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Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why?

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celticlord

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Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle

In Mexico, about 70 deaths out of roughly 1,000 cases represents a fatality rate of about 7 percent. The Spanish flu pandemic of 1918-19, which killed an estimated 50 million worldwide, had a fatality rate of about 2.5 percent.
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The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
 
celticlord said:
Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
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I think that it's a little too early to put much weight in calculations such as these, but it's certainly interesting to contemplate.

It seems pretty virulent so far, but it's real early to say.

Go Mexico! Of course, if there was any justice in this world, this would have started in Luxembourg or something. ;)


Duke
 
celticlord said:
Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
Click to expand...

Lets not forget though that many people thought they just had the regular flu and never reported themselves to a hospital.

I'm thinking the fatality rate is much lower.
 
celticlord said:
Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
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This is not surprising me at all. My biology professor last Fall did a lecture on the Swine Flu (yes even before people really started paying attention) he said the death toll could be 10% of the world's population.

Why Mexico?
Well, the same reason why we ask why did Europe industrialize first? or Why were the major Monotheistic religions spawned in the Near-East?

Circumstance and who is ****ing who.
 
obvious Child said:
The way the news reports the genetic makeup of the flu, it sounds like someone made this thing in a lab.
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Hardly. Labs have no where near the facility for mixing viral DNA that mother nature does.
 
celticlord said:
Hardly. Labs have no where near the facility for mixing viral DNA that mother nature does.
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Not necessarily. Nature has a random chance probability in mixing viral DNA affecting primarily different species. We really don't see viruses or bacteria that incorporate DNA specific to harming different species all molded into one new super bug. Labs however, can specifically splice in genes for specific symptoms and to target specific species. Like taking the worst of several viruses.
 
It sounds like we're going to have to move this thread to Conspiracy Theories pretty soon.:2razz:


Duke, Conspirator
 
Duke said:
It sounds like we're going to have to move this thread to Conspiracy Theories pretty soon.:2razz:


Duke, Conspirator
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Perhaps, but we know that it is now possible to engineer viruses for specific purposes and there are thousands of people who can do it. It's only a matter of time really.
 
obvious Child said:
Perhaps, but we know that it is now possible to engineer viruses for specific purposes and there are thousands of people who can do it. It's only a matter of time really.
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Can't argue with you there. Maybe this was engineered to fix the global economic crisis.:2razz:


The Duke of Viral Marketing
 
obvious Child said:
We really don't see viruses or bacteria that incorporate DNA specific to harming different species all molded into one new super bug.
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Uhh we see that all the time. This came from swine. Other strains of flu come from birds. Bubonic plague came from rats. HIV came from monkeys. Where do you think most human diseases COME from? Other animals.
 
Kandahar said:
Uhh we see that all the time. This came from swine. Other strains of flu come from birds. Bubonic plague came from rats. HIV came from monkeys. Where do you think most human diseases COME from? Other animals.
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[emphasis mine]

Actually, we can lay the bubonic plague at the feet of the fleas, and the rats were merely their public transportation, but otherwise yeah, your argument still stands.

Just felt like nitpicking. Carry on.
 
celticlord said:
Swine flu is worse in Mexico, but why? | World | Chron.com - Houston Chronicle



The math in the Mexico cases is disturbing. If the mortality rate holds, this is one of the most lethal influenza strains ever. If the mortality rate is in actuality closer to the Spanish Influenza rate of 2.5%, then there are some 1800 unreported (and thus wholly uncontained) cases.

It's either more lethal and less virulent, or more virulent and less lethal. Somehow, neither combination seems especially comforting.

However, one thing that has been unreported/unnoticed thus far is that Mexican authorities are not pretending there is no crisis as the Chinese government did during the SARS outbreak some years back. Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
Click to expand...

Very simple....

Mexico City is one of the biggest cities on the planet and one of the most polluted. The amount respiratory problems among the population is considerably higher in Mexico City than elsewhere, and since flue especially hits people with respiratory problems hard, and that the present flue vaccine given to said people is ineffective.. then you have the perfect cocktail for many deaths.

But keep up with you conspiracy theories and rampant latino hate, it is entertaining after all.
 
PeteEU said:
Very simple....

Mexico City is one of the biggest cities on the planet and one of the most polluted. The amount respiratory problems among the population is considerably higher in Mexico City than elsewhere, and since flue especially hits people with respiratory problems hard, and that the present flue vaccine given to said people is ineffective.. then you have the perfect cocktail for many deaths.

But keep up with you conspiracy theories and rampant latino hate, it is entertaining after all.
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This is true; furthermore, the population density there is 6 thousand people per square kilometer. The population is around 30 million (depending on who gets counted, how the census is conducted). Also, contact with animals is more common than in other cities of its size, on account of culture and other factors.


Duke
 
Duke said:
This is true; furthermore, the population density there is 6 thousand people per square kilometer. The population is around 30 million (depending on who gets counted, how the census is conducted). Also, contact with animals is more common than in other cities of its size, on account of culture and other factors.


Duke
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Exactly. Same with SARS. Chances of similar happening in Europe or US are slim due to the various factors not being present even in the high population areas. Saying that, it can spread just as well here and in US as it can everywhere else.
 
