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Thread: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

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    Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    1. More devastatingly dire economic tidings.

    2. After four months of gimpy gains, home sales fell 2.7% in August.

    3. And that's with the artificial stimulant of $8000 dollars in tax credits for first time buyers, an inducement scheduled to end in November.

    4. One third of the few transactions which did close last month were consummated by new home owners.

    5. The median price of a house fell to $177,700, down 12.5% from a year ago.

    6. 30% of deals were foreclosures or similarly distressed sales.

    7. Movement of homes over 2 million dollars are down 40%.

    8. There are 3.5 million properties currently on the market, an 8.5 month supply at current sales rates.

    9. No bottom in sight.

    10. Unemployment near 10% has got to be the most pertinent explanation for the failure of real estate to rebound.

    Existing-Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly; Market Weak - Real Estate * US * News * Story - CNBC.com

    Existing-home sales dipped unexpectedly last month after a four-month streak of gains, providing evidence that the housing market recovery remains fragile.

    The National Association of Realtors said Thursday that sales dropped 2.7 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million in August, from a pace of 5.24 million in July.

    The Prof

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    This is unexpected? The government is working to make sure that home prices do not fall; of course home sales will drop.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    Quote Originally Posted by phattonez View Post
    The government is working to make sure that home prices do not fall
    yes, and the govt is failing

    and no, not unexpected at all

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    yes, and the govt is failing

    and no, not unexpected at all
    Of course it's failing. No one can skirt the laws of economics.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    That sucks for everyone who owns a home. But as for me.....

    LOWER!!! GO LOWER BABY!! OH yAY!!!111 I wouldn't mind a house and with less than 5.5% interest rate right now its only a dream if the pricing and rates go lower. WAHOO!!!

    Scourge will definitely have a house (maybe two) within the next few years.
    If you believe in the Supernatural then you can become a millionaire!

    Questioning or criticizing another's core beliefs is inadvertently perceived as offensive and rude.

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    That's something that's never mentioned. The affordability of homes goes up when prices go down. More people can afford a home if prices go down. I thought that the Democrats were all about helping the poor. I guess even Democrats can be hypocritical, it's not just a Republican game.

    Who shall ascend the hill of the Lord? And who shall stand in his holy place? He who has clean hands and a pure heart, who does not lift up his soul to what is false, and does not swear deceitfully. Psalm 24
    "True law is right reason in agreement with nature . . . Whoever is disobedient is fleeing from himself and denying his human nature [and] will suffer the worst penalties . . ." - Cicero

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    Quote Originally Posted by The Prof View Post
    1. More devastatingly dire economic tidings.
    Why is this dip devastating and dire? There was a four month trend of growth and now a small slow down. It's devastating and dire if it continues for a long period and stalls the recovery in a more meaningful way.


    2. After four months of gimpy gains, home sales fell 2.7% in August.
    Yep. See above

    3. And that's with the artificial stimulant of $8000 dollars in tax credits for first time buyers, an inducement scheduled to end in November.
    Which likely helped bring about the growth earlier in the year.

    4. One third of the few transactions which did close last month were consummated by new home owners.
    Is that a problem? You have to get the old sh*t off the inventory shelves to start clearing out the new. It's got to start somewhere. I don't know the percentage, but of those people selling those houses to the first time home buyers, how many turned around and bought a bigger, nicer, 15 year home?

    It's also very nice that so many people have become homeowners.

    5. The median price of a house fell to $177,700, down 12.5% from a year ago.
    I don't think anyone can get an accurate picture by taking the median sales nationally since some areas are doing better and some not so great. Prices are still higher in most places than what they were at the start of the overinflated pricing 6-7 years ago.

    I built my current house in 2002, and if I sold tomorrow, I'd still realize a profit. It wouldn't be as large as it would have been at peak in 2004, but I will more than make up for the on the other end when I buy a nicer home for less than I would have in 2004. So it's all relative, and it certainly doesn't scare me.

    6. 30% of deals were foreclosures or similarly distressed sales.
    So? Would you rather they stay on the books? They need to get sold so the market can pick up again.

    7. Movement of homes over 2 million dollars are down 40%.
    Movement in homes over 300,000 are probably down too, and that's probably a lot more concerning than what's going on with 2 million dollar homes however, it's not as sensational.


    8. There are 3.5 million properties currently on the market, an 8.5 month supply at current sales rates.
    With the holidays and winter around the corner, those prices will most likely have to come down. People need to be realistic.

    9. No bottom in sight.
    That's right, and you won't know when the bottom has hit until it has passed.

    10. Unemployment near 10% has got to be the most pertinent explanation for the failure of real estate to rebound.
    NAR didn't say that and neither did any other "expert" in the article you linked. It's a little dishonest to pepper in your opinion and not somehow set it apart from the facts you're quoting.

    Lawrence Yun, the Realtor's chief economist, said the drop may reflect delays in completing sales due to tough lending standards and new rules for appraisals.
    This is likely the biggest factor in the " temporart blip," and it's been a huge problem for home buyers. These ridiculous new regualtions which took effect May 1 have caused things to slow down on the mortgage end. It's not the least bit surprising to see its effects a few months later.

    The new regs irt appraisals IMO has been the most damning. If you are concerned about the real estate market, you may want to look there.
    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    You guys are weird.

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    The housing market must be controlled, to many times it has caused an unsustainable boom, leading to the inevitable bust.
    Last edited by B L Zeebub; 09-25-09 at 08:31 AM.

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    Quote Originally Posted by B L Zeebub View Post
    The housing market must be controlled, to many times it has caused an unsustainable boom, leading to the inevitable bust.

    When gov't starts messing with controlling things in the private sector, things go haywire. The gov't has stepped in w/new mortage regulations, and it slowed things down. The Feds need to stay out of this.
    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    You guys are weird.

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    Re: Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

    BTW with those first time home buyers, do you realize that with current programs like FHA, they only have to cough up 3.5% down payment? And because sellers are desperate to sell, buyers are demanding sellers pay that along w/their closing costs.

    So basically, the same BS that got us into this mess is happening again. People who cannot afford to buy a house are buying a house. We'll see if they have the self discipline to pay their mortgage on time each month.
    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    You guys are weird.

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