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Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly

My prediction is that the Obama Administrations efforts will make the Carter years look like a cake walk in comparison. If Americans do not vote these morons out of the Legislature next fall, there is certainly no redeeming hope for our economy.

I'm more worried about a return to the FDR years where the government absolutely refused to let the economy correct. We, as the people who are supposed to be in charge of this country, have completely ignored time-tested economic principals in favor of feel-good economics that promises that we never have to lose our jobs and that we can work at the same job for the rest of our lives. Unfortunately, life is not always that easy.
 
You can blame the first crash on the Bush administration,

Once again this claim is false; the crash came about as a direct result of Government creation of false markets in CRAs and the lack of desire to deal with the issue in 2004 when Republicans wanted to pass stronger restrictions to Fannie Mae and Freddie Macs outrageous loan policies.

There were other market issues through he creation of highly risky packaging of these subprime mortgages into tradable securities on the false claim they were very safe and secured by assets that were basically non-existent.

In addition, Credit Default Swaps and the use of derivatives fed the frenzy which allowed corporations to take on HIGH risk with little return if the "bet" didn't work out.

I would like you to name ONE Bush Policy that caused the collapse of the financial markets.

Here is what REALLY caused the collapse which had nothing to do with Bush policies:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1RZVw3no2A4"]YouTube - Burning Down The House: What Caused Our Economic Crisis? Bombshell[/ame]

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_MGT_cSi7Rs&feature=related"]YouTube - Shocking Video Unearthed Democrats in their own words Covering up the Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Scam that caused our Economic Crisis[/ame]


Badgered by lawmakers, former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan denied the nation's economic crisis was his fault on Thursday but conceded the meltdown had revealed a flaw in a lifetime of economic thinking and left him in a "state of shocked disbelief."

Greenspan Says Economic Crisis Not His Fault, Calls It 'Once-in-a-Century Tsunami' - Politics | Republican Party | Democratic Party | Political Spectrum - FOXNews.com

A funny analogy that factually describes the problem in a simple funny way:

[ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fPI8XFfBxHk&feature=related"]YouTube - Financial Crisis Explained: Subprime Mortgage[/ame]
 
Why is this dip devastating and dire? There was a four month trend of growth and now a small slow down. It's devastating and dire if it continues for a long period and stalls the recovery in a more meaningful way.



Yep. See above



Which likely helped bring about the growth earlier in the year.



Is that a problem? You have to get the old sh*t off the inventory shelves to start clearing out the new. It's got to start somewhere. I don't know the percentage, but of those people selling those houses to the first time home buyers, how many turned around and bought a bigger, nicer, 15 year home?

It's also very nice that so many people have become homeowners.



I don't think anyone can get an accurate picture by taking the median sales nationally since some areas are doing better and some not so great. Prices are still higher in most places than what they were at the start of the overinflated pricing 6-7 years ago.

I built my current house in 2002, and if I sold tomorrow, I'd still realize a profit. It wouldn't be as large as it would have been at peak in 2004, but I will more than make up for the on the other end when I buy a nicer home for less than I would have in 2004. So it's all relative, and it certainly doesn't scare me.



So? Would you rather they stay on the books? They need to get sold so the market can pick up again.



Movement in homes over 300,000 are probably down too, and that's probably a lot more concerning than what's going on with 2 million dollar homes however, it's not as sensational.




With the holidays and winter around the corner, those prices will most likely have to come down. People need to be realistic.



That's right, and you won't know when the bottom has hit until it has passed.



NAR didn't say that and neither did any other "expert" in the article you linked. It's a little dishonest to pepper in your opinion and not somehow set it apart from the facts you're quoting.



This is likely the biggest factor in the " temporart blip," and it's been a huge problem for home buyers. These ridiculous new regualtions which took effect May 1 have caused things to slow down on the mortgage end. It's not the least bit surprising to see its effects a few months later.

