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Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

stekim said:
Actually, my friend, they ALL do. Unemployment is a lagging indicator. Recessions always start before the unemployment rate rises by any major amount and they always end before the unemployment rate drops by any major amount. Always. Just like the stock market is a forward indicator, unemployment is a backward one.



Well, the Dow at 14,000 is a different story. And people never stopped shopping. They buy less. They trade down. But they never stop. Good economic news always boosts consumer sentiment. That, in turn, boosts spending. That eventually leads to increased GDP and then VIOLA, unemployment drops.
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the spelling is voila, not viola....:2razz:
Yes, unemployment may be a lagging indicator instead of a leading indicator, that only means we have to wait a bit longer to have more evidence that the recession is actually over...

I dabble in old car parts quite a bit, making more than a few bucks on ebay and craigslist selling that kind of stuff.
In the last year, I have sold next to nothing. To clean out my inventory, I have sold stuff for just the cost of shipping, basically giving it away.

People are shopping for the same necessities they always have.
Shopping for non-essentials is way down, even with deep discounts.
 
UtahBill said:
the spelling is voila, not viola....:2razz:
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Indeed it is! Actually, I spell so poorly I'm shocked all my posts aren't filled with misspelled words.

Yes, unemployment may be a lagging indicator instead of a leading indicator, that only means we have to wait a bit longer to have more evidence that the recession is actually over...
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Speaking of another lagging indicator, we will out of the recession before we get the announcement we are out of the recession. GDP has to grow before we know GDP grew.

I dabble in old car parts quite a bit, making more than a few bucks on ebay and craigslist selling that kind of stuff.
In the last year, I have sold next to nothing. To clean out my inventory, I have sold stuff for just the cost of shipping, basically giving it away.
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I'm not surprised. We're in a recession.
 
Harshaw said:
As always, sterling examples of "moderate" thinking.

Seriously, the board might as well just default the "Moderate" and "Centrist" tags to "Liberal" or "Very Liberal."

Which brings me back to the age-old question . . . if being a "Liberal" is a badge of honor, why do so many run from the accolade?
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We're wandering off topic here but I'll answer your question anyway.
I don't run from meaningless political TAGS...I just don't think they are very useful.
I answered the question "moderate" when I signd up becuase I feel that is the most accurate tag for me.

I am:

For the death penalty
Agree with an individual's right to carry concealed firearms, with sensible limitations.
Agree that pro-life taxpayers should not be forced to pay for abortions
Not a big "Bail-out" supporter

I am also:

For a woman's right to choose & agree with Roe vs Wade
Believe real diplomacy is not a sign of weakness
Believe HC should be a RIGHT of all citizens & not be a "For Profit" business opportunity to make money off the sick.(like it is now)
Believe in stem cell research



In other words, I am quite liberal on many issues, conservative on others & therefore defend my TAG as Moderate. I don't really understand the utility of these tags anyway.

How about trying to lump all PEDESTRIANS into some catch-all bag????...Same as Socialist..Communist....Capitalist...etc.......There are shades of gray in this world & to deny that & see everything in ABSOLUTE terms is just a sign of lazy thinking, or perhaps inability of some to think at all. (No one in particular in mind)
 
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Devil505 said:
We're wandering off topic here but I'll answer your question anyway.
I don't run from meaningless political TAGS...I just don't think they are very useful.
I answered the question "moderate" when I signd up becuase I feel that is the most accurate tag for me.

I am:

For the death penalty
Agree with an individual's right to carry concealed firearms, with sensible limitations.
Agree that pro-life taxpayers should not be forced to pay for abortions
Not a big "Bail-out" supporter

I am also:

For a woman's right to choose & agree with Roe vs Wade
Believe real diplomacy is not a sign of weakness
Believe HC should be a RIGHT of all citizens & not be a "For Profit" business opportunity to make money off the sick.(like it is now)
Believe in stem cell research



In other words, I am quite liberal on many issues, conservative on others & therefore defend my TAG as Moderate. I don't really understand the utility of these tags anyway.

How about trying to lump all PEDESTRIANS into some catch-all bag????...Same as Socialist..Communist....Capitalist...etc.......There are shades of gray in this world & to deny that & see everything in ABSOLUTE terms is just a sign of lazy thinking, or perhaps inability of some to think at all. (No one in particular in mind)
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Whatever. You have shown NO moderation in your posts.
 
The stimulus packages either been often paid back or remain unspent. The real effect of the governments efforts is to revive confidence in the economy, which is the crucial driver of production and investment. Unemployment however will lag way behind as business will always seek to reduce its largest cost.

Credit is due to both Bush & Obama for this.
 
apdst said:
The recession isn't over until there's been a full recovery. As long as unemployment is anywhere above 4.5%, nothing has recovered. When people aren't working, there's no cash flow. If there's no cash flow, there's no recovery. IMO, we've only seen the beginning. This winter is going to bad.
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I have to disagree with the bolded part; when I was studying economics in college, we used to believe that the natural rate of unemployment was around 6% I believe.

Anything at or below this figure is not too bad. 4.5% is almost an anomaly for a national rate; in my educated opinion. :2wave:
 
stekim said:
The GM bailout was not the stimulus, either. In case that escaped your attention. Further, Jim Cramer isn't Obama or the Treasury secretary or the FED Chairman. So, in other words, your post could not any further off topic than a post about cooking.
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LOL @ Jim Kramer; what a nut job that guy is. I cannot fathom anyone who take any of his rantings serious.
 
creation said:
The stimulus packages either been often paid back or remain unspent. The real effect of the governments efforts is to revive confidence in the economy, which is the crucial driver of production and investment. Unemployment however will lag way behind as business will always seek to reduce its largest cost.

