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Thread: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Following on that analogy, going to the doctor every time you have a touch of flu over time weakens the immune system, resulting in more trips to the doctor. Sometimes the best medicine is to let nature take its course. In the case of the flu, that means feeling like crap for a week. In the case of a recession, it means people having less money and less work for a few months to a year.
    Even if you assumed the "treatment" would work, you were essentially trading $1.0 trillion for a few extra months of recovery. It's hardly worth the effort. The economy is slowly getting better and will come out on the other side. That would have been the case without the $1.0 trillion.

    For all the apocalyptos who talked about the end of the financial system last fall, one thing bears remembering--there is no historical evidence to support their scenario of a banking götterdämmerung.
    Well, we're dealing with two separate matters. The "bailout" and the stimulus package are not two peas in a pod. I work in the bowels of the finance industry (although not as an economist anymore. Yes, companies actually hire those), so I was a bit closer to the bomb than most. But like I said, it's two different issues. Although I'm happy to debate the bailout.

    uating the choice to apply stimulus vs doing nothing, we have to ask the question: what if those "worst case" scenarios were wrong?
    The stimulus was not about financial armageddon. That was the bailout. The stimulus was about getting out of the muck caused by the financial crisis. The problem is, it just was not needed. As for the "worst case" scenarios regarding the financial system: They were not wrong. At least not in terms of the worst case or or something slightly less than that being a realistic and somewhat likely scenario.
    Last edited by stekim; 08-12-09 at 04:43 PM.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Do you take cover when a tornado is predicted, or just assume that they may be wrong and act later? Potential emergencies are dealt with as if they will occur. If you take the position that the bottom may not fall out, and do nothing, there is nothing to save your ass if the bottom falls out.
    Tornado watch == potential crisis.
    Tornado warning == real crisis.

    You don't run to the cellar when there's a tornado watch, but when there's a tornado warning--the difference being that the latter means the funnel cloud is real and approaching real fast.

    Additionally, if the potential crisis that had everyone in a panic last fall was mountains of toxic debt, then we still have that potential crisis because banks still have those mountains of toxic debt--and Ginnie Mae is doing all it can to build its own mountain of toxic debt. So we've run to the cellar, drunk all our bottled water and used up all our batteries, and have to go back topside.....just as the funnel cloud touches down and starts heading towards the house.

    Doesn't strike me as effective crisis response.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Do you take cover when a tornado is predicted, or just assume that they may be wrong and act later? Potential emergencies are dealt with as if they will occur. If you take the position that the bottom may not fall out, and do nothing, there is nothing to save your ass if the bottom falls out.
    The point was that tornado couldn't be predicted because the only experience of the nature which had been known to the time of the prediction did not observe any occurence of tornados. The prediction that something can happen which has never happened before is... it ...is... celticlord should help to find a German expression...it is... it is not germane to basic logic.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Anyone living in Michigan is experiencing something close to outright economic depression, with a 15% unemployment rate.
    That unemployment rate is most likely well over 20% when you include people that stopped looking for work....I've read that the total US unemployment rate is actually close to 16% when this standard is applied.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by justone View Post
    You clearly define yourself as an Obama supporter.
    1. You are engaging in a disorderly conduct. You shouldn't quote a whole post and not to address anything said in the post, but just to define yourself as an Obama supporter.
    2. I don't attack Don, I submit my arguments. I exactly bold his statements and submit my arguments against.

    3. I do not single out Obama, obviously Bush hated by you is specifically put in the 1st place.

    4. I do not define Obama as a socialist, for 2 simple reasons, - 1.because I do not define what is socialist 2. Don knows that I stated many times that such definitions were meaningless.

    If you gather that Obama fits your definition of a socialist be so, but don't forget that Don calls it state capitalism, other call it national socialism, others call it fascism, other call it the right thing to do. For me it does not matter how you call it, but only the effect it produces matters.

    5. When the conservatives did have their chance, - when the last two years of liberal Bush was pushed around by the Democratic majority? You are clearly deceptive.


    As you have submitted at least 5 fallacies, deceptions and false statements in 3 sentences and have addressed no points made by me you are proven to be an Obama supporter. Did you say you were not biased? Can you repeat, please?




    Obama supporters are such an entertainment.

