Recession Is Over According to Financial Experts

Let me see here - The recession is over because housing prices fell again last month? Because unemployment increased last month? Because sales were down last month? This "news" from ABC News is more than a bit suspect.

Is what ABC News billed as the Great Recession just a couple of months ago now really over, or is this just some feel good propaganda? You make the call. Answer the poll.

Article is here.

By definition the recession may end soon. But that doesn't mean that the economy is getting better just yet. But the stimulus pkg. may have provided enough short term relief to at least by "definition" end the recession.

There are two basic scenarios:

1. We are in a recession.
2. We are in an expansion.

If we are in a recession, the economy is contracting, demand is dropping, consumption is dropping, unemployment is growing.

If we are in an expansion, the economy is growing, demand is increasing, consumption is increasing, and unemployment is (or will be--lagging indicators being, well, laggards) shrinking.

However, in either case, the monkey wrench in the works is the massive amounts of "stimulus" and "quantitative easing" applied by the previous and current administrations.

If the economy is contracting, the "stimulus" and "quantitative easing" are propping up industries such as housing that need to finish collapsing, and are thus prolonging the recession.

If the economy is expanding, the "stimulus" is being applied at the worst possible time, and will inflate the economy, potentially producing other economic bubbles.

The economy is contracting or expanding--either way, the economic measures currently being enacted are bad news.

We have been in recession since 2007, so yes it is most likely over. However that does not automaticly mean that unemployment will go down and so on.. that takes time.

I would never put my money in the hands of these "experts". The market is not showing any stability right now, that would mean that it isn't in a true expansion at the moment, thus, we are still in a contraction period. If people wanted to truly end this recession in Washington I've got a solution for them, "shut up"....... there, that's it, every time one of those morons in the capitol opens their mouths the market loses ground.

Shep Dawg said:

By definition the recession may end soon. But that doesn't mean that the economy is getting better just yet. But the stimulus pkg. may have provided enough short term relief to at least by "definition" end the recession.

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LOL? What stimulus money?

Nearly three months after President Obama approved a $787 billion economic stimulus package, intended to create or save jobs, the federal government has paid out less than 6 percent of the money, largely in the form of social service payments to states.

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http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/us/politics/13stimulus.html?_r=1

Really, you should understand how this porkulous has gone down, so far... nadda, and most of what's been spent/sent ot the states? Pays for government services....

The stimulus bill has directly injected around $45.6 billion into the economy, mostly to help states cover the costs of Medicaid and unemployment benefits, one-time $250 checks that were mailed to Social Security recipients last week, and income tax cuts that began to take effect this spring.

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MrVicchio said:

LOL? What stimulus money?


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/us/politics/13stimulus.html?_r=1

Really, you should understand how this porkulous has gone down, so far... nadda, and most of what's been spent/sent ot the states? Pays for government services....

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If the economy is indeed in recovery and no longer in recession, then the "stimulus" package was never the urgent need Dear Leader and the Anti-Republicans claimed it was.

If the economy is indeed in recovery and no longer in recession, then the most prudent course for government to take in February was the "do nothing" approach advocated by some (including me) back in January.

If the economy is indeed in recovery and no longer in recession, then the prudent course now is for Dear Leader to call for a reversal of the stimulus bill, and for both Republican and Anti-Republican alike to unanimously vote to do exactly that.

MrVicchio said:

LOL? What stimulus money?


http://www.nytimes.com/2009/05/13/us/politics/13stimulus.html?_r=1

Really, you should understand how this porkulous has gone down, so far... nadda, and most of what's been spent/sent ot the states? Pays for government services....

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Perhaps you misunderstood my post, or maybe I wasn't clear. I'm not suggesting that the stimulus pkg. was spent, nor that I approve of all the projects that are on the radar for future spending. I was merely stating the a recession is generally defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The short term effect's of what has been spent may prevent negative growth for the quarter. Therefore by "definition" the recession would be over. I understand the economy quite well thank you, and how the stimulus pkg is designed to work. While I may not agree with all that's in it, the short term effects are evident. Housing purchases are up, as well as refies. Consumer spending is slightly above where they had predicted, albeit still down. Without the stimulus, unemployment benefit's wouldn't have been able to be paid. Make no mistake, I think we still have a long way to go before the economy makes a positive turn for any sustained length of time.

Shep Dawg said:

Perhaps you misunderstood my post, or maybe I wasn't clear. I'm not suggesting that the stimulus pkg. was spent, nor that I approve of all the projects that are on the radar for future spending. I was merely stating the a recession is generally defined as 2 consecutive quarters of negative economic growth. The short term effect's of what has been spent may prevent negative growth for the quarter. Therefore by "definition" the recession would be over. I understand the economy quite well thank you, and how the stimulus pkg is designed to work. While I may not agree with all that's in it, the short term effects are evident. Housing purchases are up, as well as refies. Consumer spending is slightly above where they had predicted, albeit still down. Without the stimulus, unemployment benefit's wouldn't have been able to be paid. Make no mistake, I think we still have a long way to go before the economy makes a positive turn for any sustained length of time.

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Retail sales drop unexpectedly in April

Consumer spending is still on a decline. By "definition", that suggests the recession is not over.

celticlord said:

Retail sales drop unexpectedly in April

Consumer spending is still on a decline. By "definition", that suggests the recession is not over.

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I agree that consumer spending is still on the decline. Just not as much as previously predicted. They had initially predicted that spending would be down another 1.3%, it was off by .5%. You do realize economic growth is based on more factors than just consumer spending right? Again, for the record I think the economy still has a long way to go before we can call it in recovery. I'm just saying that a recession is generally defined a 2 consecutive quarters of negative growth. We may see some positive growth. I think that it is artificial, and due to the stimulus pkg. but we may see it none the less.

Anybody else catch the Madoff segment on PBS last night?
The financial markets that Bernie swam in is full of other sharks who do nothing but live well on the assets of others....
We "others" might just shun Wall Street for the next decade or so, at least until government stops the crooks instead of being complicit and sharing the proceeds of the crimes.
The preceeding is from my post in another thread....
IMO, the recession could very well hit, or impact, Wall street harder than Main Street.
After most of the country, or world, has recovered, parts of our economies will still be suffering. I don't have the training or crystal ball to determine what parts might still be lagging, but if there isn't considerable change in life as we knew it, I will be very surprised.
SURELY the public has learned to distrust Wall Street by now.:shock: