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Thread: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    More Guns, Less Crime - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    John Lott's study is not without controversy, but despite nit-picking about technical proceedures remains significant:

    From an excellent summary page:

    Gun control laws effects on criminals, specifically the Brady law and NICS:
    Actual Effect on Criminals:
    Goshin:

    Re: The Wiki article on Lott Book. Honestly, I have never seen a Wiki article with so many oppositional positions.

    I don't doubt Lott's academic credentials, he was educated at one California's fine Universities, UCLA. However, the number of other academics who take issue with his work raises eyebrows.

    It's doesn't appear that his data in is in question but rather his interpretation of that data. You call it nit-picky, but it appears that Lott's work has been reviewed quite thoroughly.

    Opposition

    Academic studies that have rejected Lott's conclusions include the following. With the exception of the 2003 study by John J. Donohue, these studies generally contend that there seems to be little or no effect on crime from the passage of license-to-carry laws. Donohue's 2003 study finds an increase in violence. (This is contradicted by Moody and Marvell's September 2008 study in Econ Journal Watch; a response from Donohue and Ayres will be forthcoming in the January 2009 issue.)

    Jens Ludwig, Do Permissive Concealed-Carry Laws Reduce Violent Crime? unpublished draft dated Oct. 8, 1996, on file with Albert Alschuler. Ludwig notes a correlation between PPBF4049 (percent of population black, female, aged 40 to 49) and high crime rates in the data used in the Lott & Mustard crime trends regressions. (This factor is found as a correlation, but is not cited in Lott & Mustard 1997 as a causation.)

    Albert Alschuler, Two Guns, Four Guns, Six Guns, More Guns: Does Arming the Public Reduce Crime? Valparaiso U Law Rev. Spring 1997. Alschuler notes that while PPBM2029 (as perpetrators of crime) and PPBF64+ (as victims) are strongly correlated to high homicide rates in the dataset used by Lott & Mustard 1997, PPBF4049 is rated more highly as a predictor of homicide rate. Alschuler notes that Lott supplied him with his copy of Ludwig's 1996 paper as well as the Lott & Mustard data.

    Franklin Zimring and Gordon Hawkins, Concealed Handguns: The Counterfeit Deterrent, 7 The Responsive Community 2 (Spring 1997). Zimring & Hawkins cite recognition of the legitimacy of defensive gun use as an impediment to the socially desirable goal of eliminating private ownership of handguns and set out to criticise Lott & Mustard.

    Both Albert Alschuler and Jens Ludwig note a number of problems in their separate papers. Why, for example, should the concentration of older black women in a population predict higher crime rates in the Lott and Mustard model, but not the increased concentration of young men, age 20 to 29, who are vastly more likely to commit such offenses?

    David Hemenway, 'Review of More Guns, Less Crime: Understanding Crime and Gun-Control Laws', New England Journal of Medicine, 1998.[10] Hemenway's review states
    Lott finds, for example, that both increasing the rate of unemployment and reducing income reduces the rate of violent crimes and that reducing the number of black women 40 years old or older (who are rarely either perpetrators or victims of murder) substantially reduces murder rates. Indeed, according to Lott's results, getting rid of older black women will lead to a more dramatic reduction in homicide rates than increasing arrest rates or enacting shall-issue laws

    Rutgers sociology professor Ted Goertzel stated that "Lott’s massive data set was simply unsuitable for his task", and that he "compar[ed] trends in Idaho and West Virginia and Mississippi with trends in Washington, D.C. and New York City" without proper statistical controls. He alleged that econometric methods are susceptible to misuse and can even become junk science.
    Ian Ayres, Yale Law School, and John Donohue, Stanford Law School, 'Shooting Down the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis'. Stanford Law Review, 2003.

    Jens Ludwig, Georgetown University, "Concealed-Gun-Carrying Laws and Violent Crime: Evidence from State Panel Data", published in International Review of Law and Economics, 1998.

    Dan Black and Daniel Nagin, "Do 'Right-to-Carry' Laws Deter Violent Crime?" Journal of Legal Studies, Vol. 27, No. 1, pp. 209-213 (January 1998).
    Mark Duggan, University of Chicago, "More Guns, More Crime," National Bureau of Economic Research, NBER Working Paper No. W7967, October 2000, later published in Journal of Political Economy.

