"He who does not think himself worth saving from poverty and ignorance by his own efforts, will hardly be thought worth the efforts of anybody else." -- Frederick Douglass, Self-Made Men (1872)
this iran issue must be quite a headache for obama the idealist. to me, the guy still believes he can rehabilitate the rogues in tehran!
How much of a gamble is it to allow Iran to acquire nuclear weapons? How much of a gamble is it to allow an arms race to start in the Middle East? Is that more or less of a gamble than turning a blind eye towards the IAF doing their thing?
Choosing the safe option is not a gamble.
Of course, figuring out which is the safe option is a huge gamble....but that gamble the world takes regardless.
"The darkest places in hell are reserved for those who maintain their neutrality in times of moral crisis."
I'll go one more on CL not only will Israel attack but I can see a very massive all out attack, not only would they go and hit the Nuke Site but I can see them sending there Subs into the Indian Ocean via the Canal then come into the Gulf and attacking the following Military Base's.
Attacks by Sub Launch Cruise Missiles
Bandar Abbas Naval Base
Bushehr Naval Base
Khark Naval Base
This would take out the Iranian Navies Kilo-Class Subs based at both Nushehr and Bandar Abbas along with it's Alvand Class Frigate's.
I can also see Sub based attack's on the following Air Base's Bandar Abbas,Shiraz,Tabriz,Mashhad and Doshah Tappeh. All of these base have both Tactical Air Units and Fighter Units with Bander having the bulk of the Iranian Naval Air Units.
This would be followed by a Air Attack at low level by F-15I from the 69th FSq, 107th FSq with Tactical Air Support from 201st and 253rd FSq with there F-16I and tanker support from 120th Sq. and 103rd Sq. this attack package would take out SAM site's and any Iranian Aircraft that would try to intercept the attack package.
This would be an all out once for all attack to put the Iranian Military out of commission for a very long time. And it would also be seen to the rest of the Arab World as a message don't mess with us because we will destroy you.
As for the Arab Worlds reaction well Syria will keeps it's mouth shut since they(Israel) has already level there Nuke Site, Saudi Arabia will say nothing, Egypt will make a small noise publicly but in private will thank Israel as will most of the Gulf Arab Nations. Europe will turn a blind eye and Russia will not say anything do to the many Trade Deals they have with Israel.
The Countries that will demand UN Actions will be Cuba,Venezuela,Bolivia. China will make some noise but not much do tot he fact the United States will tell them in private shut the hell up.
Iran's military and navy is not a destabilizing force in the Middle East. Iran's nuclear reactor at Bushehr is a destabilizing force in the Middle East. The world will breathe easier when the reactor is no more, but reaching beyond that would push the Arab nations over to Iran's defense.
In order for Israel to strike Bushehr they will need to take out both the Airbase and Naval Base, Sub Based Cruise Missile could take out the Airpower and SAM sites that ring Bushehr. With that said I don't think Israel would stop at Bushehr, I could see them taking out the enrichment plant in Natanz, the Heavy Water facility in Arak, the Uranium Conversion Facility at Esfahan.
Also hitting and taking out Doshah Tappeh Air Base which both the CIA and IAEA suspected to have at least three Yellowcake Facilitys would send a message to Iran and Syria we know what you have and we know were you have them.
However, wanting does not alter the political calculus here. If Israel strikes too much, too hard, and does too much damage to assets not directly tied to the nuclear weapons program, they expose themselves to not just retaliation vis a vis Hamas and Hezbollah, but quite possibly a renewed war with the Arab nations.
What Israel does not want is to put Egypt and Jordan in the position of deciding which nation they hate less, Iran or Israel.
A possible international justification for a limited Israeli air strike on Iran's nuclear program may be what we are seeing develop with all these warnings. It would be reckless to attempt stretching that justification to a larger strike on Iran's military. Right now, the nuclear program is the only facility by which Iran might plausibly project military power into Israel--land troops would have to march across Iraq and Jordan to reach Israel, and Iran does not have the naval forces to support an invasion via the Gulf of Aqaba.
On the otherhand, we could pay some Iraqi militia to carryout attacks for us.