PeteEU said:
But keep up with you conspiracy theories and rampant latino hate, it is entertaining after all.
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Eh?

Rampant Latino hate? Where in the hell did you get that? Or is this another example of the usual liberal tripe of ignoring reality to the detriment of all concerned?
 
Swine flu is worse is Mexico because that's where it started. It's not severe elsewhere because the only cases are from people who came out of Mexico.

No brainer.
 
celticlord said:
Eh?

Rampant Latino hate? Where in the hell did you get that? Or is this another example of the usual liberal tripe of ignoring reality to the detriment of all concerned?
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No it comes from the way you formulated your original comment. The first part of your comment was okay, but then you had to add this..

Especially given the speculations of some (including myself) that Mexico could be on the verge of becoming a failed state, it is worth noting that they appear to be taking the influenza outbreak seriously.
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What on earth does the drug war have to do with this? And who is it that is claiming that Mexico is becoming a failed state? Is it the US government or is it right wing blogs and politicians trying to capitalize on the anti-Latino wave gripping certain parts of the US right wing? Why even mention it? What does a drug war have to do with the the fact that swine flu is "worse" in Mexico? Why did you mention this drug war (yes not directly) before other much more valid factors, like population density, pollution, social traditions and so on?

So yes, you in your own words, either directly or inadvertently contributed to my claim of anti-latino comments on your side.
 
PeteEU said:
Very simple....

Mexico City is one of the biggest cities on the planet and one of the most polluted. The amount respiratory problems among the population is considerably higher in Mexico City than elsewhere, and since flue especially hits people with respiratory problems hard, and that the present flue vaccine given to said people is ineffective.. then you have the perfect cocktail for many deaths.

But keep up with you conspiracy theories and rampant latino hate, it is entertaining after all.
Click to expand...
I don't see any conspiracy theories or rampant latino hate here. Perhaps you'd like to refrain from lying your ass off on this board, for a change?
 
American said:
I don't see any conspiracy theories or rampant latino hate here. Perhaps you'd like to refrain from lying your ass off on this board, for a change?
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I think that was a reference to the virus engineering part, though I don't see how it really went into the conspiracy section. At most, it skimmed by it.
 
We live within a capitalist economic system that encourages the mass production of livestock, entailing horrid, close-quarters living conditions for these animals. This creates an environment conducive to the mutation of viruses and increases the chance that these viruses will jump to humans.

So what do we do? We ignore the excessive agricultural system that creates this scenario and try to deal with its consequences. Treat the symptom and not the disease. Profit is profit though, I guess.
 
So has Pat Robertson came out and said this is God's wrath on Mexico for bringing drugs and crime on God's favourite country in the whole wide world - the US yet? :lol:
 
American said:
I don't see any conspiracy theories or rampant latino hate here. Perhaps you'd like to refrain from lying your ass off on this board, for a change?
Click to expand...

So you are saying that bringing up a right wing idea of Mexico being a failed state or near failed state in a discussion on a pandemic that happens to have started in Mexico (as far as we know), is some how relevant to the subject? How exactly is it relevant that drug gangs and the government are in a defacto war in the country? Have the drug gangs infected the population by breeding many chickens and pigs? Have the government forced people to live near or with pigs and chickens? How exactly is it relevant?

And since it is in no way relevant to a discussion on how and why Mexico is harder hit, then one can only surmise that the OP has some sort of "issue" with Mexico and hence latinos.. I mean he all but admits it by agreeing with the idiotic idea that Mexico is a near failed state....so I ask again, what is the relevance of the Meixcan drug war to the pandemic that has supposedly started in Mexico City?
 
GarzaUK said:
So has Pat Robertson came out and said this is God's wrath on Mexico for bringing drugs and crime on God's favourite country in the whole wide world - the US yet? :lol:
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Give it time.. and dont forget that the Mexicans are closet socialist who support Islamofasicm and such.. even though it has zero relevancy to the topic. Oh and it is all Clinton's and Obama's fault.
 
PeteEU said:
So you are saying that bringing up a right wing idea of Mexico being a failed state or near failed state in a discussion on a pandemic that happens to have started in Mexico (as far as we know), is some how relevant to the subject? How exactly is it relevant that drug gangs and the government are in a defacto war in the country? Have the drug gangs infected the population by breeding many chickens and pigs? Have the government forced people to live near or with pigs and chickens? How exactly is it relevant?

And since it is in no way relevant to a discussion on how and why Mexico is harder hit, then one can only surmise that the OP has some sort of "issue" with Mexico and hence latinos.. I mean he all but admits it by agreeing with the idiotic idea that Mexico is a near failed state....so I ask again, what is the relevance of the Meixcan drug war to the pandemic that has supposedly started in Mexico City?
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Do you mean "right wing" groups like Daily Kos??
The Mexican state will plunge into chaos within the next twenty four months.

This will certainly come to pass upon the death of the Cantarell oil field. The series of events will likely be hastened by the collapsing U.S. housing market reducing remittances from guest workers in the United States coupled with skyrocketing food costs due to the United States' ethanol binge.
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or do you mean "right wing" media like NPR?

Drug-related violence in Mexico is escalating at an alarming rate and threatening the government of President Felipe Calderon.
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