    Steven Levitt, University of Chicago, 'Understanding Why Crime Fell in the 1990s: Four Factors that Explain the Decline and Six that Do Not'. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 2004.[15] Levitt lists 'Laws allowing a right to carry concealed weapons' as number five in his list of 'Six Factors that Played Little or No Role in the Crime Decline'.

    Jeffrey Miron, Boston University, 'Violence, Guns, and Drugs: A Cross-Country Analysis'. The Journal of Law and Economics, October 2001.
    Tomislav V. Kovandzic and Thomas B. Marvell, "Right-To-Carry Concealed Firearms and Violent Crime: Crime Control Through Gun Decontrol?" Criminology and Public Policy 2, (2003) pages 363-396.

    John J. Donahue III, Stanford Law School, 'The Final Bullet in the Body of the More Guns, Less Crime Hypothesis', Criminology and Public Policy, 2003.
    Goshin:

    You linked to the Wiki article, and I think it's reasonable to examine everything there, correct?


    Ayres and Donohue's analysis of Lott's work:


    We disagree. Over time, a body of empirical research can disentangle
    thorny issues of causation and lead toward consensus. We view this Article as playing a role in this process (not in ending the conversation). On net, we
    believe that Lott and Mustard’s efforts made an important contribution to the
    literature. They asked the initial question, amassed an important new panel
    dataset, and then energetically and creatively analyzed it. (Indeed, their
    dataset, which we know from experience was quite costly to construct, has been used by many researchers to explore this and other questions about crime.) Nevertheless, their results have not withstood the test of time. When we added five years of county data and seven years of state data, allowing us to test an additional fourteen jurisdictions that adopted shall-issue laws, the previous Lott and Mustard findings proved not to be robust. Importantly, we showed that the Lott and Mustard results collapse when the more complete county data is subjected to less-constrained jurisdiction-specific specifications or when the more-complete state data is tweaked in plausible ways. No longer can any plausible case be made on statistical grounds that shall-issue laws are likely to reduce crime for all or even most states. How much further one can go in arguing that shall-issue laws likely increase crime across the board or have heterogeneous effects across states (albeit most commonly pernicious) will be matters about which various analysts will differ. We conclude with Learned Hand’s advice that, unlike a policy advocate, an academic must “keep an open mind to every disconcerting fact, [and] an open ear to the cold voice of doubt.”
    Hand admonished: “You may not carry a sword beneath a scholar’s gown.”

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Reverend_Hellh0und View Post
    They stood there and let it happen....
    On further reflection, this version is more appropriate than the way I worded it. Again, those people are one of two things, cowards or callous, nevermind, they're both.
    Neither side in an argument can find the truth when both make an absolute claim on it.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by hazlnut View Post
    Goshin:

    Re: The Wiki article on Lott Book. Honestly, I have never seen a Wiki article with so many oppositional positions.

    I don't doubt Lott's academic credentials, he was educated at one California's fine Universities, UCLA. However, the number of other academics who take issue with his work raises eyebrows.

    It's doesn't appear that his data in is in question but rather his interpretation of that data. You call it nit-picky, but it appears that Lott's work has been reviewed quite thoroughly.



    Goshin:

    You linked to the Wiki article, and I think it's reasonable to examine everything there, correct?


    Ayres and Donohue's analysis of Lott's work:


    Fair enough. There are those who question Lott's analysis. The Wiki article is balanced and has both pro- and anti- viewpoints.

    I stand by what I've said. There's tons of evidence out there that guns in the hands of law abiding citizens do far more good than harm.

    the Kleck Study:
    Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology

    Number Of Protective Uses Of Firearms In U.S: Projected at a minimum of 2.5 million cases annually, equal to 1% of total U.S. population each year. Criminal assailants are killed by their victims or others in only about 0.1%, and wounded in only about 1.0% of incidents as described above. Most such crimes are prevented by mere presence of a firearm in the hands of an intended victim.(Dr. Gary Kleck, PhD, Florida State University, Targeting Guns, 1998)

    A 1993 Gallup Poll study (hardly a conservative partisan group) found a likely annual rate of defensive gun use (DGU) of 777,153 per year in the US.
    An LA Times 1994 study found an implied national DGU of 3,609,682.

    National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).

