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Thread: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    I keep hearing that argument but I just don't buy it. Twenty-four hours. Forty-eight, tops.
    I agree, if Iran appears an unstable oil supplier it will lose business and the state is too reliant on the revenues to risk disruption.

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    I keep hearing that argument but I just don't buy it. Twenty-four hours. Forty-eight, tops.
    And that's the point I was trying to make as well, they would be cutting off their head to spite their face. If they were shut down the straits they would suffer more than anyone else. We would get them back open in fairly short order and wreck their ability to service their primary customers. Iran would be the big loser in that game.
    *insert profound statement here*

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    I keep hearing that argument but I just don't buy it. Twenty-four hours. Forty-eight, tops.
    How are you going to clear the strait of large nautical hazards within two days especially in war zone? Remember it's not like you can just blow the stuff up easily. The strait at its deepest point is a mere 150 feet. That calls for hauling stuff out. Besides, the economic impact would be immediate upon prices...which is the whole point of doing it.

    As for the arguments about who it hurts most, if the Regime think it's going down, then such analysis does not matter as the Regime has nothing to lose at that point.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    How are you going to clear the strait of large nautical hazards within two days especially in war zone? Remember it's not like you can just blow the stuff up easily. The strait at its deepest point is a mere 150 feet. That calls for hauling stuff out. Besides, the economic impact would be immediate upon prices...which is the whole point of doing it.

    As for the arguments about who it hurts most, if the Regime think it's going down, then such analysis does not matter as the Regime has nothing to lose at that point.
    I don't think the Iranians are that crazy. Crazy, yes, but not that crazy.

    And I believe we could haul it out within two days. I don't think that is beyond our capability. 48 hours. Tops.

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by jallman View Post
    I don't think the Iranians are that crazy. Crazy, yes, but not that crazy.
    Dictatorships that are going down have been known to do some pretty insane stuff.

    And I believe we could haul it out within two days. I don't think that is beyond our capability. 48 hours. Tops.
    I dunno. In the middle of a war zone? Especially in range of short range anti-ship missiles from Iran's coast? You'd have to essentially control the entire region to be able to do it that quickly. You'd have to map the floor and pull it all out. And that's just half of it. Who the hell wants to send super tankers through a war zone?
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Dictatorships that are going down have been known to do some pretty insane stuff.



    I dunno. In the middle of a war zone? Especially in range of short range anti-ship missiles from Iran's coast? You'd have to essentially control the entire region to be able to do it that quickly. You'd have to map the floor and pull it all out. And that's just half of it. Who the hell wants to send super tankers through a war zone?
    I don't really believe that it would be much of a war zone in the actual gulf because I think Iran's navy would be destroyed within hours.

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Assuming we still are keeping a carrier battle group in the Persian/Arabian Gulf, there would be no real naval battle. Missiles along the shore is a bigger threat, but in the case of a shooting war, could be pretty well neutralized. We do have 3 Aegis cruisers and 15 Aegis destroyers which could provide moderate protections from missiles, along with carrier aircraft patrolling and attacking any missile launch sites. Any site launching missiles would be surely destroyed, with some risk to the ships involved. Not an ideal situation, but certainly doable.

    Note: 3 cruisers and 15 destroyers refer to fleet totals, not how many are available to deploy. There are probably 1 to 2 with a battle group in the gulf area currently, though I am not positive on this.

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by Lerxst View Post
    they would be cutting off their head to spite their face.

    Haven't heard that in a while. Dont agree with what you said but i like that you said that.

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Maybe, but merely because we have some tenuous control over the strait doesn't mean that it will materially reduce risk to shipping (in the shipper's view) as well as insurance rates. Oil prices are going to fly through the roof on any abnormal activity happening in that region.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Iran sends warships to Gulf of Aden - navy

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Maybe, but merely because we have some tenuous control over the strait doesn't mean that it will materially reduce risk to shipping (in the shipper's view) as well as insurance rates. Oil prices are going to fly through the roof on any abnormal activity happening in that region.
    Which is why any Iranian naval vessels in that area need to be sunk on sight. Then ALL Iranian sea ports need to be destroyed. If Iran has no Navy or ports, they cannot cause any grief in the Strait of Hormuz.

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