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Thread: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Someone was defending Obama's deficits on another thread, I'm sure they'll be here soon.
    "He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    We're in the middle of a badass recession. Alot of people are making less than half what they made last year. Most folks don't have the money to pay their taxes in this economy. A tax cut would rake in billions, but we know that ain't gonna happen.
    Huh? If people cannot pay their taxes now, a tax cut which would also increase the deficit wouldn't cause people to pay their taxes anyways. If you cannot pay a 15% tax bracket, you're not going to be able to any a lesser one. Your argument fails to understand that all points on the laffer curve do not behave the same.

    If tax cuts really increased revenue over the baseline collected, tax cuts would pay for themselves. Find me a reputable economist who supports that.
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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    It should be noted that had the Bush Administration not kept signficant expenditures off-budget, the deficit would have been substantially higher. For example, during President Bush's last year in office, gross public debt rose by just over $1 trillion. In part, the recession's rapid deepening contributed. However, in part, earlier tax policy changes, the creation of Medicare Part D, and the off-budget treatment of such expenditures as the costs associated with the Iraq war also contributed. IMO, policy differences aside, transparency would be served by keeping all expenditures on-budget.
    Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)

    Total Public Debt as of 11 August 2009: 11,666,485,985,007.89
    Total Public Debt as of 20 January 2009: 10,626,877,048,913.08

    Change in total public debt: 1,039,608,936,094.81

    Total Public Debt as of 11 August 2008: 9,575,181,268,036.06
    Total Public Debt as of 20 January 2008: 9,188,640,287,930.39

    Change in total public debt: 386,540,980,105.67

    Total Public Debt as of 11 August 2007: 8,968,607,956,049.61
    Total Public Debt as of 20 January 2007: 8,675,085,083,537.48

    Change in total public debt: 293,522,872,512.13

    Total Public Debt as of 11 August 2001: 5,738,213,090,042.93
    Total Public Debt as of 20 January 2001: 5,727,776,738,304.64

    Change in total public debt: 10,436,351,738.29

    Net aggregate spending on Dear Leader's watch is several orders of magnitude larger than anything even contemplated on Bush's.

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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    The current recession is the largest of the post-WW II era. The five worst recessions during that timeframe are:

    Peak-to-Trough Contraction in Real GDP:
    1. 2007-Present: -3.9%
    2. 1957-58: -3.7%
    3. 1973-75: -3.2%
    4. 1981-82: -2.9%
    5. 1953-54: -2.6%

    Furthermore, in the current recession, the M1 money multiplier collapsed by 47%. During the Great Depression, the multiplier fell by 60%. No other post-WW II recession saw the money multiplier plunge by anything close to what happened during the current recession. Had the Fed not stepped in with collosal monetary stimulus, the money supply would have crashed and the economy almost certainly would have fallen into the kind of debt-deflation spiral that was at the heart of the Great Depression.
    Glad you showed up. You make economics look so easy with your spot on explanations, but of course it takes expertise and experience which clearly you have. Thanks for shedding light on reality, as usual.


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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    It should be noted that had the Bush Administration not kept signficant expenditures off-budget, the deficit would have been substantially higher.
    Like... what?
    The CBO revenue/spending numbers include ALL spending, on and off budget.

    For example, during President Bush's last year in office, gross public debt rose by just over $1 trillion.
    FY008 revenue: $2524.3B
    FY2008 spending:$2982.9B
    Deficit: $458.5B

    Never mind that Bush isn't President, and whatever Bush did, it doesnt mitigate the severtity of the current situation.

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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    Like... what?
    The CBO revenue/spending numbers include ALL spending, on and off budget.
    When I refer to the Bush Administration, I am referring to OMB. For starters, OMB kept the costs associated with the war in Iraq off-budget.

    Changes in gross public debt are a better indicator, they reflect the actual costs of government. Under President Bush and so far under President Obama, there has been a noted increase in gross public debt. The key challenge will be whether the Obama Administration adopts a credible fiscal consolidation plan once the economy is on a sustainable growth path.

    Historic experience and political expediency (particularly with election-related dynamics) suggest that such a plan is probably not very likely. That no meaningful efforts have been made to address the nation's mandatory spending imbalances since the Reagan-era Greenspan Commission is quite revealing as to the approach typically pursued by Administrations--Democratic and Republican. The recent Budget-related legislation that exempts increases in physician payments or renewal of the 2001 and 2003 tax reductions from requiring offsetting spending cuts/tax hikes also suggests that Congress is inclined to refrain from making the tough choices that would be required for a credible fiscal consolidation effort. Time will tell, but if I had to speculate, prospects for a credible fiscal consolidation plan do not look good for the near-term and probably beyond.

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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by Goobieman View Post
    FY008 revenue: $2524.3B
    FY2008 spending:$2982.9B
    Deficit: $458.5B
    Total Public debt at start of FY2008 (1 Oct 2007): 9,007,653,372,262.48
    Total Public debt at end of FY2008 (30 Sep 2008): 10,024,724,896,912.49

    Increase in total Public debt in FY 2008: $1,017,071,524,650.01

    $962,172,496,555.86 is the real federal deficit for 2008.

    Total Public debt at start of FY2009 (1 Oct 2008): 10,024,724,896,912.49
    Total Public debt as of today (11 Aug 2009): 11,666,485,985,007.89

    Increase in total public debt to date in FY 2009: $1,641,761,088,095.4


    Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
    Last edited by celticlord; 08-13-09 at 01:11 PM.

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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by donsutherland1 View Post
    When I refer to the Bush Administration, I am referring to OMB. For starters, OMB kept the costs associated with the war in Iraq off-budget.
    Well, OK, but the revenue/outlay figures from the CBO include all on and off budget spending, and so the deficit figures posted by the CBO are accurate.

    The key challenge will be whether the Obama Administration adopts a credible fiscal consolidation plan once the economy is on a sustainable growth path.
    My bet, like yours: Nope.

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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Total Public debt at start of FY2008 (1 Oct 2007): 9,062,552,400,356.63
    Total Public debt at end of FY2008 (30 Sep 2008): 10,024,724,896,912.49

    Increase in total Public debt in FY 2008: $962,172,496,555.86
    Yes. The difference is the IOUs given to the 'SocSec trust fund'.

  10. #30
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    Re: Federal deficit higher in July, $1.27T this year

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Total Public debt at start of FY2008 (1 Oct 2007): 9,062,552,400,356.63
    Total Public debt at end of FY2008 (30 Sep 2008): 10,024,724,896,912.49

    Increase in total Public debt in FY 2008: $962,172,496,555.86

    $962,172,496,555.86 is the real federal deficit for 2008.

    Debt to the Penny (Daily History Search Application)
    Sort of! Let's not forget that the deficit is reduced by the fact we borrow excess social security funds and spend them. We have a huge debt payable to ourselves.
    Wow. Am I awesome or what?

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