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Thread: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

  1. #101
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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    Again, these statistics are useless unless they're controlled for other factors such as wealth, race, population, national factors, etc.

    The homicide rate between 1991 and 2006 dropped by around 80% in NYC, and we didn't allow concealed carry. Does that mean that banning guns works? No.



    do you have a link for these statistics? i am showing statistics, links, etc. everyone else seems to be throwing speculation and (not you) hysterics.
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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Best I could find in a hurry: Bureau of Justice Statistics Violent Crime Rate.

    Since about 93(when the stats method was changed) violent crime rate went from about 50 per 1000, to about 20 per 1000 in 2008.
    Last edited by Redress; 05-31-09 at 05:31 PM. Reason: Made link work

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Want some facts? Studies, analysis, footnotes, links, etc? Here ya go....


    the Kleck Study:
    Journal of Criminal Law and Criminology

    Number Of Protective Uses Of Firearms In U.S: Projected at a minimum of 2.5 million cases annually, equal to 1% of total U.S. population each year. Criminal assailants are killed by their victims or others in only about 0.1%, and wounded in only about 1.0% of incidents as described above. Most such crimes are prevented by mere presence of a firearm in the hands of an intended victim.(Dr. Gary Kleck, PhD, Florida State University, Targeting Guns, 1998)

    A 1993 Gallup Poll study (hardly a conservative partisan group) found a likely annual rate of defensive gun use (DGU) of 777,153 per year in the US.
    An LA Times 1994 study found an implied national DGU of 3,609,682.

    National Crime Victimization Survey (NCVS).

    Data from the NCVS imply that each year there are only about 68,000 defensive uses of guns in connection with assaults and robberies, [16] or about 80,000 to 82,000 if one adds in uses linked with household burglaries. [17] These figures are less than one ninth of the estimates implied by the results of at least thirteen other surveys, summarized in Table 1, most of which have been previously reported. [18] The NCVS estimates imply that about 0.09 of 1% of U.S. households experience a defensive gun use (DGU) in any one year, compared to the Mauser survey's estimate of 3.79% of households over a five year period, or about 0.76% in any one year, assuming an even distribution over the five year period, and no repeat uses. [19]
    The strongest evidence that a measurement is inaccurate is that it is inconsistent with many other independent measurements or observations of the same phenomenon; indeed, some would argue that this is ultimately the only way of knowing that a measurement is wrong. Therefore, one might suppose that the gross inconsistency of the NCVS-based estimates with all other known estimates, each derived from sources with no known flaws even remotely substantial enough to account for nine-to-one, or more, discrepancies, would be sufficient to persuade any serious scholar that the NCVS estimates are unreliable.
    ...The NCVS was not designed to estimate how often people resist crime using a gun. It was designed primarily to estimate national victimization levels; it incidentally happens to include a few self-protection questions which include response categories covering resistance with a gun.

    The Kleck study concluded that there were possibly as many as 2.5 million defensive gun uses per year, many of which involved no shots fired or no one injured, and many of which were not reported:
    The most technically sound estimates presented in Table 2 are those based on the shorter one-year recall period that rely on Rs' first-hand accounts of their own experiences (person-based estimates). These estimates appear in the first two columns. They indicate that each year in the U.S. there are about 2.2 to 2.5 million DGUs of all types by civilians against humans, with about 1.5 to 1.9 million of the incidents involving use of handguns.
    These Wikipedia articles are good sources of general information on concealed-carry permits and related issues.
    They include information from both pro and anti perspectives.

    Concealed carry in the United States - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    North Carolina reports only 0.2% of their 263,102 holders had their license revoked in the 10 years since they have adopted the law.[61]

    Permit holders are a remarkably law-abiding subclass of the population. Florida, which has issued over 1,408,907 permits in twenty one years, has revoked only 166 for a "crime after licensure involving a firearm," and fewer than 4,500 permits for any reason.[62]
    More Guns, Less Crime - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    John Lott's study is not without controversy, but despite nit-picking about technical proceedures remains significant:
    Lott examines the effects of shall issue laws on violent crime across the United States.

    His conclusion is that shall issue laws, which allow citizens to carry concealed weapons, steadily decrease violent crime. He explains that this result makes sense because criminals are deterred by the risk of attacking an armed victim. As more citizens arm themselves, the danger to criminals increases.

    From an excellent summary page:

    Firearms as Used in Crime
    Annual Criminal Abuse of Firearms Nationally: Less than 0.2% of all firearms, and less than 0.4% of all handguns. More than 99.8% of all guns, and 99.6% of all handguns are NOT used in criminal activity in any given year.(BATF, FBI)
    Crime in the United States
    Chance of Any Single Individual Being a Victim of Violent Crime In Their Lifetime: Currently about 65 to 70%, depending on age, profession, lifestyle, geographic and demographic factors.(US DoJ, FBI UCR)
    Firearms Accidents and Firearms Safety Education
    Fatal Firearms Accidents for All Ages Annually: 1,134 nationwide in 1996. Rate of 0.4 per 100M population. Represents a roughly 90% decrease from record high in 1904. Accident rate is down by 65% since 1930, while U.S. population has doubled and number of privately-owned firearms has quadrupled. Compare to other types of fatal accidents, for all ages: Motor Vehicles 16.7/100M, Falls 4.8/100M, Poisoning 4.0/100M, Drowning 1.7/100M, Fires 1.6/100M, Choking 1.1/100M.(National Safety Council, National Center for Health Statistics, BATF, US Census)

