Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

Lerxst said:

So who else is there? There has to be opposition candidates that the people are behind who stand for true change. Everything I've read on Mousavi is that he stands for reform, woman's rights, freedom of information, etc. If this is all just lip service then that is fine, but is this opinion or does he have a track record to counter his proclaimed position? I honestly don't know much about this man.

One thing is for certain, somebody needs to be stood up rather quickly in order to take advantage of this opportunity on behalf of the Iranian people.

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If this is a real revolution, the choices can't be between the two sides of the same coin. As long as the religious leaders are pulling the strings, it really doesn't matter who the puppet at the other end is.

Redress said:

I don't follow Iranian politics, so am pretty ignorant. Right now I am just mostly concerned for the poor young people in Iran.

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I did some research on it a year or so ago when I was attempting to school myself up the matter. People were claiming that Iran was a "democracy" and that Ahmajenidad (sp) was elected he was "democratically elected." There is a lot of information out there, but once you really read about Iranian elections you will find that they aren't fair or representative of the will of the people at all.

Redress said:

So you all are saying that the people of Iran had a choice between evil, and evil? Grossly oversimplified, but that is about what you guys are saying?

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Yes.


The man in charge is neither of them..the man in charge is the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Neither of these people would be allowed to run if he didn't say ok.
The entire Iranian political structure is set up so that the Ayatollah dictates and the arms of the government make sure the Ayatollah dictates according to their Islamic beliefs.

Its a Theocratic Dictatorship.

Well I agree with you, but the last thing we want is to eject a theocracy and replace it with a military junta. There has to be someone the Iranian people want in there. They can't simply be leaderless.

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Without some form of organization or leadership this movement is going to be spontaneous, uncoordinated, and prone to failure. However, we cannot determine at this time what that form of organization will take or what leadership will emerge in the coming days/weeks. The reason that I say your question is unanswerable at this time is for that very reason; we have not seen this movement crystallize into an organized, efficient movement with a distinct leadership.

Right now the movement is in its infancy, and the people are becoming radicalized. If this movement does continue and does become revolutionary, we will see it take on a more definite form, and have more definite goals, and out of this maturing we will see leaders arise. This is how revolutions always start in their infancy; they start out as reactive forces, but as the movement matures those participating become radicalized and we see it evolve from a reactive force into a proactive force. We see the demands go from very specific individual demands (such as the recount of an election result) to broader, more profound demands (such as the removal of the Ayatollah). Once this movement matures further we will have a better picture of its general direction, its possible impact and its future leaders. But we (as in, the people outside of Iran) must wait until the movement develops further before we can start such an analysis.

I don't follow Iranian politics, so am pretty ignorant. Right now I am just mostly concerned for the poor young people in Iran.

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This image pretty much sums up how the Iranian electoral system works:



It seems confusing, but if you follow it closely you'll realize that everything comes back to the Supreme Leader and the Guardian Council.

Redress said:

So you all are saying that the people of Iran had a choice between evil, and evil? Grossly oversimplified, but that is about what you guys are saying?

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I can't speak for Khayembii, but Mousavi is a bit more flexible. He would probably effect some changes, but these would basically be only cosmetic in nature and nuance.

Lerxst said:

I did some research on it a year or so ago when I was attempting to school myself up the matter. People were claiming that Iran was a "democracy" and that Ahmajenidad (sp) was elected he was "democratically elected." There is a lot of information out there, but once you really read about Iranian elections you will find that they aren't fair or representative of the will of the people at all.

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So this is a political game, with the innocent paying the price.

Moon said:

If this is a real revolution, the choices can't be between the two sides of the same coin. As long as the religious leaders are pulling the strings, it really doesn't matter who the puppet at the other end is.

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Yes, but Iranians are still predominantly religious people, and they do not suffer a true separation of church and state like we do. Whoever their pick is will be a Muslim first and foremost, and in Islam religion and politics are tied at the hip.

This transcends Mousavi at this point. The 7 demands go far beyond anything Mousavi dreamed of asking for.

So, this isn't any more about Mousavi than it is about Obama.

it's about the Iranian people saying, "we want a real election. we want rights. We want more."

For those who are just starting to pay attention, Michael Totten has done a good job of covering the issues:

Commentary Michael J. Totten

Here is also a good place to start (forget the stupid partisan references to Obama, and bear in mind that this guy understands Iran very well):

Faster, Please! So How’s it Going in Iran?

The Seven Demands:

Demonstrators in Iran distributed seven demands in print yesterday.

1. Dismissal of Khamenei for not being a fair leader
2. Dismissal of Ahmadinejad for his illegal acts
3. Temporary appointment of Ayatollah Montazeri as the Supreme Leader
4. Recognition of Mousavi as the President
5. Forming the Cabinet by Mousavi to prepare for revising the Constitution
6. unconditional and immediate release of all political prisoners
7. Dissolution of all organs of repression, public or secret

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By the way, several hundred thousand copies of this were disseminated.

Lerxst said:

Yes, but Iranians are still predominantly religious people, and they do not suffer a true separation of church and state like we do. Whoever their pick is will be a Muslim first and foremost, and in Islam religion and politics are tied at the hip.

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But there are muslims, and there are MUSLIMS. There are MANY moderate muslims in Iran, and always have been. Perham, who posts here, is one. His mother is heavily involved in women's rights issues in Iran.

