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Thread: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

  1. #11
    Why so serious?

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Who cares? What's the difference between one person controlled by the mullahs, and another? The President of Iran is irrelevant since he doesn't call the shots. This is all just political theater, and the mullahs are the ones writing the script.
    "I believe in a Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the harmony of all that exists, but not in a God who concerns himself with the fate and actions of human beings."

    --Albert Einstein, 1929

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by Moon View Post
    Who cares? What's the difference between one person controlled by the mullahs, and another? The President of Iran is irrelevant since he doesn't call the shots. This is all just political theater, and the mullahs are the ones writing the script.
    The Iranian people seem to care a great deal.

    Of greater concern to the US is whether the mullahs continue to retain a veneer of political legitimacy, or if they will become merely yet another gang of authoritarian oligarchs--who just happen to be on the verge of nuclear weapons.

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    Why so serious?

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    The Iranian people seem to care a great deal.

    If the people controlled the military, that might mean something. Otherwise, it's just another Tienanmen Square.


    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Of greater concern to the US is whether the mullahs continue to retain a veneer of political legitimacy, or if they will become merely yet another gang of authoritarian oligarchs--who just happen to be on the verge of nuclear weapons.
    What do you mean "become"?
    "I believe in a Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the harmony of all that exists, but not in a God who concerns himself with the fate and actions of human beings."

    --Albert Einstein, 1929

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by Moon View Post
    If the people controlled the military, that might mean something. Otherwise, it's just another Tienanmen Square.
    Tehran 1999 was another Tienanmen Square. This is looking more like Romania in 1989--something Ahmadinejad needs to consider (what started out as a few rights blossomed overnight into a complete rebellion).

    Quote Originally Posted by Moon View Post
    What do you mean "become"?
    Exactly that.

    One thing is certain: huge numbers of Iranians turned out to vote, in an election staged by the mullahs. Had Mousavi not been cleared to run, or if the results weren't so questionable (Ahmadinejad presumably won in Mousavi's home town--even Mayor Daley isn't that greedy for votes), the Iranian people likely would have accepted the result.

    If the Iranian people were willing to accept the results of a mullah-staged election, that acceptance confers political legitimacy on the mullahs, just as the removal of that acceptance (which appears to be going on now) strips them of political legitimacy.

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Tehran 1999 was another Tienanmen Square. This is looking more like Romania in 1989--something Ahmadinejad needs to consider (what started out as a few rights blossomed overnight into a complete rebellion).


    Exactly that.

    One thing is certain: huge numbers of Iranians turned out to vote, in an election staged by the mullahs. Had Mousavi not been cleared to run, or if the results weren't so questionable (Ahmadinejad presumably won in Mousavi's home town--even Mayor Daley isn't that greedy for votes), the Iranian people likely would have accepted the result.

    If the Iranian people were willing to accept the results of a mullah-staged election, that acceptance confers political legitimacy on the mullahs, just as the removal of that acceptance (which appears to be going on now) strips them of political legitimacy.
    Then the Iranians were the last ones to realize what the form of their government actually is.
    "I believe in a Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the harmony of all that exists, but not in a God who concerns himself with the fate and actions of human beings."

    --Albert Einstein, 1929

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by Moon View Post
    Then the Iranians were the last ones to realize what the form of their government actually is.
    The people usually are. Which is one reason the realization usually leads to rebellion.

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    The people usually are. Which is one reason the realization usually leads to rebellion.

    Perhaps. We will see.
    "I believe in a Spinoza's God who reveals himself in the harmony of all that exists, but not in a God who concerns himself with the fate and actions of human beings."

    --Albert Einstein, 1929

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    What will be interesting is watching the left contend with the sobering reality that Iran has shown itself to have no compelling interest in negotiations, and the rioting and alleged election irregularities merely drive that point home.

    They'll just blame the USA and everyone but Obama.

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    Quote Originally Posted by Triad View Post
    They'll just blame the USA and everyone but Obama.
    Most likely, and what few shreds of credibility they enjoy today will be gone.

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    Re: US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad

    "US rejects victory claim by Iran's Ahmadinejad"

    The only quotes from the US gov't suggest "doubt" but they hardly reject it. Reserving judgement is very different from rejection. It is as different as atheism vs. agnosticism.

    Although I also would have liked to have seen Mousavi win, given the scale of his victory, the hypothetical fraud would have had to have been on a massive scale, - something I would think very difficult to pull off given the diverse opinions in the population. According to news reports I have heard, pre-election polling showed most of Mousavi's support came from voters under the age of 30. Although I don't know the exact distribution of the Iranian population, I suspect its population distribution is similar to that of other developed countries. In the US the percentage of the population between age 18 and 30 is about 15%-20% of the population at most.

    The voting age is 18 in Iran, so if one extrapolates from US demographics, even if you give Iran a youthful cast and say 20% of the population was 100% behind Mousavi, and 100% of them came out to vote, they still represent a minority. According to news reports, Iran had an all-time record turnout as well, close to 87%, so the value of that small-but-energized voting block would have been substantially reduced.

    It would be useful though, to know how weak or strong Mousavi's support was among the rest of the population, since the youth vote certainly could have won the election for him if his numbers were high enough in other demographics.

    Ahmadinejad certainly acts weasely and attracts plenty of controversy, but I suspect, given the demographics of Mousavi's support and the size of Ahmadinejad's victory, that he may not have had to resort to election fraud to win.

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