    Data from the NCVS imply that each year there are only about 68,000 defensive uses of guns in connection with assaults and robberies, [16] or about 80,000 to 82,000 if one adds in uses linked with household burglaries. [17] These figures are less than one ninth of the estimates implied by the results of at least thirteen other surveys, summarized in Table 1, most of which have been previously reported. [18] The NCVS estimates imply that about 0.09 of 1% of U.S. households experience a defensive gun use (DGU) in any one year, compared to the Mauser survey's estimate of 3.79% of households over a five year period, or about 0.76% in any one year, assuming an even distribution over the five year period, and no repeat uses. [19]
    The strongest evidence that a measurement is inaccurate is that it is inconsistent with many other independent measurements or observations of the same phenomenon; indeed, some would argue that this is ultimately the only way of knowing that a measurement is wrong. Therefore, one might suppose that the gross inconsistency of the NCVS-based estimates with all other known estimates, each derived from sources with no known flaws even remotely substantial enough to account for nine-to-one, or more, discrepancies, would be sufficient to persuade any serious scholar that the NCVS estimates are unreliable.
    ...The NCVS was not designed to estimate how often people resist crime using a gun. It was designed primarily to estimate national victimization levels; it incidentally happens to include a few self-protection questions which include response categories covering resistance with a gun.

    The Kleck study concluded that there were possibly as many as 2.5 million defensive gun uses per year, many of which involved no shots fired or no one injured, and many of which were not reported:
    The most technically sound estimates presented in Table 2 are those based on the shorter one-year recall period that rely on Rs' first-hand accounts of their own experiences (person-based estimates). These estimates appear in the first two columns. They indicate that each year in the U.S. there are about 2.2 to 2.5 million DGUs of all types by civilians against humans, with about 1.5 to 1.9 million of the incidents involving use of handguns.
    Firearms Accidents and Firearms Safety Education
    Fatal Firearms Accidents for All Ages Annually: 1,134 nationwide in 1996. Rate of 0.4 per 100M population. Represents a roughly 90% decrease from record high in 1904. Accident rate is down by 65% since 1930, while U.S. population has doubled and number of privately-owned firearms has quadrupled. Compare to other types of fatal accidents, for all ages: Motor Vehicles 16.7/100M, Falls 4.8/100M, Poisoning 4.0/100M, Drowning 1.7/100M, Fires 1.6/100M, Choking 1.1/100M.(National Safety Council, National Center for Health Statistics, BATF, US Census)

    Fatal Firearms Accidents for Children 14 and Under Annually: 138 nationwide in 1996. About 3% of all fatal accidents under age 14. Represents a 75% decrease from record high of 550 in 1975. Compared to other types of fatal accidents for children: Motor Vehicles 44%, Fires 16%, Drowning 14%, Choking 4.5%.(Nat'l Safety Council, Nat'l Center for Health Statistics)

    Lawful defensive uses outnumber all accidents by anywhere from 50 to 1, to thousands to one, depending on what set of numbers you choose to believe. The most conservative numbers are using those provided by the government.

    G.
    Last edited by Goshin; 06-03-09 at 08:37 PM.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by missypea View Post
    I'm not reading through 21 pages to see if this has been addressed so if it has, my apologies.


    You implied in your OP that if V-Tech allowed guns that Xin Yang would be alive. Did Xin Yang carry a gun while not at school?


    Also, it sounds like he jumped up and attacked her quickly. Even if she had a gun in her purse or wherever it doesn't sound like she had the time to arm herself with a gun and shoot prior being fatally injured.


    :
    I realize it is a long thread, but this aspect has been hashed to death. Pardon the pun.

    Nobody is saying that she definately, positively would have survived if lawful permit-holders were allowed to carry on campus. My position is that allowing law abiding concealed-carry permit holders to carry on campus will improve safety, and give people like this girl and the victims of the V-tech slaughter last year a second chance, as the chances of someone stopping the crime would be greatly increased.

    G.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Goshin View Post
    I realize it is a long thread, but this aspect has been hashed to death. Pardon the pun.

    Nobody is saying that she definately, positively would have survived if lawful permit-holders were allowed to carry on campus. My position is that allowing law abiding concealed-carry permit holders to carry on campus will improve safety, and give people like this girl and the victims of the V-tech slaughter last year a second chance, as the chances of someone stopping the crime would be greatly increased.

    G.

    Actually, I think if the government would lift it's ban on backbones and permitted the private owership and carrying thereof, the mass slaughters would be less effective and young ladies would be more confident their heads won't be removed in public places.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Scarecrow Akhbar View Post
    Actually, I think if the government would lift it's ban on backbones and permitted the private owership and carrying thereof, the mass slaughters would be less effective and young ladies would be more confident their heads won't be removed in public places.