The new regs irt appraisals IMO has been the most damning. If you are concerned about the real estate market, you may want to look there.

thank you for your civility and thoughtfulness, you have demonstrated in this thread that you really are a stand up chuck

why is this drop in home sales devastating and dire? because we're already way below water, and instead of surfacing we're sinking further

the point about new home buyers is not political, it's simply that that with sales already being abysmally low EVEN WITH an $8000 incentive, how's the future look when the tax credit is yanked in november?

thus, it's not a problem, the fact that 1/3 of buyers are first timers, to answer your fair, stand-up question, except as an indicator of our bleaker outlook when the $8000 inducement is erased

sales under 300G being down is more problematical, according to you---yes

but it's not good---according to you

you agree there's no bottom in sight while asking what's so dire

???

my opinion about unemployment nearing 10% negatively impacting sales was, indeed, my personal view---i said, it "has got to be the most pertinent explanation" for why we're here---if that's too opinionated for you, i apologize

i thought, however, the connection was obvious

in a later post, you say, "the same bs that got us into this mess is happening again"

that's not dire?

thanks, friend, i'm happy that your home has appreciated above its value when you bought it

mine too

cliff
 
Saving money for a downpayment is a good indication that someone is serious about managing their funds (as is the credit report). Not only that, if I sink $50,000 of my own hard earned cash into a property, then it's less likely that I will just walk away from the mortgage.

edit because I realize you're talking about more than just the downpayment. There are people who lost their jobs and could no longer afford to keep their homes. Then there are the people who over spent on BS and can no longer afford to keep making payments on everything. The latter is quite common yet rarely talked about.

indeed!

how many of us know personally people who are trapped inside houses on which they owe significantly more than the homes are worth, with $3000 per month mortgages?

i know several (they're school teachers)

they planned on refinancing, as you appreciate

how many of us are personally in such an upside down position?

it's tragic, i agree

cliff
 
See, that's the thing. I don't think the latter is quite common. Yes, when people lose their jobs, or **** happens, then yeah, chances are the will default. But I have a hard time seeing people buying TVs, cars, trips, and furs over making mortgage payments.

Obviously you have never been in the "Real Estate" business... I've seen people get financing on a new home and 3 days before closing, go out and buy a new car........ swoosh........ there went the financing.
What has not been talked about much since this whole crisis, is lenders not caring about who they are lending to. To me, that is beyond reason to the point where I cannot even phathom it. But it did happen. People making less that $30,000 were allowed/encouraged to buy houses with values over $500,000. That's insane, and a huge cause of the housing crisis.

You can thank Acorn for part of that.... they brought law suits and blockaded lenders that refused minorities mortgages that they couldn't afford. You can also thank the Libs for passing laws that required low income loans for housing to people that couldn't afford them, and then blocking any attempt to investigate and reform those stupid laws. You can also thank the Republicans for not having the guts to over ride all the above.
 
indeed!

how many of us know personally people who are trapped inside houses on which they owe significantly more than the homes are worth, with $3000 per month mortgages?

i know several (they're school teachers)

they planned on refinancing, as you appreciate

how many of us are personally in such an upside down position?

it's tragic, i agree

cliff
For people who plan on living in their homes then this isn't an issue unless they need to move in the next couple years.

For people who view their home a short term investment it is very bad. But there is risk in any investment. Homes are not immune to this.
 
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:rofl I am always amused at the notions that the Government can control anything and that with more Government interventions all risk in life can be avoided.

The FACT is that home prices will continue to decline as unemployment continues to climb with no end in sight and jobs continue to vanish. Many home owners who have been looking for jobs since the beginning of this "Change" Administration have been staring foreclosure in the face and now the beginning of a new wave of foreclosures and further declines in home prices can be expected.

BUT, the news we are not hearing is an impending tide of Commercial foreclosures on the horizon which will once again exacerbate the real estate markets decline and cause further job losses.

The commercial forecloses will make the current market look like a pimple next to that hand grenade that just went off in your belly... this is a real serious problem that if the government gets involved in solving, buy bullets and freeze dried food.
By next year when Democrats are finally honest with the American people about how ALL of us will be paying MORE taxes and fees to pay for their incredibly misguided spending spree, expect even less spending, more commercial closures and LES jobs again.

Compound that with the potential devastation cap and trade will have on manufacturing and we have a REAL disaster looming on the horizon.

My prediction is that the Obama Administrations efforts will make the Carter years look like a cake walk in comparison. If Americans do not vote these morons out of the Legislature next fall, there is certainly no redeeming hope for our economy.
 
For people who plan on living in their homes then this isn't an issue unless they need to move in the next couple years.

For people who view their home a short term investment it is very bad. But there is risk in any investment. Homes are not immune to this.

ok

but it's a dreadful development for our economy at large

as stand up chuck points out, it's precisely how we got where we are
 
The commercial forecloses will make the current market look like a pimple next to that hand grenade that just went off in your belly... this is a real serious problem that if the government gets involved in solving, buy bullets and freeze dried food.

Speaking of which, this is the latest I received from ICSC; the International Council of Shopping Centers of which I am a member:

Property values must trough before recovery can begin, conference told

The commercial real estate markets will not rebound until buyers and sellers agree on prices. In the meantime, vast amounts of debt and equity will continue to sit on the sidelines, executives said Thursday at the ICSC Capital Markets Conference, in New York City.


Prices will not reach their trough until 2011 or 2012, predicted Timothy Zietara, a senior director and manager at New York City–based ING Clarion Capital.

ICSC: International Council of Shopping Centers
 
Obviously you have never been in the "Real Estate" business... I've seen people get financing on a new home and 3 days before closing, go out and buy a new car........ swoosh........ there went the financing.

It's because people view a home as a get-rich-quick scheme (or used to) and not as a product that they're buying.
 
Obviously you have never been in the "Real Estate" business... I've seen people get financing on a new home and 3 days before closing, go out and buy a new car........ swoosh........ there went the financing.
Wow, you convinced me!!!111!!!!

Not.

Do you doubt that predatory lending happened??? Do you doubt that $500,000 homes were financed to people who work minumum wage???

And why is it, that all of a sudden, in the last few years, people have defaulted on their mortgages like never before. Why is that, Crunch??? All of a sudden, outta the blue, people randomly decided that they would rather spend their money on cars rather than their mortgage. Like aliens came to earth and brainwashed them to do so. :doh

You can thank Acorn for part of that.... they brought law suits and blockaded lenders that refused minorities mortgages that they couldn't afford. You can also thank the Libs for passing laws that required low income loans for housing to people that couldn't afford them, and then blocking any attempt to investigate and reform those stupid laws. You can also thank the Republicans for not having the guts to over ride all the above.


Good gad, I don't know where to begin with this drivel.

Do us all a favor and look up predatory lending. That's the crux of what really happened.
 
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That sucks for everyone who owns a home. But as for me.....

LOWER!!! GO LOWER BABY!! OH yAY!!!111 I wouldn't mind a house and with less than 5.5% interest rate right now its only a dream if the pricing and rates go lower. WAHOO!!!

Scourge will definitely have a house (maybe two) within the next few years.

Ha! Same here. Trying to buy a town house up here in Northern Virginia right now and hoping to close before the November 30th deadline for the tax credit.

The Short Sale I've got a contract on is for about $125k less than what it was bought for in 2005. We have a new metro line coming into the area and a stop not to far form the house and historically anywhere in the DC Metro area that gets a Metro also see's enormous rise in property values. I figure in 5 years when the line is completed, the market should at least be on a bit of an incline, and between that and the rise in proprety values will be a great time to resell it and probably get a good return.
 
Do you doubt that predatory lending happened??? Do you doubt that $500,000 homes were financed to people who work minumum wage???
.

That I do doubt.
 
Obviously you have never been in the "Real Estate" business... I've seen people get financing on a new home and 3 days before closing, go out and buy a new car........ swoosh........ there went the financing.
Wow, you convinced me!!!111!!!!

Not.

Do you doubt that predatory lending happened??? Do you doubt that $500,000 homes were financed to people who work minumum wage???

And why is it, that all of a sudden, in the last few years, people have defaulted on their mortgages like never before. Why is that, Crunch??? All of a sudden, outta the blue, people randomly decided that they would rather spend their money on cars rather than their mortgage. Like aliens came to earth and brainwashed them to do so. :doh




Good gad, I don't know where to begin with this drivel.

Do us all a favor and look up predatory lending. That's the crux of what really happened.

The answers to your questions have been made countless times in countless threads; your continued feigning of ignorance hardly makes a case for your desperate and false assertions that the Global meltdown occurred because of the actions of some unscrupulous lenders.

Instead of attacking Crunch, why don't you read the links being provided and the logical facts of his arguments rather than engaging in a trite dismissal due to the fact that you appear to be immune from the facts?

I am certain that you would remain unconvinced if the facts walked up to you and said; “Crunch is right.”

Here are the answers to all your never ending queries if only you would spend a minute of your valuable time becoming informed instead if spewing your nonsensical Liberal talking points:

http://www.debatepolitics.com/break...es-decline-unexpectedly-3.html#post1058272406
 
Do us all a favor and look up predatory lending. That's the crux of what really happened.

So the people who took out the loans knowing that there was no possible way for them to pay back this money are not to blame at all?

Funny, I haven't heard one story of a company holding a gun to someone's head and forcing them to get a loan.
 
There's a little thing called a Truth in Lending Statement that lenders are required to provide to mortgage applicants w/in 3 days of them making application. People can have a pretty good idea of what their monthly mortgage and their closing costs will be. This document is required. If those nimrods didn't realize that $3,600/month was going to hurt, then they're just ... well .... they're just nimrods.

Crunch speaketh the truth about people charging up a storm to furnish their new homes. People today aren't like our parents' generation who didn't mind using a fold up card table for a dining room table until they could afford a real set. Today people want everything perfect in the first few months.

There's a little talked about phenomenon out there in the foreclosure world that should make you sick. There are people who own a home and decide to go out and buy a new, larger home without selling their first home first. They're settled in their new digs all fat and happy, and they realize that their first house just isn't going to sell (or isn't going to sell for what they expect). So they let it foreclose. No skin off their backs. They have their current, fabulous house. They won't need to apply for another mortgage until the current foreclosure falls off their records.

Obama had some foreclosure relief program a while ago. I can't remember the details, but I shook my head when I saw it. What the administration is either ignoring or doesn't care about is that many people do not want relief. They want the obligation to pay back gone.

I'm looking out my back window, and there are 2 houses that went through exactly this in the past 2 years. What you think is hardship, you may find is often stupidity or sleaziness. Just do a search on the homeowner's name. You can find out easy enough if they purchased a new home prior to foreclosure on the old one.

Cliff, no I do not think the situation is dire (yet). I have never bought a home I couldn't sell quickly, and I have never bought a home where I did not have at least 20% equity right out of the gate. We put 50% down on this house, and that's not because we're rich. It's because we were smart money managers.
 
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So the people who took out the loans knowing that there was no possible way for them to pay back this money are not to blame at all?

Funny, I haven't heard one story of a company holding a gun to someone's head and forcing them to get a loan.

The people who loaned the money did so, knowing full well that it would mostly likely be defaulted. The just passed the burden onto someone else, and made profits by doing so.

And, if someone on welfare has asked you to borrow $1000, would you?
 
The people who loaned the money did so, knowing full well that it would mostly likely be defaulted. The just passed the burden onto someone else, and made profits by doing so.

And, if someone on welfare has asked you to borrow $1000, would you?

Many lenders had no choice. The market was booming, so the money was there. The gov't made it their business to make sure lenders were making loans to lower income people.
 
There's a little thing called a Truth in Lending Statement that lenders are required to provide to mortgage applicants w/in 3 days of them making application. People can have a pretty good idea of what their monthly mortgage and their closing costs will be. This document is required. If those nimrods didn't realize that $3,600/month was going to hurt, then they're just ... well .... they're just nimrods.

Crunch speaketh the truth about people charging up a storm to furnish their new homes. People today aren't like our parents' generation who didn't mind using a fold up card table for a dining room table until they could afford a real set. Today people want everything perfect in the first few months.

There's a little talked about phenomenon out there in the foreclosure world that should make you sick. There are people who own a home and decide to go out and buy a new, larger home without selling their first home first. They're settled in their new digs all fat and happy, and they realize that their first house just isn't going to sell (or isn't going to sell for what they expect). So they let it foreclose. No skin off their backs. They have their current, fabulous house. They won't need to apply for another mortgage until the current foreclosure falls off their records.

