama is a genius.
    Poland is highly pissed, btw.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

  3. #43
    Tavern Bartender
    Constitutionalist
    American's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Virginia
    Last Seen
    Today @ 06:42 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    76,306

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by FlanaganReport View Post
    True, but the Israeli system would prove ineffective in preventing a mass missile barrage should one occur.
    You think Iran has that many missiles?
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
    "Fly-over" country voted, and The Donald is now POTUS.

  4. #44
    Student
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Last Seen
    07-19-11 @ 08:58 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    205

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    Presuming that Iran uses its nukes on Israel. If she uses them elsewhere...
    True, that could change the ballgame. I do not really see much incentive for them to do that however, but anything can happen.

    Never mind that the US may very well retalliate for an Iranian strike on Israel.
    I do not think that we would, unless Israel was completely incapacitated. I think we would simply back an Israel retaliatory strike, which would come in short order no doubt.

    But, you're right -- the argument is ridiculous.
    I'll bet dollars to doughnuts that someone will present it.
    Ha, most likely. Personally I think the faith people put into deterrence and mutually assured destruction is misguided.

  5. #45
    Student
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Last Seen
    07-19-11 @ 08:58 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    205

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by American View Post
    You think Iran has that many missiles?
    Well, the defense Israel has against an incoming missile from Iran would be the Arrow system and an early Patriot system (PAC-2). Both of these systems are designed for terminal intercepts, meaning they intercept in the last stage before the warhead hits. The manner that they intercept is to have the interceptor "blow up" near the target in the hopes that the explosion and fragments destroy the warhead or knock it off course. (The PAC-2 version Israel has works in the same way)

    Additionally, the command and control system of Arrow is designed to respond to up to 14 simultaneous intercepts. That is not difficult to overwhelm. The PAC-2 would be similar based on the number of battery deployments.

    On top of all of that, should the interceptor only knock an incoming warhead off course, (and assuming that would be a nuclear warhead) it would still cause massive damage. Further, even if Iran only possessed 1 warhead, it could launch say 30 missiles at once with one being the nuclear tipped missile. Given the short distance and time frame, Israel would effectively be guessing which missile had the nuclear warhead, and could prove incapable of intercepting all missiles, leading to a nuclear warhead getting through.
    Last edited by FlanaganReport; 09-28-09 at 01:55 PM.

  6. #46
    DEATH TO ANTARCTICA!!!
    Apocalypse's Avatar
    Join Date
    May 2009
    Location
    Israel
    Last Seen
    Today @ 07:22 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Centrist
    Posts
    17,207

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by FlanaganReport View Post
    Additionally, the command and control system of Arrow is designed to respond to up to 14 simultaneous intercepts. That is not difficult to overwhelm.
    Have you considered that in the case of more than 14 missiles fired at Israel, two arrow missiles can be fired to intercept them?

    Edit: I have misread and missed the "command and control" part.
    My mistake.
    Last edited by Apocalypse; 09-28-09 at 02:49 PM.
    "The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis."

    Dante Alighieri

  7. #47
    Student
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Last Seen
    07-19-11 @ 08:58 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    205

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Apocalypse View Post
    Have you considered that in the case of more than 14 missiles fired at Israel, two arrow missiles can be fired to intercept them?
    Well, do you mean that they would try to intercept more than one incoming missile with one interceptor? I think that is highly unlikely, and pretty moronic if Iran clustered its missiles in such a manner for an attack. I imagine an attack would be done at varying altitudes and burn rates to prevent such a scenario.

    If you mean two Arrows for 1 incoming missile, that only further limits the capability to eliminate incoming missiles, which makes the system easier to overwhelm.

    A common misconception (especially about our American missile defense) is that one interceptor equates to one kill. In the best of scenarios that is the case, but in the real world, a 100% success rate of one shot one kill is highly unlikely, which makes redundant capability all the more pressing.

  8. #48
    Professor Charles Martel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Seen
    03-21-10 @ 08:48 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    1,668

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by FlanaganReport View Post
    That would be a ridiculous argument. Firstly, if Iran does obtain nuclear weapons and decide to use them (which I still view as a long shot), it will be Israel who responds in a nuclear fashion, not the United States.
    Really...so a nuclear weapon goes off near or in Isreal in ten years without a missile flight path to trace....Who is to be responded to? It would take months to deal with the human carnage and you'd have no immediate suspect. Al-Qaeda with a Pakistani bomb, some Khan network outlet, Syria via technology from North Korea or from Iran? Would you know? Would you just attack Iran immediately assuming it was them?

    I have little doubt that should this occur, anyone would hesitate to respond with overwhelming nuclear superiority.
    And I'm not so sure. Once blame was assigned...and it would probably be months later.....would retaliation really be that overwhelming or immediate? Would Israel send a response, or would it be decided to go after just the leadership of the nation that was to blame?

    Perhaps someone would make that argument, but they would look like an idiot doing it in my view.
    Good thing others can think outside your view.

  9. #49
    Student
    Join Date
    Aug 2009
    Last Seen
    07-19-11 @ 08:58 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    205

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    Quote Originally Posted by Charles Martel View Post
    Really...so a nuclear weapon goes off near or in Isreal in ten years without a missile flight path to trace....Who is to be responded to? It would take months to deal with the human carnage and you'd have no immediate suspect. Al-Qaeda with a Pakistani bomb, some Khan network outlet, Syria via technology from North Korea or from Iran? Would you know? Would you just attack Iran immediately assuming it was them?
    Alright, let me clarify, I was operating under the assumption that Iran would have just straight up shot a nuclear tipped missile at Israel, and that is what my statement was based on.

    As for your scenario, that is a tough one. When I was in school, we used to run scenarios like that, although they were typically about a bomb going on in the US.

    Here is one:

    The Pakistani government comes to you and says they have lost some nuclear warheads. What do you do? Then of course if follows a progression of a few days and eventually cities start to be destroyed, but still what do you do? Its a tough one.

    And I'm not so sure. Once blame was assigned...and it would probably be months later.....would retaliation really be that overwhelming or immediate? Would Israel send a response, or would it be decided to go after just the leadership of the nation that was to blame?
    It would no doubt be months later. The DOE puts something like a six month time frame on a "preliminary" report. But again, I was operating under the assumption that it would be clear who fired the warhead. Obviously, your scenario is a bit different and would require a different response.


    Good thing others can think outside your view.
    Perhaps, my view is mine view, nothing more. That said, I still continue to stick with the view that deterrence is at best unreliable.

  10. #50
    Professor Charles Martel's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2009
    Last Seen
    03-21-10 @ 08:48 PM
    Gender
    Lean
    Conservative
    Posts
    1,668

    Re: Iran test-fires missiles amid nuclear tension

    I agree deterrence is unreliable, so some form of military action?

Page 5 of 9 FirstFirst ... 34567 ... LastLast

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •