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Thread: Tories beat Labour in by-election

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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by galenrox View Post
    Granted, I don't follow British politics particularly closely, but even before the expenses scandal many seemed to treat it as a foregone conclusion that the torries would be taking over the majority in the next election. Maybe I was mistaken, but didn't the expenses scandal also include quite a few torries and LDPs as well?
    They were indeed.One Torry mp claimed expenses for fixing his moot so thats not done wonders for their popular appeal, but its worth bearing in mind that.

    In many cases [such as the Local/European elections earlyer this year] its not so much about the Tory vote going up as the Labour vote going down. Alot of Labour supporters [my family included] would never dream of voting tory so when they become disillusioned with Labour they stay at home or vote third party.Im not sure if this is the case in this election* but its worth bearing in mind that.

    [A]Labour has been held responsible for the crisis as they were in charge. The "speaker of the house" who's supossed to stop this sort of thing was a Labour MP

    [B]I think in some ways the expenses scandal was the straw that broke the camels back. Labour has been in power since 1997 so they,ve managed to pick up alot of baggage on the way.

    *Edit: The concervative vote only went up by 6.3% whereas the Labour vote went down by 26.7%
    Last edited by Red_Dave; 07-24-09 at 05:42 PM.

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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Laila View Post
    BBC NEWS | UK | UK Politics | Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Brown will not be happy.
    Norwich has been in Labour hands for a decade
    Laila, what is a "by-election" as opposed to a regular general election, or is there a difference at all?

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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Tase Me Bro View Post
    Laila, what is a "by-election" as opposed to a regular general election, or is there a difference at all?
    Its what you would call a special election

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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Don't Tase Me Bro View Post
    Laila, what is a "by-election" as opposed to a regular general election, or is there a difference at all?
    A by election is a special sort of election.
    So your equivalent would be before the general election one of your Senates or House of Representatives suddenly resigns or dies or becomes unable to continue holding that position of power (corruption etc.) a election would need to be called to find a replacement for that constituent until the general election when the whole country votes.

    By elections are special because they are judged and if it hurts the current leader in the house, then it reflects the doom and gloom.
    More dangerously, if Labour loses Glasgow by election (sparked by the resignation of Speaker Martin) then Labour may as well hang themselves as Scotland is their heartlands - It would be similar to Republicans losing support in the South
    Last edited by Laila; 07-25-09 at 05:37 AM.


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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by PeteEU View Post
    But when it comes to a national election the question is if the labour supporters will turn out or not, and if they do will they risk 4 years of a conservative government by "protest" voting or not turning out.. time will tell.
    Cameron doesn't need to screw up anything. It is in the bag.
    He is opposition, he gets a fresh slate compared to Brown who headed up our economy for 10 years.

    Labour voters will stay at home or go and vote for a minor party, what has been found out by the analyst is that voters have just stopped listening to Labour and believing what they say and their attacks of 'Cameron = massive cuts in spending, evil right wingers who will cut everything and do nothing' has no impact whatsoever.

    I'm pretty much predicting Cameron win next year, everyone in the country knows it. The real interesting question is how big will his majority be in the HOC.
    Last edited by Laila; 07-25-09 at 05:51 AM.


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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by galenrox View Post
    Yeah, I think I remember seeing that LDP's numbers had gone up more than the conservatives', but it seemed that even without the expense scandal David Cameron was going to walk into No. 10.
    The expenses scandal in Britain was broken exclusively by one newspaper; the Daily Telegraph. This paper is a respectable right of center broadsheet, but undoubtedly has a conservative bias, it even gets nicknamed the Torygraph. Although all parties were targeted the focus was on the government. This was despite many of the most outrageous abuses coming from the Conservatives - fixing a moat, building a duck house, etc.

    The MP who was deselected for the next election in Norwich and subsequently stood down was actually one Labour's worst offenders. He sold his second home in London (an entitlement for non-London MP's) for half its market value to his daughter.

    He was quite popular in Norwich however, showing nicely how people can love their local representative whilst hating the overall body of which they are a part. This led to Labour voters staying at home on election day as the below graph should demonstrate:



    It is a good victory for the Conservatives but there are significant extenuating circumstances for Labour.
    We all live under the same sky, but we don't all have the same horizon

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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Slainte View Post

    It is a good victory for the Conservatives but there are significant extenuating circumstances for Labour.
    I just realised something.
    The chances are Thatcher will die under a Conservative Govt. rather than a Labour one. I wonder if they would dare to give her a state funeral. Blair and Brown both shelved it.


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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Laila View Post
    I just realised something.
    The chances are Thatcher will die under a Conservative Govt. rather than a Labour one. I wonder if they would dare to give her a state funeral. Blair and Brown both shelved it.
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xmmomV-ax-s"]YouTube - Frankie Boyle on Thatcher's Funeral[/ame]

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    We all live under the same sky, but we don't all have the same horizon

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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election



    Bigger turnout indeed.

    Love MTW and Frankie. He is my favourite

    Edit: Its interesting to note how Thatcher is still very divisive even to this day
    Last edited by Laila; 07-25-09 at 06:47 AM.


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    Re: Tories beat Labour in by-election

    Quote Originally Posted by Slainte View Post
    The expenses scandal in Britain was broken exclusively by one newspaper; the Daily Telegraph. This paper is a respectable right of center broadsheet, but undoubtedly has a conservative bias, it even gets nicknamed the Torygraph. Although all parties were targeted the focus was on the government. This was despite many of the most outrageous abuses coming from the Conservatives - fixing a moat, building a duck house, etc.

    The MP who was deselected for the next election in Norwich and subsequently stood down was actually one Labour's worst offenders. He sold his second home in London (an entitlement for non-London MP's) for half its market value to his daughter.

    He was quite popular in Norwich however, showing nicely how people can love their local representative whilst hating the overall body of which they are a part. This led to Labour voters staying at home on election day as the below graph should demonstrate:



    It is a good victory for the Conservatives but there are significant extenuating circumstances for Labour.
    WOW did not realize that the labour turnout was that bad.. just proves my point about this seat. Heck even the Conservatives went back.. if anyone won anything then it has to be the smaller parties that made considerable gains (most likely labour protest votes). But even with those gains (protest votes), the lower labour turn was so significant that the torries just had to get half the amount of votes from the previous election and they would win... quite a slap in the face of the labour bigwigs.
    PeteEU

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