Kurdish-Arab Conflict in Iraq

QARAQOSH, Iraq -- Louis Khno is a city councilman whose city is beyond his control. In his barricaded streets are militiamen -- in baseball caps and jeans, wielding Kalashnikov rifles, with the safeties switched off. They answer to someone else. Leaders of his police force give their loyalty to their ethnic brethren -- be they Kurd or Arab. Clergy in the town pledge themselves to the former. Khno and his colleagues to the latter.

Khno called the town "the line of engagement," one stop along an amorphous frontier in northern Iraq shaped by contested history, geography and authority. Dividing the Kurdish autonomous region from the rest of the country, that frontier represents the most combustible fault line in Iraq today, where Arab and Kurd forces may have come to blows last month along hills of harvested wheat. Kurdish officials suggest that another confrontation is inevitable, with halfhearted negotiations already stalled, and U.S. officials acknowledge that only their intervention has prevented bloodshed.

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"The Kurds are most dangerous because they live among us as Iraqi citizens," declared Raad al-Alwani, a blunt-speaking sheik in Ramadi whose fondness for scotch competes with his affection for two $20,000 falcons tethered in his front yard. "They should remember that someday there will be a strong government in Baghdad again."

"In the old days, one policeman would have kicked all the Kurds out," added his cousin, Khalid Abdullah al-Fahad, dragging on a cigarette and sipping tea.

Another cousin, Skander Hussein Mohammed, chimed in.

"Our children will kick them out if we can't," he vowed.

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"We have an order from the state," said Ghadeer Salem, one of the commanders.

Baghdad? he was asked.

"No," he replied. "Kurdistan."

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Tubub said:

So even though political reconciliation between Shi'ites and Sunnis seems to be becoming a reality, the situation with the Kurds and Christians and their semi-autonomous state operating within a strong central Iraqi government, is much more tenuous.

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sam_w said:

I would strongly disagree that the situation has improved between Sunnis and Shi'ites, or any group for that matter.

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The alliance and allegiance of tribal leaders, both Sunni and Shi‘a throughout Iraq, is tenuous but remarkably effective at reducing violence. Although it remains to be seen whether these tribal militias can be successfully converted to state-run security forces or a civilian sector job force, the hard earned lessons from both sides on how to form an alliance to reduce violence and root out destabilizing extremists certainly merit closer examination.

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Prime Minister Maliki’s reconciliation plan seeks to reduce insurgent attacks through political dialogue, confidence-building measures, and limited amnesty for “lesser offenses,” which could include minor acts of sabotage or participating in Saddam Hussein’s Baath Party.

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Political reconciliation is not something that will happen over night. There is an assumption (from both sides of the aisle) that all that needs to happen for long lasting peace is for Iraqis to be locked into a room (or an airport hanger ala Dayton) and work out their various issues and presto: peace. To some extent locking everyone in the room and reaching broad agreement is a good start. But the details of such a catch-all agreement have to be filled in and the agreement itself has to be implemented. The problem is that when you unlock the door and let those political leaders return home, they have to be able to sell the agreement that was just signed. If the appetite for reconciliation among their supporters is not there, then the agreement - and therefore efforts to reconcile - will likely collapse. After all it is pretty hard to kiss and make up with the people who may have killed someone in your family. This is why these types of conflict are fairly intractable. In Bosnia the Dayton agreement stuck and was ultimately successful not because Serbs, Croats, and Bosniaks loved it, but because we then proceeded to occupy the country until it became accepted. We can't do that now.

3. In Iraq, political reconciliation will have to be largely self-reinforcing, as it is in Northern Ireland. Peace in Iraq will require gradually building trust and confidence across sectarian lines at all level. There is no military solution to building trust. Less violence helps, but even if people feel more secure or safe in their neighborhoods that does not mean that they will have any more trust in the intentions of their Sunni or Shia neighbors or politicians. Addressing this takes a long long long time and lots and lots of talks between political leaders and the process set up with Helsinki is an important first step. This process has to ramp up as troops begin to withdrawal. Additionally, part of a withdrawal strategy has to attempt to get the countries in the region to play a constructive role in supporting political reconciliation. The panelists noted that in Northern Ireland an essential step was the improvement in relations between The British and Irish governments. Similarly, the Annapolis process is an effort to get the entire region to work toward resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. No long term stability can occur in Iraq without broad based support of its neighbors. This means for long term peace the most powerful country in Iraq - Iran - must play a constructive role.

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Sam_w said:

The military prepared an estimation prior to the war that was ignored that specifically stated what is in fact happening now. Parties are not formed by any ideology, but all together through the prism of religious/ethnic sect.

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Iraqis apparently looked past sectarianism and tribal concerns for candidates who could deliver. Voters inKarbala, a central-Iraq province that contains the holy city of the same name, bucked the pro-Maliki trend, relegating the Maliki list to third place. They instead elected the slate led by Yusuf Magid al-Haboobi, reputedly a former Baathist. Haboobi has little renown nationally, but is known as an effective mayor of small towns in the area. The current provincial government, meanwhile, is in Dawa hands and is accused of incompetence and corruption. The conclusion: a record of ability to provide basic services trumped party labels.

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This is extraordinary for Iraq," says the Western adviser. "They're setting a new paradigm and have turned some huge corners. This confirms that the war ended in December and Iraq's new era began the first of January, and that it is happily charting a new democratic course." For Dr. Tahseen Sheikhly, spokesman for the Baghdad security plan, the fact that no party or coalition won by huge numbers—the highest percentage the Maliki alliance won was 38 percent, in Baghdad—suggests no one party will dominate the provincial councils. "Power will be balanced," he tells NEWSWEEK.

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sam_w said:

Secular Sunnis are not embracing Shi'ite secularists, nor have Kurdish Socialists, secularists, etc.. gained any traction with other groups. We may leave in 2011 only to see full scale civil war in 2015 similar to Lebanon or Yugoslavia.

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Sam_w said:

As for Christians, they have fled in masse and at the point there is no indication of any return in the future.

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Sam_w said:

What we are doing is crossing our fingers, hoping to get the hell out as soon as possible, only so that WHEN, not IF, tensions flare we can remain blameless.

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Coming to agreements on contentious issues is essential to a unified Iraq and its stability in the future as US forces increasingly turn responsibility for security over to the Iraqis, Obama said.

"Iraq will be more secure and more successful if there is a place for all Iraqi citizens to thrive, including all of Iraq's ethnic and religious groups," Obama said.

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But Mr Biden's visit was also an attempt to foster reconciliation between the various ethnic and religious groups in Iraq, in preparation for the full-scale departure of American troops by 2011.

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Iraqi Prime Minister Maliki, a Shiite, launched his initiative of reconciliation shortly after he formed his cabinet in May 2006, but he has been criticized for failing to do enough to make use of security gains to achieve progress in overcoming differences between Shiites, Sunnis, Kurds and other factions.

Biden met with Maliki on Friday and warned him that although the US maintaining about 130,000 troops in Iraq, the time is running out and he (Maliki) has to move faster on national reconciliation efforts as the deadline for the departure of US combat troops is approaching.

After hours of closed-door meetings Friday, Biden made it clear to Iraqi leaders that his country would be unlikely to remain engaged in Iraq if the country reverted to sectarian violence, urging the Iraqis to rapidly make use of the political process to resolve their remaining differences.

Nevertheless, Biden told Iraqi leaders that he and US President Barack Obama are standing ready to help the political process in Iraq.

"The United States will continue to support the government of national unity and assist Iraq in the United Nations to get out of Chapter VII," Biden said, referring to UN sanctions imposed during Saddam Hussein's regime which was toppled in the 2003 invasion.

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Sam_w said:

This is in no way a suggestion that we should not leave, in fact we should just leave now. We can simply not fix the history of state creation done decades ago that was flawed to begin with. Iraq, much like any other nation there is not the natural outgrowth of nation state evolution.

We can not stay, but should anticipate a return as a very real possibility.

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OxymoronP said:

We should have just installed a Kurdish Goverment and have them rule Iraq.

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Tubub said:

That's Paul Bremer's thinking. Not the right way of looking at it... Democracy is about reconciliation and coercion, not subjegation.

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chevydriver1123 said:

Didnt the Kurds want to be a separate state anyway? This might just be the excuse they need.

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OxymoronP said:

Reconciliation is not very popular in that area.

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chevydriver1123 said:

Didnt the Kurds want to be a separate state anyway? This might just be the excuse they need.

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Tubub said:

Read the article. The Kurds have a semi-autonomous region and the question now is whether to allow them to keep that region... The Kurds would never be granted completely autonomy, Turkey has already said that if that happened, they would intervene.

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