    Scarecrow and Goshin:

    I'm not clear on what it is you want as far as gun rights that you don't already have.

    Specifically, what restrictions on your ability to purchase and use guns do you have a problem with?

    It has come out that Scott Roeder has been arrested in 1996 for possession of bomb making materials. Were his gun rights restricted as a result of this? If not, should they have been?

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by hazlnut View Post
    Scarecrow and Goshin:

    I'm not clear on what it is you want as far as gun rights that you don't already have.

    Specifically, what restrictions on your ability to purchase and use guns do you have a problem with?

    It has come out that Scott Roeder has been arrested in 1996 for possession of bomb making materials. Were his gun rights restricted as a result of this? If not, should they have been?
    I thought the topic at hand was reasonably clear: that the restriction against those with concealed carry permits, not being allowed to carry such places as colleges and schools, be lifted in order to increase the number of citizens able to effectively stop crimes in progress.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    I am leaning to the side of let them carry
    but nobody acted without a gun while this girl was stabbed and decapitated so I do not think, if they were carrying, they would have done anything either.
    took some real beatings over the head here for me to realize you really do not know how you will act in a crisis situation until you are in it
    just because they have the gun does not mean they will use it.
    a chair to the back of the head would have worked nicely on this freak but nobody moved

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    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    How the hell did you just tie in a retroactive reparative measure with a proactive preventative measure. Not even close to being the same thing.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by DeeJayH View Post
    I am leaning to the side of let them carry
    but nobody acted without a gun while this girl was stabbed and decapitated so I do not think, if they were carrying, they would have done anything either.
    took some real beatings over the head here for me to realize you really do not know how you will act in a crisis situation until you are in it
    just because they have the gun does not mean they will use it.
    a chair to the back of the head would have worked nicely on this freak but nobody moved
    As I said early on, if there are no testicles present, weapons won't help much....BUT some people would take on a knifer if they had a gun, who wouldn't try if they had to go hand to hand with him.

    G.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Some Colleges Bar Even Talking About Right to Bear Arms, Gun Advocates Say
    Thursday, June 04, 2009
    By Kelley Beaucar Vlahos

    Print ShareThisWASHINGTON — The First Amendment guarantees Americans the right to free speech. The Second Amendment guarantees the right to possess firearms. Now the first two clauses in the Bill of Rights have come together in an ongoing debate over the right of college students to advocate that they be allowed to carry guns on campus.

    The bloody massacres at Virginia Tech and Columbine High School, as well as smaller campus shootings across the country in the last decade, have fomented a lively debate over whether citizens should be allowed to carry concealed weapons to defend themselves on campus.

    But that debate has hit a wall of resistance from school officials in some places, bringing into focus the dual issues of gun rights and free speech.

    Many gun-rights advocates are arguing that college campuses, which are supposed to be open to diversity of thought, provocative dialogue, politics and protest, are hardly bastions of free speech when it comes to discussing firearms.

    "The fact is, the topic is so explosive," said Robert Shibley, spokesman for the Foundation for Individual Rights in Education (FIRE), which tracks discriminatory practices against students involved in conservative issues on campus. They've been dealing with "more and more" complaints about efforts to "squelch gun speech," he said.

    The latest flareup involves Christine Brashier, who says officials at the Community College of Allegheny County (CCAC) violated her First Amendment right to free speech when they stopped her from posting and distributing fliers advocating for concealed carry on campus, and for a new chapter of Students for Concealed Carry on Campus (SCCC) at the college. The group has about a dozen chapters on other Pennsylvania campuses, Shibley said.

    "I genuinely wanted to start discussion on the topic," Brasier told FOXNews.com this week. " I am not such an avid gun owner as much of the news has made me out to be — I simply believe in liberty and that college is the place for a debate about important issues such as this one."

    Brashier, 24, who is a freshman at the school, said she worked for the last three years in a law office, and before that, as an assistant manager at a convenience store, which was robbed at gunpoint twice while she worked there.

    She is licensed to carry a concealed weapon in Pennsylvania, but school policy prevents her from carrying it on campus. Most states allow schools to set their own policy on concealed carry laws....
    Some Colleges Bar Even Talking About Right to Bear Arms, Gun Advocates Say - Local News | News Articles | National News | US News - FOXNews.com


    Funny, I thought Universities were all about freedom of speech, open minds, the free flow of ideas.... OH, yeah I forgot, that only applies to Leftists. Righties are supposed to shut up and listen, and be glad they're allowed on campus at all.

    G.

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