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Thread: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

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    G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    BBC NEWS | Europe | G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Speaking on Thursday, French President Nicolas Sarkozy warned that a unilateral Israeli military strike on Iran's nuclear facilities would be an "absolute catastrophe".

    But he reassured Israel that it was "not alone".

    Mr Sarkozy threatened further sanctions against Iran if it failed to respond to US overtures for talks on its nuclear activities.

    Mr Obama said the international community would not wait "indefinitely" for Iran to comply with its demands.

    The joint declaration said the leaders would "take stock" of whether Iran had complied with demands for a freeze on its nuclear activities at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh in the US in September.

    "Between August and September it's for them to decide how they want things to evolve. Pittsburgh is the date," said Mr Sarkozy.
    Once again we have rhetoric instead of action against Iran. Tell me, do you think the G20 meeting will take any real action if Iran has still not put a halt to their nuclear proliferation?

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Once again we have rhetoric instead of action against Iran. Tell me, do you think the G20 meeting will take any real action if Iran has still not put a halt to their nuclear proliferation?
    Europe has little choice but to threaten empty sanctions.

    So long as Russia supplies Western Europe with natural gas and Iran with nuclear technology, Iran is more or less at liberty to ignore sanctions, while the blowback from a military strike hits them close to home.

    Interestingly enough, the more nations assert that Israel should not strike Iran, the more plausible the case for Israel striking Iran becomes.

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Europe has little choice but to threaten empty sanctions.

    So long as Russia supplies Western Europe with natural gas and Iran with nuclear technology, Iran is more or less at liberty to ignore sanctions, while the blowback from a military strike hits them close to home.

    Interestingly enough, the more nations assert that Israel should not strike Iran, the more plausible the case for Israel striking Iran becomes.
    Why is it that you feel it becomes more plausible for Israel to strike?

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Yes, Celticlord, could you help me with the logic flow in your argument. Thanks.

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Why is it that you feel it becomes more plausible for Israel to strike?
    Because there is little other reason for Europe, the US, and the Arab nations to be putting additional distance between themselves and Israel.

    Israel's security situation remains unchanged, and a big part of that security situation is Iran. Europe knows this. Washington knows this.

    Israel has had a doctrine of pre-emption for decades. Europe knows this. Washington knows this.

    Sanctions and diplomacy have failed to contain Iran's nuclear ambitions. This is not a US failure, but a European failure as well. (Interestingly enough, in the recent riots over the contested election, the Islamic Republic reverted to demonizing Iran's traditional adversary the UK moreso than the US.)

    A nuclear Iran is the start of a regional arms race in an already unstable part of the globe. Syria and Egypt especially would pursue nuclear weapons--and Libya likely still has the infrastructure of their nuclear program that presumably they shelved some years back. A nuclear Iran very likely is the catalyst that leads to at least a very violent regional conflict in the Middle East.

    A quick strike on Bushehr would set the nuclear program back several years at a minimum. One Tomahawk cruise missile would do it, but that would leave US fingerprints all over the attack and could itself be destabilizing.

    Europe has scolded Israel over the Palestinian issue--and now they are telling Israel to stand down over Iran. That's either some major chutzpah on Europe's part, or they are getting their plausible deniabilities in ahead of time. An isolated Israel has more reason to strike now rather than wait on problematic diplomacy.

    Essentially its a case of the lady protesting too much. The more the world frets about Israel attacking, the more I tend to suspect that is exactly what the world wants.

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Makes sense. I wonder though, will the world be willing to defend Israel when all hell breaks loose. If such an occurence happens, then Hamas, Hezzbolah, Iran, Syria, and the rest will take aim at Israel.

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Makes sense. I wonder though, will the world be willing to defend Israel when all hell breaks loose. If such an occurence happens, then Hamas, Hezzbolah, Iran, Syria, and the rest will take aim at Israel.
    Hamas and Hezzbolah will undertake a fresh round of rocket attacks, and Netanyahu will send troops back into Gaza and southern Lebanon to take out the rocket sites. Syria will protest, Egypt will ponderously pontificate about Israel being hostile to Muslim nations, Saudi Arabia will proclaim ignorance of Israeli overflight of their territory--and with Iran a pariah nation whose economy is hurting because of a lack of oil revenue (damn that falling spot price! ), coupled with a growing internal civil conflict, their capacity to fund and support Hamas and Hezbollah will be limited.

    Also, a strike at Bushehr by Israel would be a black eye for Ahmadenijad, because it will have been his over the top rhetoric that set the stage. It would be another reason for the clerical leadership in Iran to flex their guardianship muscles and move against Ahamedenijad and Khamenei.

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    I agree with CL, and would take it one step further: I think the western powers are all but counting on Israel making such strikes as either the fallback plan/expected outcome, or are twiddling their thumbs and hoping they will just do it to get the headache off of their agenda.

    Everyone wants to make nice with oil rich nations (or take them over, *cough*Iraq*cough*) but its not like Israel's relations with Iran/any muslim country could get any worse so they have nothing to lose...

    and Israeli strick would mean a whole lot of wringing of hands and admonitions from Europe, a hollow pulbic statement and a lot of "Go-GO GODS CHOSEN" by Jews and Fundie wanna-be-jewish Evangelicals, and a whole lot of nothing else...

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Both of you guys make great arguments. My only point is that regardless if Israel carries out such a strike, rather than the U.S., hatred for the U.S. will still flare and U.S. support for Israel will be viewed as the same as if the U.S. actually performed the strike themselves.

    If Israel is attacked with more fevor than Celti predicts, then the U.S. will have to step in anyway. I can see the logic, but I think it is still a very big gamble.

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    Re: G8 warning on Iran crackdown

    Quote Originally Posted by tlmorg02 View Post
    Both of you guys make great arguments. My only point is that regardless if Israel carries out such a strike, rather than the U.S., hatred for the U.S. will still flare and U.S. support for Israel will be viewed as the same as if the U.S. actually performed the strike themselves.

    If Israel is attacked with more fevor than Celti predicts, then the U.S. will have to step in anyway. I can see the logic, but I think it is still a very big gamble.
    Meh, but whachugonnado?

    They are right, without the teat of the US jewish and Xian communites buying into the whole holy land [even though people were already living there when the Hebrews showed up]/"God's Chosen People get to live by another standard" then Israel would not exist...

    So they have a point.

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