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Thread: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

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    Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay.

    Economists date the start of the recession to December 2007 -- defining much of Ben Bernanke's term as Federal Reserve chairman -- and a majority in a Wall Street Journal survey agree that the recession is coming to an end.

    FOXNews.com

    Tuesday, August 11, 2009

    Is the recession over? Economists polled by the Wall Street Journal say yes, and they suggest that's a big reason why Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke should stay.

    The Journal reports that the experts are overwhelmingly in favor of President Obama asking Bernanke to stay on for another four-year term when his current term ends Jan. 31. Bernanke has been a key figure in the government's efforts to reverse the country's economic meltdown, a role that has earned him some criticism but also praise for handling of the crisis.

    Economists date the start of the recession to December 2007 -- defining much of Bernanke's term, which started in early 2006 -- and a majority agree that the recession is coming to an end.

    Bernanke "deserves a lot of credit for stabilizing the financial markets," Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein told the Journal.
    Obviously I'm not an economist, so I'm curious as to what you all think of this? Do you think those interviewed by the WSJ are full of it? Do you all believe any of this can be attributed to Obama's policies/appointments?

    You always hear "it happened on his watch, it's his doing." An example that is recent would be the DOJ issues regarding the voter intimidation issue.

    So in this case, if you give any credence to these claims by economists as reported by Fox and the WSJ, do you associate this with President Obama? If not, why? If you don't lend any credence to these claims, please explain why you don't.

    Personally I'm going to have give the nod to the economists on this. I can't prove them wrong so I'll agree I think it's starting to turn around. But I have no idea if Obama's policies had anything to do with this. That said, since he gets credit for things other people do when they screw up, I'll have to wonder if his detractors give him credit for this whether or not he actually had anything to do with it. Seems only fair right?

    Thoughts?
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    I think its full of BS, majority of these economists have been using the Stock Market as a barometer for the economy which creates a false sense of security. They want Bernanke to stay because he is still in print money mode. If the recession is over its not going into recovery mode we are heading into depression mode.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Actually Lerxst, and this may pain you a bit, I'd give the credit to Dubya. The stimulus bill is not at work here. It can't, too little of it has been spent to do anything.

    The first $350 bailout under Bush more or less provided the stabilization for the financial industry. Imagine if Wall Street had collapsed.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    I'll believe it's turning around when companies across the spectrum stop offering deep, ridiculous discounts and we're not shedding a quarter-million jobs a month.

    True, a goodly number of companies have been posting profits now, so that's a good sign. But we'll have to see.

    As for Obama's policies, well, hardly any of the stimulus package has been disbursed, and much of that has been to shore up state budgets, so it's difficult to see how it has had any effect.

    TARP helped in stabilizing the financial sector, but that was in place before Obama took office, so you can't really call it one of his policies.

    But . . . who knows? The economy is such a huge, dynamic, diverse organism that no one can really tell what does what. Respected economists can and will argue tooth and nail over what's responsible for anything. Truth is, no one can really be sure.

    I'd like to think that if things are improving now, it's because of the self-correcting factors of a free market, one which had to adjust to more severe than usual blow.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Actually Lerxst, and this may pain you a bit, I'd give the credit to Dubya. The stimulus bill is not at work here. It can't, too little of it has been spent to do anything.

    The first $350 bailout under Bush more or less provided the stabilization for the financial industry. Imagine if Wall Street had collapsed.
    Interesting theory. I'd like to know more about this. Where can you track that the first $350B actually stabilized the economy. I'm not saying you're wrong, I'm just asking for more information.

    I have no problem giving credit where credit is due.
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by Harshaw View Post
    I'll believe it's turning around when companies across the spectrum stop offering deep, ridiculous discounts and we're not shedding a quarter-million jobs a month.

    True, a goodly number of companies have been posting profits now, so that's a good sign. But we'll have to see.

    As for Obama's policies, well, hardly any of the stimulus package has been disbursed, and much of that has been to shore up state budgets, so it's difficult to see how it has had any effect.

    TARP helped in stabilizing the financial sector, but that was in place before Obama took office, so you can't really call it one of his policies.

    But . . . who knows? The economy is such a huge, dynamic, diverse organism that no one can really tell what does what. Respected economists can and will argue tooth and nail over what's responsible for anything. Truth is, no one can really be sure.

    I'd like to think that if things are improving now, it's because of the self-correcting factors of a free market, one which had to adjust to more severe than usual blow.
    I see what you are saying with regard to TARP. I am also digging on the bolded part of your statement. I hope that you are correct as it really emphasizes the robust quality of our market system to take care of itself (to many degrees).
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    The money George Bush gave to Wall Street is untraceable because it was given quickly and unconditionally. And it couldn't have been the key mechanism in the recovery because our failing banking/credit/insurance/housing/auto industries wouldn't have had enough time to even find viable investments with which to jerry rig a profit, let alone bring it to fruition.

    While only a small portion of the Obama stimulus money has been spent, it has been distributed much more selectively; to affect workers affected by lay offs for example, or to purchase or encourage purchase (through enticements or insurance) bad assets. Buying and continuing to buy the bad assets is the key to rehabilitating the private sector.

    I'd like to think that if things are improving now, it's because of the self-correcting factors of a free market, one which had to adjust to more severe than usual blow.
    The market is self-correcting but total freedom would be as much of an impediment as total government control to maintaining that self correction. A free market gets caught in feedback loops; investors are advised by economists not to buy the bad assets from the banks, for example. In this kind of situation, to prevent a prolonged recession, the government either has to buy the bad assets or entice people into buying them by promising reimbursement or assistance toward making the investment viable.
    Last edited by Morality Games; 08-12-09 at 01:19 AM.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    The bailouts were a mess, whatever "well intended" ideals pushed them, were dead the moment "billions" started getting handed out.
    Climate, changes. It takes a particularly uneducated population to buy into the idea that it's their fault climate is changing and further political solutions can fix it.



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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by MrVicchio View Post
    The bailouts were a mess, whatever "well intended" ideals pushed them, were dead the moment "billions" started getting handed out.
    The first bail out wasn't messy, but it was probably pointless. The second one is anything but messy or pointless.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Of course the report is BS.

    Anyone living in Michigan is experiencing something close to outright economic depression, with a 15% unemployment rate.

    Here in Texas, the recession has not been that severe. Unemployment was at 7.5% in June, a 2 full percentage points lower than the national rate.

    Whether the economy is in depression, recession, or recovery depends mightily on where you live and whether or not you still have a job. To declare the recession across the entire nation to be "over" at this juncture simply is not realistic. It's over for some parts of the country; for others it's still getting worse.

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