Lerxst said:

Yes, but Iranians are still predominantly religious people, and they do not suffer a true separation of church and state like we do. Whoever their pick is will be a Muslim first and foremost, and in Islam religion and politics are tied at the hip.

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I understand that.

This transcends Mousavi at this point. The 7 demands go far beyond anything Mousavi dreamed of asking for.

So, this isn't any more about Mousavi than it is about Obama.

it's about the Iranian people saying, "we want a real election. we want rights. We want more."

For those who are just starting to pay attention, Michael Totten has done a good job of covering the issues:

Commentary Michael J. Totten

Here is also a good place to start (forget the stupid partisan references to Obama, and bear in mind that this guy understands Iran very well):

Faster, Please! So How’s it Going in Iran?

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These demands were obviously put forward by more radical elements within the movement, but it is hard to gauge how much sympathy/support these elements have within the movement as a whole. However, with the way that things have been going today, I have a feeling that this is going to turn very radical very quickly.

It's funny...I don't consider these radical demands.

It's funny...I don't consider these radical demands.

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In terms of beliefs, neither do I, and neither do most Iranians. However, in terms of actually expressing those beliefs in public, they are very radical and a step in the right direction.

Khayembii Communique said:

In terms of beliefs, neither do I, and neither do most Iranians. However, in terms of actually expressing those beliefs in public, they are very radical and a step in the right direction.

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Radical for Iran, but very much in line with most western democracies.

Tashah said:

Khayembii is correct. Mousavi is more polished than Ahmadinejad, but he is part and parcel of the extended dictatorship.

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And Alexander Dubcek was a member of the Communist Party prior to the Velvet Revolution...so what's your point?

The fact is that A) Mousavi is now a symbol of the reform movement, and B) his policies would represent a huge step in the right direction in terms of democratic reform and relations with the West. Of course he isn't a radical...but you guys are forgetting that if he WAS a radical, he never would have been allowed to run for president in the first place! All-or-nothing approaches to democracy are counterproductive. If the Iranian regime collapses in the next couple weeks, it will be because of people who are "part and parcel of the extended dictatorship" such as Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Khatami.

Kandahar said:

And Alexander Dubcek was a member of the Communist Party prior to the Velvet Revolution...so what's your point?

The fact is that A) Mousavi is now a symbol of the reform movement, and B) his policies would represent a huge step in the right direction in terms of democratic reform and relations with the West. Of course he isn't a radical...but you guys are forgetting that if he WAS a radical, he never would have been allowed to run for president in the first place! All-or-nothing approaches to dictatorships are counterproductive. If the Iranian regime collapses in the next couple weeks, it will be because of people who are "part and parcel of the extended dictatorship" such as Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Khatami.

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Excellent post. Thanks for breaking it down so well.

It also will require the participation of reformist mullahs from within Iran's religious hierarchy.

The fact is that A) Mousavi is now a symbol of the reform movement, and B) his policies would represent a huge step in the right direction in terms of democratic reform and relations with the West. Of course he isn't a radical...but you guys are forgetting that if he WAS a radical, he never would have been allowed to run for president in the first place! All-or-nothing approaches to dictatorships are counterproductive. If the Iranian regime collapses in the next couple weeks, it will be because of people who are "part and parcel of the extended dictatorship" such as Mousavi, Rafsanjani, and Khatami.

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If the dictatorship collapses, then Mousavi, Rafsanjani and Khatami will collapse with it.

Khayembii Communique said:

If the dictatorship collapses, then Mousavi, Rafsanjani and Khatami will collapse with it.

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Not necessarily. The 7 demands lay out a process by which order could be maintained.

Don't let your wishful thinking get in the way.

Not necessarily. The 7 demands lay out a process by which order could be maintained.

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The 7 demands are not demands that will be implemented by those in power. If the movement does radicalize to a point where they become revolutionary, they will have moved past those demands.

Khayembii Communique said:

If the dictatorship collapses, then Mousavi, Rafsanjani and Khatami will collapse with it.

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Possibly. Or perhaps they could play an important role in the reform movement, just as Alexander Dubcek did in Czechoslovakia.

Possibly. Or perhaps they could play an important role in the reform movement, just as Alexander Dubcek did in Czechoslovakia.

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They are too closely tied in with the current Iranian regime; they will not break off and call for its destruction.

Khayembii Communique said:

They are too closely tied in with the current Iranian regime; they will not break off and call for its destruction.

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They don't need to call for its destruction. The people of Iran will see to that, or not. The reformers can play a valuable role though. Mousavi is the face of the reform movement. Rafsanjani can make a credible threat to depose Khamenei. Khatami, as a popular ex-president, lends the movement gravitas.

Then after Khamenei is gone, they could play a role in democratizing Iran and improving relations with the West.

If this goes past the 1999/2003 occurances to actual revolt then the "protestors" will be slaughtered and the "world" will do nothing.

Lerxst said:

Yes, but Iranians are still predominantly religious people, and they do not suffer a true separation of church and state like we do. Whoever their pick is will be a Muslim first and foremost, and in Islam religion and politics are tied at the hip.

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That we don't know for sure. When I was in Iran in 1987, I met more secular people than religious. I can't really tell because I never lived there, but that's the impression I got and that's what my Iranian friends tell me.