    You are creating the fallacies out of thin air. First of all, I am not an Obama supporter, I am a common sense supporter. If tragedy can be avoided, then I am all aboard. By the way, what facts did you present in your entire post? I saw assertions, but no links or articles for reference.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Tornado watch == potential crisis.
    Tornado warning == real crisis.

    You don't run to the cellar when there's a tornado watch, but when there's a tornado warning--the difference being that the latter means the funnel cloud is real and approaching real fast.

    Additionally, if the potential crisis that had everyone in a panic last fall was mountains of toxic debt, then we still have that potential crisis because banks still have those mountains of toxic debt--and Ginnie Mae is doing all it can to build its own mountain of toxic debt. So we've run to the cellar, drunk all our bottled water and used up all our batteries, and have to go back topside.....just as the funnel cloud touches down and starts heading towards the house.

    Doesn't strike me as effective crisis response.
    You may have gone a little too technical there buddy, but I get your point. What I am saying though, is that all in all you may be right and the market would have indeed corrected itself without stimulus and more public debt. However, if jobs are saved because the government invested enough to prop companies up long enough to avoid closing their doors forever, then crisis avoided as best as can be. This is not an isolated economy anymore, and with most manufacturing jobs going abroad anyway, markets like Detroit are going to suffer in economic booms.

    I digress. Ultimately, Bush and Obama reacted to a forcast of a potential second depression by trying to knock the edge off. If it all goes to nothing in the end, then we live and learn and avoid the same mistakes again. If the market is saved and future revenues take care of future debt, then we will have come out in the plus.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Ultimately, Bush and Obama reacted to a forcast of a potential second depression by trying to knock the edge off. If it all goes to nothing in the end, then we live and learn and avoid the same mistakes again. If the market is saved and future revenues take care of future debt, then we will have come out in the plus.
    The stimulus was not meant to keep us from the next great depression. It was designed to kick start the economy and get it out of the deep recession. That's not the same thing at all. And even assuming it did that (and I don't care either way) it wasn't worth what we spent. The price was simply too steep.
    Last edited by stekim; 08-12-09 at 05:38 PM.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
    Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay.

    Economists date the start of the recession to December 2007 -- defining much of Ben Bernanke's term as Federal Reserve chairman -- and a majority in a Wall Street Journal survey agree that the recession is coming to an end.

    FOXNews.com

    Tuesday, August 11, 2009



    Obviously I'm not an economist, so I'm curious as to what you all think of this? Do you think those interviewed by the WSJ are full of it? Do you all believe any of this can be attributed to Obama's policies/appointments?

    You always hear "it happened on his watch, it's his doing." An example that is recent would be the DOJ issues regarding the voter intimidation issue.

    So in this case, if you give any credence to these claims by economists as reported by Fox and the WSJ, do you associate this with President Obama? If not, why? If you don't lend any credence to these claims, please explain why you don't.

    Personally I'm going to have give the nod to the economists on this. I can't prove them wrong so I'll agree I think it's starting to turn around. But I have no idea if Obama's policies had anything to do with this. That said, since he gets credit for things other people do when they screw up, I'll have to wonder if his detractors give him credit for this whether or not he actually had anything to do with it. Seems only fair right?

    Thoughts?
    The recession isn't over until there's been a full recovery. As long as unemployment is anywhere above 4.5%, nothing has recovered. When people aren't working, there's no cash flow. If there's no cash flow, there's no recovery. IMO, we've only seen the beginning. This winter is going to bad.
    Quote Originally Posted by Top Cat View Post
    At least Bill saved his transgressions for grown women. Not suggesting what he did was OK. But he didn't chase 14 year olds.

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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by apdst View Post
    The recession isn't over until there's been a full recovery. As long as unemployment is anywhere above 4.5%, nothing has recovered. When people aren't working, there's no cash flow. If there's no cash flow, there's no recovery. IMO, we've only seen the beginning. This winter is going to bad.

    Recessions are not defined by the unemployment rate. So your post is meaningless.
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    Re: Report: Economists Say Recession Over, Want Bernanke to Stay

    Quote Originally Posted by stekim View Post
    The stimulus was not meant to keep us from the next great depression. It was designed to kick start the economy and get it out of the deep recession. That's not the same thing at all. And even assuming it did that (and I don't care either way) it wasn't worth what we spent. The price was simply too steep.
    GM Bailout Only Way to Stave Off Great Depression II, Says Cramer

    They say it was.

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