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Thread: Obama's approval rating at 45%

  1. #111
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    obama's entire agenda is completely pfft

    losers, all---cap and trade, the public option, personal diplomacy with iran, reaching out to rogues and runts, blaming bush, closing gitmo, investigating "torture," prosecuting cheney, paygo, cash for clunkers, cutting the deficit in half, czars like van jones, afghanistan, addressing school kids, the stimulus, the car takeovers, bailouts and bonuses for bums and bunglers, ending rendition, ending detention, ending don't ask don't tell, reversing the patriot act, ending earmarks, hiring lobbyists, hiring tax cheats, putting legislation online, transparency, card check, taxing medical benefits (the mccain plan), taxing folks under 250G, deficits at 13% of gdp (keynesian suicide)...

    what great obamite ambition remains within the restricted reach of the Already Irrelevant?

    minimum wage?

    he had it all---both houses, 60 senators, a thrilled media, an entire world all hyped and hyphy for him, the good will of all americans...

    he's a loser

    sorry

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    It doesn't matter what subgroups they were broken up into.
    An analysis that ended on Aug 30 has nothing to do with a poll published on Sep 3, which would be, btw, a three-day rolling average of Aug 31, Sep 1, and Sep 2. Not one of those days were in your analysis ended on Aug 30.

    This really isn't rocket science. What you posted has nothing to do with the poll I posted.
    Okay Mr. Statistical master, then answer why the trend is downward consistently, there are no bumps up, and he is losing support in typically democrat friendly sub-groups of voters, he won't win Republicans, but he is losing Independents and Democrats, he is losing Minorities and every single income bracket, yet he got a 5 point bump up? Sure, sub-groups don't matter.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

  3. #113
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    Okay Mr. Statistical master, then answer why the trend is downward consistently, there are no bumps up, and he is losing support in typically democrat friendly sub-groups of voters, he won't win Republicans, but he is losing Independents and Democrats, he is losing Minorities and every single income bracket, yet he got a 5 point bump up? Sure, sub-groups don't matter.

    I am neither a statistical master, nor a Mr, but the answer to your question is simple. You simply do not understand that an analysis of polls that pre-date your poll have nothing to do with your poll.

    This isn't even statistics. This is basic logic.

    Find an analysis that actually discusses the poll in question, and we'll have something to talk about.

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    I am neither a statistical master, nor a Mr, but the answer to your question is simple. You simply do not understand that an analysis of polls that pre-date your poll have nothing to do with your poll.
    Sorry bout the Mr. Thing, but trends matter when there is a constant rate of either incline or decline, when there is an uptick in Obama's ratings then dismissing older data will be relevent, or even when the trend levels off, but until then, what we have is a downward trending of all concievable blocks, also keep in mind that we are talking about a less politically relevant poll because this one includes those unlikely to vote as well as likely voters, unlike the more accurate Rasmussen/Zogby polls.

    This isn't even statistics. This is basic logic.
    Nope, sorry, but it is illogical to disregard any methodology used, especially when the counter argument is not compatable with the result
    Last edited by LaMidRighter; 09-04-09 at 01:25 PM.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

  5. #115
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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    Sorry bout the Mr. Thing, but trends matter when there is a constant rate of either incline or decline, when there is an uptick in Obama's ratings then dismissing older data will be relevent, or even when the trend levels off, but until then, what we have is a downward trending of all concievable blocks, also keep in mind that we are talking about a less politically relevant poll because this one includes those unlikely to vote as well as likely voters, unlike the more accurate Rasmussen/Zogby polls.

    Nope, sorry, but it is illogical to disregard any methodology used, especially when the counter argument is not compatable with the result

    No problem on the Mr, but to re-iterate, you simply do not understand that an analysis that predates a poll has nothing to do with the poll in question. The link to the analysis you posted discussed absolutely nothing about the poll in question. I could not. It was written before the poll was taken.

    Wait a few days, I'm sure Gallup will post an article on recent approval ratings changes. Which would be relevant.

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    No problem on the Mr, but to re-iterate, you simply do not understand that an analysis that predates a poll has nothing to do with the poll in question. The link to the analysis you posted discussed absolutely nothing about the poll in question. I could not. It was written before the poll was taken.

    Wait a few days, I'm sure Gallup will post an article on recent approval ratings changes. Which would be relevant.
    Here's the deal, I hate political polling, politicians are disingenous and they use the polls to stay employed, this leads to the current mess we have in both of the major parties, I would much rather a system that forces representatives and executives to play the cards based on their ideologies and let things fall where they may. But the reality is we have political polling, and to disregard any analytical data is illogical, that would be like a baseball game with only a limited amount of statistics and declaring a certain winner, not taking into account the sub-variables like how well a hitter handles a given pitcher, how many steals a team allows, a pitchers era versus a team, etc. The fact is these groups were included in analysis without any blips or fluxuations, the trend is constant and down, I do get what you are saying about waiting a few days, but don't see a positive change with the way things are going.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    Here's the deal, I hate political polling, politicians are disingenous and they use the polls to stay employed, this leads to the current mess we have in both of the major parties, I would much rather a system that forces representatives and executives to play the cards based on their ideologies and let things fall where they may. But the reality is we have political polling, and to disregard any analytical data is illogical, ....

    ia w/ you on political polling, however, there IS no analytical data article on the gallup poll posted. Once again, analytical data for a previous poll is not relevant to a subsequent poll. When there IS an analytical data article or chart available for that poll, I'd be happy to discuss it.

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    ia w/ you on political polling, however, there IS no analytical data article on the gallup poll posted. Once again, analytical data for a previous poll is not relevant to a subsequent poll. When there IS an analytical data article or chart available for that poll, I'd be happy to discuss it.
    We'll probably have to agree to disagree on the sub-sets, but I am standing by the assertion that trends matter until they are broken, and this trend has been a constant throughout this presidency.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by LaMidRighter View Post
    We'll probably have to agree to disagree on the sub-sets, but I am standing by the assertion that trends matter until they are broken, and this trend has been a constant throughout this presidency.
    We do not disagree on subsets. HOWEVER, the subset analysis you posted predated the poll that was posted. It is not relevant in any way.

    And yes, trends matter.

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    Re: Obama's approval rating at 45%

    Quote Originally Posted by jackalope View Post
    We do not disagree on subsets. HOWEVER, the subset analysis you posted predated the poll that was posted. It is not relevant in any way.

    And yes, trends matter.
    My overall point is the trend is steadily down, I'll give you that the data needs to be updated, but with the caviotte that I don't see an upward change unless something radically changes from the administration's given actions or message, I don't see that happening within the next few months, while the message may be modified, I think it will be a softer approach to the same mantra which would change little in the way of approval. While this is speculation on my part, it does follow a certain logic given the precedence currently set by our current political class.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

    LMR

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