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Thread: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Actually...

    From the graph, it looks like Obama's graph predicted that unemployment peaks in Q3 of 2009. We'll see. That's probably only a quarter or two ahead of schedule IMO. My guess is that unemployment doesn't peak until sometime this winter.

    That graph doesn't make much sense though, from an economic perspective. If Obama truly thought that unemployment would peak in Q3, that would mean the economy would have ALREADY been recovering when his team made the graph, since unemployment is a lagging indicator. This seems more like political spin than an accurate economic analysis.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 07-16-09 at 01:26 AM.
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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    From the graph, it looks like Obama's graph predicted that unemployment peaks in Q3 of 2009. We'll see. That's probably only a quarter or two ahead of schedule IMO. My guess is that unemployment doesn't peak until sometime this winter.

    That graph doesn't make much sense though, from an economic perspective. If Obama truly thought that unemployment would peak in Q3, that would mean the economy would have ALREADY been recovering when his team made the graph, since unemployment is a lagging indicator. This seems more like political spin than an accurate economic analysis.
    Ummm....from the graph, the Messiah was predicting unemployment peaking at 7.8%.

    Currently unemployment is 22% larger than that, at about 9.5%. Who gives a flying u-pick-it what the Messiah' predictions are, he's already totally and most completely wrong. If the unemployment curve actually peaks in the third quarter, so what? It's clear enough that the Messiah and Acolytes don't have the faintest clue what they're doing.

    Also, given the current trends, if the unemployment did reach a peak in the third quarter, it's going to hit what, 11%? 12%? When was the last time the US saw those kinds of numbers?...

    ....and then the economy gets nuked in 2010, as the Messiah repeats the mistakes of the past and raises taxes across the board, both because he lacked the foresight to make the successful Bush tax cuts permanent and because Crap&Trade is going to put a huge hike in energy costs, and because the Messiah is going to attempt to steal the nation's health care industry using new taxpayer dollars. So, whatever happens in the third quarter of this year, it's gonna be a plateau, not a peak.

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    That graph doesn't make much sense though, from an economic perspective. If Obama truly thought that unemployment would peak in Q3, that would mean the economy would have ALREADY been recovering when his team made the graph, since unemployment is a lagging indicator. This seems more like political spin than an accurate economic analysis.
    http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf

    You're flailing.....badly.

    The original graph (sans dots showing actual unemployment data) was produced by Christina Romer and Jared Bernstein in their January 10, 2009, report titled The Job Impact of The American Recovery And Reinvestment Plan. Dr. Romer, if you recall, is the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers. Bernstein is Chief Economist and Economic Policy Adviser to Vice President Joseph Biden

    The Council of Economic Advisers was created in the Employment Act of 1946 (PL 79-304, enrolled at 15 USC §1021 et seq). 15 USC §1023(c) describes the duties of the Council specifically:
    (c) Duties It shall be the duty and function of the Council—
    (1) to assist and advise the President in the preparation of the Economic Report;

    (2) to gather timely and authoritative information concerning economic developments and economic trends, both current and prospective, to analyze and interpret such information in the light of the policy declared in section 1021 of this title for the purpose of determining whether such developments and trends are interfering, or are likely to interfere, with the achievement of such policy, and to compile and submit to the President studies relating to such developments and trends;

    (3) to appraise the various programs and activities of the Federal Government in the light of the policy declared in section 1021 of this title for the purpose of determining the extent to which such programs and activities are contributing, and the extent to which they are not contributing, to the achievement of such policy, and to make recommendations to the President with respect thereto;

    (4) to develop and recommend to the President national economic policies to foster and promote free competitive enterprise including small and larger business, to avoid economic fluctuations or to diminish the effects thereof, and to maintain full employment, production, and purchasing power;

    (5) to make and furnish such studies, reports thereon, and recommendations with respect to matters of Federal economic policy and legislation as the President may request.
    Nowhere does it state that the Council or its Chair is to provide propaganda and political spin to advance and improve public perception of Presidential policy. Yet you argue that the original graphic, and the associated report, are "political spin."