Credit is due to both Bush & Obama for this.
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What are you talking about? The stimulus isn't getting paid back by anyone.
 
Devil505 said:
Ultimately it's always the same ridiculous, partisan refrain wafting up form the right-wing gutter :

Bush & the Repubs deserve no blame for any of their vast array of failures & Obama & the Dems deserve no praise for any of their successes. (The only one's who don't buy that argument are the vast majority of American voters....but who cares about THEM anyway?....Certainly not the Republican party.)
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But of course, that is not what is happening in this thread is it? :spin:
 
Devil505 said:
Ultimately it's always the same ridiculous, partisan refrain wafting up form the right-wing gutter :

Bush & the Repubs deserve no blame for any of their vast array of failures & Obama & the Dems deserve no praise for any of their successes. (The only one's who don't buy that argument are the vast majority of American voters....but who cares about THEM anyway?....Certainly not the Republican party.)
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Oh, yeah -- YOU'VE got the moral authority to be pontificating on this. Riiiight.
 
When economists talk about the recession being over, they're talking about economic indicators getting better. They don't mean that quality of life is going to start increasing again. We're not out of the woods until the government lets us decide what we want instead of deciding for us.
 
phattonez said:
When economists talk about the recession being over, they're talking about economic indicators getting better. They don't mean that quality of life is going to start increasing again. We're not out of the woods until the government lets us decide what we want instead of deciding for us.
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& I'm sure we can look for an honest approval of Obama if it's warranted in the future from you, eh? (will that be when the place I call home freezes over??):lol:
 
Devil505 said:
& I'm sure we can look for an honest approval of Obama if it's warranted in the future from you, eh? (will that be when the place I call home freezes over??):lol:
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If he keeps acting like he does then he'll never warrant it. The things that he is attempting are diametrically opposed to my ideology.
 
Truth Detector said:
I have to disagree with the bolded part; when I was studying economics in college, we used to believe that the natural rate of unemployment was around 6% I believe.

Anything at or below this figure is not too bad. 4.5% is almost an anomaly for a national rate; in my educated opinion. :2wave:
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My point is, if the economy can be considered, "recovered", unemployment has to go back to the percentage it was at at it's beginning. The 4.5% neighborhood is the new standard to be met by the government, so as to claim they fixed the economy. Just my common sense opinion.
 
apdst said:
My point is, if the economy can be considered, "recovered", unemployment has to go back to the percentage it was at at it's beginning. The 4.5% neighborhood is the new standard to be met by the government, so as to claim they fixed the economy. Just my common sense opinion.
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Then you're setting the bar to an unreasonable standard; but hey, you have your opinion and I am right....Ooooops, I meant to type I have mine. ;)
 
Truth Detector said:
Then you're setting the bar to an unreasonable standard; but hey, you have your opinion and I am right....Ooooops, I meant to type I have mine. ;)
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Obviously, it's not an unreasonable standard, since the unemployment rate hovered in that range for quite a few years. I know I'm right, you don't have to tell me :2razz:
 
apdst said:
Obviously, it's not an unreasonable standard, since the unemployment rate hovered in that range for quite a few years. I know I'm right, you don't have to tell me :2razz:
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Yes Apdst, but we must all ask ourselves, is it a reasonable expectation to achieve that rate which was under Republican stewardship and the Bush administration seeing that the Liberals claim he was such a moron. :mrgreen:
 
stekim said:
What are you talking about? The stimulus isn't getting paid back by anyone.
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Fair enough, perhaps I should have said the bailouts instead. Some of these have indeed been paid back.
 
I just posted this article over in the Blogs section, but here is the direct link:


The GOP's Misplaced Rage
Leading conservative economist Bruce Bartlett writes that the Obama-hating town-hall mobs have it wrong—the person they should be angry with left the White House seven months ago.
 
sam_w said:
I just posted this article over in the Blogs section, but here is the direct link:


The GOP's Misplaced Rage
Leading conservative economist Bruce Bartlett writes that the Obama-hating town-hall mobs have it wrong—the person they should be angry with left the White House seven months ago.
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Oh yeah, Obama has done absolutely nothing to exacerbate the recession right?

Believe me, I didn't like Bush's economic policies any more than I like Obama's, but criticizing Bush right now doesn't do any good. Obama's running the ship and he could fix it if he would stop trying to fix it.
 
sam_w said:
I just posted this article over in the Blogs section, but here is the direct link:


The GOP's Misplaced Rage
Leading conservative economist Bruce Bartlett writes that the Obama-hating town-hall mobs have it wrong—the person they should be angry with left the White House seven months ago.
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I guess that puts the lie to most of the anti-Obama right-wing hate BS that the media loves to show because it sells soap!
Personally, I think Obama is a very decent, uplifting man & can't imagine why he is so hated by the far rights wackos????
What could it possibly be?????;)
 
Devil505 said:
I guess that puts the lie to most of the anti-Obama right-wing hate BS that the media loves to show because it sells soap!
Personally, I think Obama is a very decent, uplifting man & can't imagine why he is so hated by the far rights wackos????
What could it possibly be?????;)
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Couldn't just be that I hate his economic policies. Oh no. I must just hate that man because I'm a racist or something. No decent person could disagree with him. No way.
 
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