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Thread: Obama's approval rating at 45%

  1. #131
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Have you ever taken a statistics class in your life? Do you understand the difference between "all adults" and "likely voters"?

    If the answer to both of those questions is yes, then there's no excuse for this post.


    Have you? You have not demonstrated that you understand how to evaluate the reliability of ANY poll.

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    No, you really should pay attention. If you do not like Nate Silver, go google on your own

    edit to specifically AGAIN address this:

    "When Nate Silver says that Rasmussen is the best pollster out there, you think he's a filthy liar."


    Nate Silver says Rasmussen's ELECTION polling is the best out there. He said NO such thing about his issue polling. Search his site and learn. Try looking for his articles about Rasmussen's health insurance and public option polling. Hint: they suck.
    And I'm asking you for any evidence to support this ridiculous claim.

    If you'd bothered to read your yglesias article beyond the headline, you'd see that his sole criticism of Rasmussen's non-election polling is that he claims (without any evidence) that the wording of the questions is skewed. Setting aside the fact that the degree of skew is dependent on the baseline (which he neglets to discuss), how the **** is "Strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove" a "biased" question?

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    Have you? You have not demonstrated that you understand how to evaluate the reliability of ANY poll.
    Yes, I have.

    I'll ask again: Do you understand the difference between all adults and likely voters? If you did, you would understand why Rasmussen tends to be a few points lower than polls that use all adults. Do you understand why several polls using one methodology are no more authoritative than one poll using a different methodology if you're trying to reach an overall accurate result? If you had taken statistics, you would understand this.

    Comparing Approval Ratings From Different Polling Firms - Rasmussen Reports

    A number of polling firms routinely measure the presidentís job approval ratings. Generally, they all show a similar trend even when the specific numbers are different.

    There are a number of reasons for this, including:

    Likely Voters or Adults? - Some firms poll all adults while others, including Rasmussen Reports, base their results on likely voters. Generally speaking, polls of all adults will show a somewhat higher rating for President Obama than polls of likely voters.

    Why is this? Primarily because some demographic groups such as young adults are less likely to vote than others. These same groups also happen to be segments of the population where the current president gets rave reviews. So if a poll of all adults shows the presidentís approval rating at 60%, youíd expect a comparable poll of likely voters to show a rating of roughly 57%.

    Question Wording - Rasmussen Reports offers survey participants a choice between Strongly Approve, Somewhat Approve, Somewhat Disapprove and Strongly Disapprove. Some firms offer simply Approve or Disapprove while others offer a scale that includes Excellent, Good, Fair or Poor. It is impossible to determine exactly what impact the different wording has on survey results.

    However, it appears that the Somewhat Approve and Somewhat Disapprove categories may encourage some people to voice a minority opinion rather than saying they are not sure. In other words, when a president is popular, a segment of the population might say they Somewhat Disapprove. When a president is unpopular, some might say they Somewhat Approve.

    Methodology - Rasmussen Reports uses an automated polling methodology while some firms use operator-assisted techniques. Generally, these different methodologies generate about the same level of approval for different political figures, but the automated technology generally registers a higher level of disapproval. Thereís no way to be sure why this happens, but it may simply be that some people are reluctant to offer a negative opinion about another human being to a live operator.

    Regardless of the reason, Rasmussen Reports surveys tend to have lower levels of no opinions and higher levels of unfavorable opinions for political figures. But, as with the topline numbers, the trends all move in the same direction.

    It is interesting to note that the number who Strongly Disapprove in a Rasmussen Reports survey is similar to the number who say they Disapprove in most operator-assisted surveys.
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  3. #133
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    And I'm asking you for any evidence to support this ridiculous claim.

    If you'd bothered to read your yglesias article beyond the headline, you'd see that his sole criticism of Rasmussen's non-election polling is that he claims (without any evidence) that the wording of the questions is skewed. Setting aside the fact that the degree of skew is dependent on the baseline (which he neglets to discuss), how the **** is "Strongly approve, somewhat approve, somewhat disapprove, or strongly disapprove" a "biased" question?



    Yes, I have.

    I'll ask again: Do you understand the difference between all adults and likely voters? If you did, you would understand why Rasmussen tends to be a few points lower than polls that use all adults. Do you understand why several polls using one methodology are no more authoritative than one poll using a different methodology if you're trying to reach an overall accurate result? If you had taken statistics, you would understand this.

    Comparing Approval Ratings From Different Polling Firms - Rasmussen Reports

    I gave evidence in this thread - showing other approval rating polls compared to Rasmussen's approval rating polls, Rasmussen was the outlier by 7 pts, not even in the ballpark.

    I gave links to read on both Zogby (they suck) and Rasmussen (their issue polling is biased). You simply choose to ignore it.

    Your continued questions about likely voters and adults are completely irrelevant, they have nothing to do with the problems cited with either Pollster. At least not by me.

    As I said, continue to cite them. You will continue to be mocked for doing so. Righties lovvvvveeeesss them some Rasmussen. For a reason. They apparently like their news spun.


    And, if you don't like Yglesias' article, do some research on your own. Search Nate Silver's site, as I suggested. Try a google. The info is there for you to find.

    Or, simply, note the differences in results b/w Rasmussen issue polling and other pollster polling on the same topic. You will very often find outlier results (quite unlike his election polling).

    And that new number Rasmussen started marketing at the end of 2008, the 'net approval number'? Yea, even he says he has no idea if it means anything, he just needs to have a way to market his product. He's selling, and the wingers are buying.

  4. #134
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    I gave evidence in this thread - showing other approval rating polls compared to Rasmussen's approval rating polls, Rasmussen was the outlier by 7 pts, not even in the ballpark.
    And you still don't understand why this doesn't mean what you think it does.

    I gave links to read on both Zogby (they suck) and Rasmussen (their issue polling is biased). You simply choose to ignore it.
    No, I explained why your article re: rasmussen also didn't support your claim.

    Your continued questions about likely voters and adults are completely irrelevant, they have nothing to do with the problems cited with either Pollster. At least not by me.
    Because those cited problems are a load of ****.

    As I said, continue to cite them. You will continue to be mocked for doing so. Righties lovvvvveeeesss them some Rasmussen. For a reason. They apparently like their news spun.
    And I will continue to shake my head in embarrassment for your sake.

    And, if you don't like Yglesias' article, do some research on your own. Search Nate Silver's site, as I suggested. Try a google. The info is there for you to find.
    Sure, let me get on that and do your research for you.

    Or, simply, note the differences in results b/w Rasmussen issue polling and other pollster polling on the same topic. You will very often find outlier results (quite unlike his election polling).
    Again, you very clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

    And that new number Rasmussen started marketing at the end of 2008, the 'net approval number'? Yea, even he says he has no idea if it means anything, he just needs to have a way to market his product. He's selling, and the wingers are buying.
    So pretend that doesn't exist and look at the approve v. disapprove.

    I'm not going to waste any more time arguing about this with you.
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  5. #135
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    And you still don't understand why this doesn't mean what you think it does.

    No, I explained why your article re: rasmussen also didn't support your claim.

    Because those cited problems are a load of ****.

    And I will continue to shake my head in embarrassment for your sake.

    Sure, let me get on that and do your research for you.

    Again, you very clearly have no idea what you're talking about.

    So pretend that doesn't exist and look at the approve v. disapprove.

    I'm not going to waste any more time arguing about this with you.


    There is nothing to argue about. There is biased polling .... and justifications why it's the best thing since sliced bread. It's funny.

    Like I said waaaayyyy earlier .... Righties LOVE them some Rasmussen.

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