    The report containing the original graphic is quite emphatic that the stimulus plan proposed by Dear Leader and the Anti-Republicans in Congress would, by 2010 Q4, create roughly 3.6 million jobs. This was the assessment of a professional economist (Dr. Romer, remember, got her PhD in Economics from MIT in 1985) and her associates. This assessment was described by Paul Krugman (himself a professional economist and Nobel Laureate) in his NYT blog as "clear" and "honest".

    In other words, the graphic might be wrong in its estimates, but it unequivocally purports to be a technical assessment of stimulus plans, not a marketing message meant to facilitate their enactment.

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Gee boys and girls didn't the Messiah in Chief Obama say the unemployment rate would top out at 8%? Oh yes I forgot the the Savior may not be as good a suthsayer as he is a liar.
    The rates will continue to climb and increase as the Dims (no spill error) begin their attack on the wealthy who create the jobs. The top 10% of wage earners pay something like 78% of the taxes now. Those at the bottom pay little or nothing. Higher taxes means fewer jobs, but the Dims don't get it. As Cap and Trade takes effect taxes will fall even faster as more jobs are lost and the higher costs are going result in fewer sales and the cycle will never end until smarter people say enough.
    Everything they have planned and or are doing is the wrong thing, and America will not listen to reason because they have become full fledged disciples of the Liar in Chief Obama and operate with glazed over eyes.

    Recession is when your neighbor loses their job.
    Depression is when you lose your Job.
    Recovery is when Obama loses his job.

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarecrow Akhbar View Post
    Ah...Germany...Germany...what happened to Germany...OH YEAH....it's "stimulus" was the construction of a war machine
    Way to fail to recognize the actual point. The stimulus worked. What came next is irrelevant as to whether or not the stimulus worked. How about you stay on the subject for a change?
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    What part of this is a proof of effective economic stimulus?
    How about the low unemployment? Rising per capita GDP? Neither you nor Scarecrow are capable of actually addressing the point. Instead moving into tangents rather than the fact that the stimulus did bring Germany out of its depression. What it did next is irrelevant as to whether or not the stimulus worked.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    There's no way the President of the United States (or anyone else) can accurately predict the peak unemployment rate, with or without this policy. That may have been the political spin he put on it, in order to scare congressmen into voting for it. But the reality is that unemployment is always a lagging indicator.

    Even in January/February, a lot of economists were saying that the recession was likely to hit bottom in summer 2009, but that unemployment would continue to rise until at least the end of the year. And that still seems likely to happen.
    ...........there's no way the president can accurately predict-but he is predicting? Don't suppose there's a problem you have with that-no big surprise..............Puting a political spin (lying), to use scare tactics..............I'm guessing that you're ok with that too? Par for the course...............

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Way to fail to recognize the actual point. The stimulus worked. What came next is irrelevant as to whether or not the stimulus worked. How about you stay on the subject for a change?
    The stimulus was a heroin fix.

    Obama's stimulus was a meth fix.

    Obama is already talking about his next fix.

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    How about the low unemployment? Rising per capita GDP? Neither you nor Scarecrow are capable of actually addressing the point. Instead moving into tangents rather than the fact that the stimulus did bring Germany out of its depression. What it did next is irrelevant as to whether or not the stimulus worked.
    Sure I was.

    I chose instead to address the real issue.

    So where was Germany getting the money to re-build it's war machine? Was it loans, printing presses, or chasing all the jews out of Germany with only the clothes on their backs?

    Gee, maybe we should look VERY carefully at the effects of a Nazi stimulus regime, what do you think, so we can see what really went on.

    What else did Germany do to stimulate their economy?

    Well, it gobbled Austria.

    It gobbled the Sudetenland.

    Do you really want to compare the Nazi's "economic miracle" with the Messiah's?

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    Re: Obama: Unemployment likely to keep ticking up

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarecrow Akhbar View Post

    Do you really want to compare the Nazi's "economic miracle" with the Messiah's?
    You are forgetting that Jewish wealth was confiscated and redistributed in order to fulfill teachings of the Messiah, so such a comparison is not completely off the base.
    Last edited by justone; 07-16-09 at 11:55 PM.

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