Obama had some foreclosure relief program a while ago. I can't remember the details, but I shook my head when I saw it. What the administration is either ignoring or doesn't care about is that many people do not want relief. They want the obligation to pay back gone.

I'm looking out my back window, and there are 2 houses that went through exactly this in the past 2 years. What you think is hardship, you may find is often stupidity or sleaziness. Just do a search on the homeowner's name. You can find out easy enough if they purchased a new home prior to foreclosure on the old one.

Cliff, no I do not think the situation is dire (yet). I have never bought a home I couldn't sell quickly, and I have never bought a home where I did not have at least 20% equity right out of the gate. We put 50% down on this house, and that's not because we're rich. It's because we were smart money managers.

Chuck, people were told to exaggerate and lie on their applications. By who? THE LENDERS.
 
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Chuck, people were told to exaggerate and lie on their applications. By who? THE LENDERS.

So the people taking out the loans are not at fault for going along with it?
 
Chuck, people were told to exxagerate and lie on their applications. By who? THE LENDERS.

Well, I'd like to see proof of that, but even so, let me turn this back onto you the way you did a few posts ago. If someone tells you to lie on an application, are you going to do it? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Either way, that doesn't refute what I posted. Let's say that the evil bankers told the applicants to lie. What did the applicants think when they saw their TIL? When they saw what their estimated monthly payments were going to be, they had plenty of time to back out. They just didn't want to do it because to hell with the bank. They felt entitled to a 4 bedroom house with a 3 car garage. And chances are, they got to stay in the house free of charge for at least 9 months after that.
 
Well, I'd like to see proof of that, but even so, let me turn this back onto you the way you did a few posts ago. If someone tells you to lie on an application, are you going to do it? I sure as hell wouldn't.

Either way, that doesn't refute what I posted. Let's say that the evil bankers told the applicants to lie. What did the applicants think when they saw their TIL? When they saw what their estimated monthly payments were going to be, they had plenty of time to back out. They just didn't want to do it because to hell with the bank. They felt entitled to a 4 bedroom house with a 3 car garage. And chances are, they got to stay in the house free of charge for at least 9 months after that.

Stated-income loans making a comeback

The number of applications for stated-income loans soared as brokers began signing clients up for no-doc loans even if they had regular jobs and could fully document their income with W-2 forms.

Why?

It allowed them to inflate their client’s income, and that was the only way those clients could qualify for a loan that was big enough to buy the house they wanted.

When hundreds of thousands of these “liar loans” began to default in 2007, lenders discontinued their stated-income mortgage programs.

Two years later some small to medium-sized banks are tiptoeing back into the market.

Around the first of the year, there where numerous news specials and articles on these stated-income loans, and how they where abused by both the lender and the borrower. The practice at some places was for the lender to say that to qualify for the loan, they needed to state they had X annual income on the form, and to specifically mention that no one would check their income.
 
it's called subprime

and you can blame anyone you want, you can talk about how wonderfully better off YOU may be

but out there in the big world, obama's the one who's gonna take the heat

because, as stand up chuck conceded, there's no bottom yet in sight

and as the stand up guy also pointed out, under obama we're continuing many of the same practices that got us all collectively in this mess in the first place

obama's president

no one ever said politics was fair

actually, in this case, it probably is

fix the economy, mr president, or you and your party are dead
 
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it's called subprime

and you can blame anyone you want, you can talk about how wonderfully better off YOU may be

but out there in the big world, obama's the one who's gonna take the heat

because, as stand up chuck conceded, there's no bottom yet in sight

and as the stand up guy also pointed out, under obama we're continuing many of the same practices that got us all collectively in this mess in the first place

obama's president

no one ever said politics was fair

actually, in this case, it probably is

fix the economy, mr president, or you and your party are dead

I didn't concede anything about the bottom being in sight or not. I only said you'll know it when things start to swing upward again.

I am a woman.

I did not blame Obama though he is not helping the situation much (except the tax incentive for First Time Home Buyers).
 
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