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Thread: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by Triad View Post
    what?

    Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri is not a "senior Ayatollah" he;s not even in the government.

    He was kicked out by Khomenie in the late 80's for publicly criticizing mass executions and has spent more time under house arrest likely then free.

    I foyu look at his history he can easily be called a n opportunist.

    Not saying this isn't important for the protesters as he does have clout(why he's still breathing)..just saying its not that important or surprising, he's not what the article seems to imply, he has no role in the government and hasn't for 20 or so years.


    Look it up if you don't believe me....
    I did, before I posted, but, here ya go.


    FYI, from Wiki: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri (Persian: حسین علی منتظری), styled His Honourable Eminence, (born in 1922), was one of the leaders of the Islamic Revolution in Iran. He is best known as the one-time designated successor to the revolution's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini who fell out with Khomeini in 1989 over government policies that Montazeri claimed infringed on freedom and denied people's rights. He currently lives in the holy city of Qom, and remains politically influential in Iran, especially upon reformist politics.[1] Montazeri is a senior Islamic scholar and a grand marja (religious authority) of Islam.

    For almost three decades, Hossein Ali Montazeri has been one of the main critics of Islamic Republic's domestic and foreign policy. He has also been an active advocate of civil rights and women's rights in Iran. He is a prolific writer and has authored a number of books and articles.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by Triad View Post
    Sure they do...
    An excellent, well-thought-out rebuttal to my point. You are quickly becoming one of my favorite posters. Quite the pinnacle of intellect, you are.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    He's special.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Please? Can we do without snide? Just for this one thread, I promise!
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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by NDNdancer View Post
    I don't think that we can predict with any certainty how this is going to play out. One of the major problems is that the US has historically been very very wrong about the internal politics in Iran.
    Well yeah... who knows what will happen for sure.

    The Iranian protersters have a much wider base to this protest then they did in 1999 and 2003. AND this time, it's even among the clerics and military. There are lots of reports out there (unconfirmed at this point) about arrests among the elite Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard. One report has 12 arrested, another has 16. There's also tons of reports of the military refusing to fire at the protesters, thus the need for the militia. Again, it's unconfirmed, but it does add up. If that's true, then the power base of the Ayotollah may be crumbling......
    Are you sure they have a wider base or does it just seems that way because of the way the media is framing the story. So far 99.9% of all reports, videos, etc have been form Tehran. Its is the capital but its one city and rather known for "protests" (ie 1999 etc.) usually propelled by students.


    One long standing anti-government Cleric and unconfirmed reports of a few soldiers maybe being arrested along with other claims of unrest that nobody can confirm doesn't mean much. I'm sure you have seen protests against governments before...they all have these stories.

    I hope it is the end..I hope their is a coup or civil war to remove the theocracy..what I see now though isn't ever going to do that.

    IMO this will fizzle out ..BUT if it doesn't then the day the troops move in to put them down is their day of decision. The can either pick up that gun or they best go home.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by Kandahar View Post
    No no no no nooooooo

    That would be the absolute worst thing that we could possibly do. The Iranian regime is looking for a pretext to clobber the protesters, but it can't easily manufacture one without many members of the police and military refusing to obey and/or defecting to join the protesters.

    Furthermore, if the Iranians decide to topple their government it won't be through a prolonged civil war. It will be through some kind of revolution. Whether it's peaceful like Czechoslovakia or bloody like Romania remains to be seen...but in neither case would it do any good to funnel arms to them.

    For one thing, there has been little indication that the protesters would even welcome American involvement. For another thing, we have no way of getting massive stockpiles of weapons to protesters. For another thing, we don't even know who they are. For another thing, if we gave them to any "big name" protest figures to distribute, they would immediately be arrested. For another thing, the timeline of a potential revolution is much shorter than the timeline of our weapons supply chain. By the time the weapons got there, the government would already be overthrown or the protest would be crushed. And finally, if Iran's government DOES manage to survive (which is still more likely than not) we would be much better off if we had not just funded an armed insurrection against it.
    It would not be the worst thing we could do. Not at all. I don't know what you believe is happening here. This nation is in revolt of a government that the majority of the free world has identified as an oppressive, extremist, theocratic dictatorship that supports not only terrorism, but is pursuing nuclear weapons while at the same time proliferating the idea that Israel should or will be wiped off the map.

    Arming this opposition movement would be far from the worst thing we could do. Are they only worth supporting if they can take their country back through peaceful means? Do we lose some political ammunition if these folks aren't getting gunned down with no practical way to fight back?

    I don't know about you, but I want the Guardian Council and Ahmadinejad deposed, I want them struck from power, and if it takes funneling 50,000 assault rifles and 3,000 RPG's to them, well let me help load the trucks.

    This isn't a romantic endeavor by the people of Iran, this is a bloody, violent uprising to three decades of dictatorial oppression. I never said we need to sponsor a "civil war." I said we should support this uprising. Arms and information are what these people need, not just good will and Twitter.
    Quote Originally Posted by talloulou View Post
    Talk about getting caught up in the excitement and carried away.
    Last edited by Lerxst; 06-16-09 at 10:56 PM.
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by NDNdancer View Post
    I did, before I posted, but, here ya go.