    Fatal Firearms Accidents for Children 14 and Under Annually: 138 nationwide in 1996. About 3% of all fatal accidents under age 14. Represents a 75% decrease from record high of 550 in 1975. Compared to other types of fatal accidents for children: Motor Vehicles 44%, Fires 16%, Drowning 14%, Choking 4.5%.(Nat'l Safety Council, Nat'l Center for Health Statistics)
    Gun control laws effects on criminals, specifically the Brady law and NICS:
    Actual Effect on Criminals:
    Nationally convictions for 'attempt to purchase' by disqualified individuals under Brady now total 7 since early 1994. There are now in excess of 20,000 federal, state and local gun laws on the books, yet few if any have proven clearly effective in reducing violence or a criminal's access to firearms. Some 93% of firearms used in crime are reported as stolen or come from some other uncontrollable source.(DPS/BCI, US DoJ, BATF)
    Last edited by Goshin; 05-31-09 at 06:08 PM.

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  4. #104
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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by RightinNYC View Post
    What happened to the crime rate in states that did not pass concealed carry laws?
    The last time I checked, they also went down, but typically not as much.

    G.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Redress View Post
    I have been to Israel, and I am sure you are right. Do not take this wrong, but I hope we never end up like Israel though.
    I do.

    I long for the day when douchebag 18 year old punks (as I once was) are forced to join the military for a minimum of 2 years and learn some god damned discipline.
    "I condemn the ideology of White Supremacy and Nazism. They are thugs, criminals, and repugnant, and are against what I believe to be "The American Way" "
    Thus my obligatory condemnation of White supremacy will now be in every post, lest I be accused of supporting it because I didn't mention it specifically every time I post.

  6. #106
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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Caine View Post
    I do.

    I long for the day when douchebag 18 year old punks (as I once was) are forced to join the military for a minimum of 2 years and learn some god damned discipline.
    OK, in that way, yes I would not mind being like Israel(and I have mentioned my belief mandatory service for high school graduates). But having armed soldiers in the street, that I would not like to be forced to.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    The problem with laws banning guns from college campuses is that most instances of collegiate partying (from experiences here in North Carolina) happen off-campus.

    I am for gun ownership, as long as there is permits for the guns. Permits should require lengthy courses with tough examinations with both questions of Laws, consequences, and rights, and gun accuracy, trouble shooting, and safety precautions. I think individuals with an extensive history of violent-related infractions should be barred from gun ownership. I think an unlawful usage of gun should be grounds for immediate cancellation of permit.

    I agree that Guns should not be allowed in Courthouses. I think establishments such as bars, sporting venues, and cafes should be under the discretion of the store-owner. If the Boss says no, then the Boss says no.

    I think an armed, trained, and permitted friend is much more trustworthy than a platoon of Cops.
    "I do not underestimate the ability of fanatical groups of terrorists to kill and destroy, but they do not threaten the life of the nation. Whether we would survive Hitler hung in the balance, but there is no doubt that we shall survive al-Qa'ida." -- Lord Hoffmann

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Arch Enemy View Post
    I think an armed, trained, and permitted friend is much more trustworthy than a platoon of Cops.
    Are you sure you used the right word?

    How about dependable in an emergency?
    "I condemn the ideology of White Supremacy and Nazism. They are thugs, criminals, and repugnant, and are against what I believe to be "The American Way" "
    Thus my obligatory condemnation of White supremacy will now be in every post, lest I be accused of supporting it because I didn't mention it specifically every time I post.

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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Caine View Post
    Are you sure you used the right word?

    How about dependable in an emergency?
    Depends on what kind of an emergency we are talking about. If I am wounded then I would prefer the Medics. If someone stabs me and then threatens to cut my face off, I'd assume my friends (who are with me much more than a police officer) could stand up for me.
    "I do not underestimate the ability of fanatical groups of terrorists to kill and destroy, but they do not threaten the life of the nation. Whether we would survive Hitler hung in the balance, but there is no doubt that we shall survive al-Qa'ida." -- Lord Hoffmann

  10. #110
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    Re: Horrifying Details Emerge in Hearing on Virginia Tech Murder

    Quote Originally Posted by Reverend_Hellh0und View Post
    do you have a link for these statistics? i am showing statistics, links, etc. everyone else seems to be throwing speculation and (not you) hysterics.
    In 1990, there were 2,245 homicides and a population of 7,322,564, for a homicide rate of 30.65 per 100,000.

    In 2007, there were 497 homicides and a population of approx 8,300,000, for a homicide rate of 5.98 per 100,000.

    That's an 80.5% drop in a 17 year period.

    Numbers calculated via calculator, teh googel and wikipedia.
    For confirmation, see: http://www.nytimes.com/2008/01/01/ny...07&oref=slogin
    People sleep peaceably in their beds at night only because rough men stand ready to do violence on their behalf.

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