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Thread: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

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    Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

    In Mexico, about 70 deaths out of roughly 1,000 cases represents a fatality rate of about 7 percent. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, which killed an estimated 50 million worldwide, had a fatality rate of about 2.5 percent.
    The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

    It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

    However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.

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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



    The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

    It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

    However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.

    I think that it's a little too early to put much weight in calculations such as these, but it's certainly interesting to contemplate.

    It seems pretty virulent so far, but it's real early to say.

    Go Mexico! Of course, if there was any justice in this world, this would have started in Luxembourg or something.


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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



    The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

    It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

    However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
    Lets not forget though that many people thought they just had the regular flu and never reported themselves to a hospital.

    I'm thinking the fatality rate is much lower.
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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



    The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

    It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

    However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
    This is not surprising me at all. My biology professor last Fall did a lecture on the Swine Flu (yes even before people really started paying attention) he said the death toll could be 10% of the world's population.

    Why Mexico?
    Well, the same reason why we ask why did Europe industrialize first? or Why were the major Monotheistic religions spawned in the Near-East?

    Circumstance and who is ****ing who.
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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    The way the news reports the genetic makeup of the flu, it sounds like someone made this thing in a lab.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    The way the news reports the genetic makeup of the flu, it sounds like someone made this thing in a lab.
    Hardly. Labs have no where near the facility for mixing viral DNA that mother nature does.

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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by celticlord View Post
    Hardly. Labs have no where near the facility for mixing viral DNA that mother nature does.
    Not necessarily. Nature has a random chance probability in mixing viral DNA affecting primarily different species. We really don't see viruses or bacteria that incorporate DNA specific to harming different species all molded into one new super bug. Labs however, can specifically splice in genes for specific symptoms and to target specific species. Like taking the worst of several viruses.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    It sounds like we're going to have to move this thread to Conspiracy Theories pretty soon.


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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by Duke View Post
    It sounds like we're going to have to move this thread to Conspiracy Theories pretty soon.


    Duke, Conspirator
    Perhaps, but we know that it is now possible to engineer viruses for specific purposes and there are thousands of people who can do it. It's only a matter of time really.
    "If your opponent is of choleric temperament, seek to irritate him." - Sun Tzu

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    Re: Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

    Quote Originally Posted by obvious Child View Post
    Perhaps, but we know that it is now possible to engineer viruses for specific purposes and there are thousands of people who can do it. It's only a matter of time really.
    Can't argue with you there. Maybe this was engineered to fix the global economic crisis.


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    The big majority of Americans, who are comparatively well off, have developed an ability to have enclaves of people living in the greatest misery without almost noticing them.
    -- Gunnar Myrdal


    The illegal we do immediately. The unconstitutional takes a little longer.
    -- Henry Kissinger


    Anyone who is capable of getting themselves made President should on no
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