    FYI, from Wiki: Grand Ayatollah Hossein-Ali Montazeri - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    Scroll down a lil in that and?
    There he is being kicked out and lucky to be alive.

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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by Triad View Post
    Well yeah... who knows what will happen for sure.



    Are you sure they have a wider base or does it just seems that way because of the way the media is framing the story. So far 99.9% of all reports, videos, etc have been form Tehran. Its is the capital but its one city and rather known for "protests" (ie 1999 etc.) usually propelled by students.


    One long standing anti-government Cleric and unconfirmed reports of a few soldiers maybe being arrested along with other claims of unrest that nobody can confirm doesn't mean much. I'm sure you have seen protests against governments before...they all have these stories.

    I hope it is the end..I hope their is a coup or civil war to remove the theocracy..what I see now though isn't ever going to do that.

    IMO this will fizzle out ..BUT if it doesn't then the day the troops move in to put them down is their day of decision. The can either pick up that gun or they best go home.
    It's more then just students backed by clerics this time. It's students, academics, professionals, workers, clerics..... and now, even some of the elite Guard and military, maybe. Those reports have been going around for a couple of days now, not just one, but several times and it makes sense and explains the use of the militia which I thought was odd.

    It may not be enough to take over, but it is certainly enough to make the mullahs and Ayotollah take notice. If they lose the army, they've lost the power to effectively stop the protesters.

    Sometimes revolutions take decades....
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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
    It would not be the worst thing we could do. Not at all. I don't know what you believe is happening here. This nation is in revolt of a government
    So far we have seen some mass protests and some internal dissent among the clerics, but nothing approaching open revolt yet. Every time something like this happens in a dictatorship, the Western media is quick to label the protests as on the verge of a full-scale revolution. But the revolution rarely comes. For recent examples of this, see how the Western media has covered protests in Burma and Zimbabwe. That's not to say that it's impossible (in fact, I would agree that Iran is more primed for revolution than either of those countries)...but the odds are still against it.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst
    that the majority fo the free world has identified as an oppressive, extremist, theocratic dictatorship that supports not only terrorism, but is pursuing nuclear weapons while at the same time proliferating the idea that Israel should or will be wiped off the map.
    Those things aren't really relevant to Iran's internal politics, or how likely it is that the reformers will succeed.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst
    Arming this opposition movement would be far from the worst thing we could do. Are they only worth supporting if they can take their country back through peaceful means? Do we lose some political ammunition if these folks aren't getting gunned down with no practical way to fight back?
    I question the logistics of your plan. How can we get hundreds of thousands of weapons into Iran over the span of the next couple weeks while the anger is still at its peak...and how we can distribute them solely to the protesters rather than government sympathizers? It isn't as easy as flying a helicopter over Tehran and dropping some weapons into the crowd.

    Ahmadinejad and Khamenei desperately want to crack down on the protests by calling them an American conspiracy...but the police and Guardsmen know that it isn't true, and most of them are (so far) refusing to fire on the protesters. Why would we want to make their charges true?

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst
    I don't know about you, but I want the Guardian Council and Ahmadinejad deposed, I want them struck from power, and if it takes funneling 50,000 assault rifles and 3,000 RPG's to them, well let me help load the trucks.
    Again, I question how you are going to get the weapons into the hands of the protesters in the length of time it would take for them to actually be effective. And I would question why you would want to tempt fate since if it comes down to a battle of firepower, the government would easily crush the protesters.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst
    This isn't a romantic endeavor by the people of Iran, this is a bloody, violent uprising to three decades of dictatorial oppression.
    So far it is nothing of the kind. I think YOU are making this into a more romantic endeavor than it actually is at the present time.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst
    I never said we need to sponsor a "civil war." I said we should support this uprising. Arms and information are what these people need, not just good will and Twitter.
    Arms - There is simply no way that we can effectively get arms to the protesters right now. This is impossible.

    Information - The protesters on the ground in Iran almost certainly know more about the situation than our government does. If there is any information sharing, it would be Iranian dissidents sharing information with the US government...not the other way around.
    Last edited by Kandahar; 06-16-09 at 11:07 PM.
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    Re: Riots erupt in Tehran over 'stolen' election

    Quote Originally Posted by Triad View Post
    Scroll down a lil in that and?
    There he is being kicked out and lucky to be alive.
    Actually, BECAUSE of why he's been in trouble and WHO he is, a Grand Ayatollah and a leader in the Islamic revolution, he's beloved among the opposition and still has considerable power. Once you attain his level within the religious clergy, it's very hard to discount their words, unless they're deemed traitors or something else.

    It would be like a Bishop in the Catholic Church who was an advocate for gay marriage, abortion and female priests..... lol.....

    Well, maybe that goes to far, but I'm sure you get my drift...
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