2014 apparently the more likely time frame.
The reactors at Bushehr are likely to be operational this year, and could produce as much as a quarter ton of plutonium every year--enough to produce as many 30 nuclear weapons.Mr. Keith Simpson: To ask the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs what assessment has been made of the progress made in the construction of the heavy water research reactor at Arak in Iran; and if he will make a statement. 
Dr. Howells: International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Dr. Mohammed El Baradei confirmed in his November 2005 report that the Agency had carried out a design information verification visit to Arak and noted that the civil engineering construction of the reactor building was continuing. In declarations to the IAEA, the Iranian government has stated that the facility should be ready for commissioning in 2014. We are not aware of any change to this timescale.
IR-40 is a small reactor which would produce at most enough plutonium for approximately two to three nuclear weapons per year:According to Paul Leventhal of the Nuclear Control Institute, if Iran were to withdraw from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) and renounce the agreement with Russia, the Bushehr reactor could produce a quarter ton of plutonium per year, which Leventhal said was enough for at least 30 atomic bombs. Harmon W. Hubbard raised similar concerns in an April 2003 article titled "Plutonium from Light Water Reactors as Nuclear Weapon Material" published by the Nonproliferation Policy Education Center (NPEC). Another report published by the NPEC in 2004 reiterated the concerns about light water reactors and plutonium production.
IR-40 is a definite concern, but as its operational start date is farther in the future than Bushehr, and is smaller than Bushehr, it is for now a less valuable target than Bushehr.The amount of plutonium a 40MW(th) reactor could produce each year would depend on the reactor's "capacity factor," the percentage of time that they are actually operating. This could range from 60 percent to up to 85 percent. A capacity factor of 60 percent would yield about 9 kilograms each year, while a 90 percent capacity factor would yield 12.5 kilograms of plutonium each year. A single nuclear weapon might require 4 or 5 kilograms of plutonium, so the reactor could produce two or three atomic bombs each year.
Israel will likely find itself with the diplomatic capital to make one limited strike on Iran's facilities. While there are legitimate targets besides Bushehr, it is the most valuable target, and, being near the Persian Gulf, is the most easily reached.
Bushehr is what Israel can take out without starting a war. Any more than that and Iran is at war with somebody.
Last edited by celticlord; 07-10-09 at 09:53 PM.
Don't you think if their god was the only real god, and he was really that powerful, he mighta, y'know, set that area aside for them without having to tell them to slaughter every man woman and child without mercy to get it?
That is of course playing devil's advocate that the Torah is even partially true.
Granted some events of their history were indeed chronicled in it, but whenever you have a class of people and they only are allowed into the "Holy of Holies" and their god tells them to tell the people to X,Y,Z...
Well yeah, I don't really think "religous" claims count in matters of territorial dispute...
Or according to Mormons the Native Americans were a tribe of hebrews and we should start building more illegal settlements in Florida...