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Thread: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

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    SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    WASHINGTON, April 25 (Reuters) - A new and unusual strain of swine flu is likely widespread and impossible to contain at this point, experts agree.

    The H1N1 strain has killed at least 20 people and possibly 48 more in Mexico and has been confirmed in at least eight people in the United States, all of whom had mild illness.

    Probable cases also were found at a school in the New York City borough of Queens and experts at the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say they fully expect to find more cases. Here is why:

    * This new strain of influenza has shown it can spread easily from person to person.

    * It has been found in several places and among people who had no known contact. This suggests there is an unseen chain of infection and that the virus has been spreading quietly.

    * This can happen because respiratory illnesses are very common and doctors rarely test patients for flu. People could have had the swine virus and never known it.

    * At least in the United States, it has so far only been found in people who had mild illness, another factor that would have allowed it to spread undetected.

    * World Health Organization director Dr. Margaret Chan has said the new strain of H1N1 has the potential to become a pandemic strain because it does spread easily and does cause serious disease.

    * CDC experts note that while it is possible to contain an outbreak of disease that is in one limited area, once it is reported in widespread locations, the spread is impossible to control. (For full coverage of the flu outbreak, click on [nFLU]) (Editing by Xavier Briand)
    Reuters AlertNet - SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say


    MEXICO CITY/GENEVA (Reuters) - A new flu that has killed up to 68 people in Mexico could start a global epidemic, the World Health Organization warned on Saturday, as tests showed the strain might be spreading in the United States.

    Mexico's crowded capital, where most of the deaths happened and home to some 20 million people, hunkered down in fear of the swine flu.

    Tests confirmed that eight New York City schoolchildren had a type A influenza virus that was likely to be the swine flu, the city's health commissioner said. Kansas state health officials confirmed two cases of swine flu, CNN reported, adding to the original eight cases in the United States.

    Officials from WHO and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention helped Mexican health experts test hundreds of patients with flu symptoms for the never-before-seen virus.

    In Mexico City, parents canceled kids' parties, bars were closed and residents stocked up on DVDs as people stayed home for the weekend to avoid contamination.

    "I think it's worse than they're telling us," said 35-year-old Lidia Diaz, sniffling and wearing a surgical mask as she headed to a clinic in the capital.
    Flu pandemic concern grows with more U.S. cases | Reuters

    IOW they have no control over it, they don't really know what it is, its human to human transmitable, its fatal and non-fatal , and its spreading rapidly.

    Captain Trips

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    This is very worrisome. The CDC has been warning for some time that we're overdue for a pandemic, in which possibly millions could die. Billions more could be sickened, and disruption of vital services is possible.

    If you're not already prepared to last at least three weeks without resupply and without going out in public, better get prepped fast. When the general public starts to panic, the store shelves will empty quickly.

    Surgical-grade n95 masks and rubber gloves, and Lysol or bleach solution, would also be good.

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    Yes, this is scary. This outbreak seemed to just appear "out of the blue"...but it has been silently incubating for weeks in people. The WHO and the CDC have no idea where Ground Zero is for this virus...so they have no idea how many people were possibly infected. It is spreading like ripples across a pond.

    If this virus takes hold in the U.S. -- and if the govt. has to mandate that public places like libraries, schools, theatres, and such be closed...this will certainly cause a mass panic.

    These surgical-grade n95 masks...are they effective enough? Can they be purchased at medical supply stores?
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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    Quote Originally Posted by quatrotritikali View Post
    These surgical-grade n95 masks...are they effective enough? Can they be purchased at medical supply stores?
    "Dust masks" are a lower grade and will not do, btw. Yes they can be had online or in medical supply stores. Get the ones with the exhalation valves, the ones without them suck to wear. It's worth the extra cost.

    N100's would be better but they are FAR more expensive. Still and all, the best way not to get infected is stay home and don't go out in public or around other people, during the heavier "waves" of the pandemic. IIRC the hypothetical H5N1 pandemic was expected to come in three or four "waves", lasting 3-4 weeks each with a lull of two to six months in between "waves". The "wave" duration is based on how long it takes between getting infected and becoming infectious or symptomatic.

    Better be able to bunker up for at least a month at a time.

    G.

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    The articles contained no info. about who is susceptible and how lethal it is. It could be just the latest strain of the flu which is constantly changing anyway. (Which is why vaccines are made every year to combat new flu strains in the aging population.)

    If it's like any other flu virus, the most susceptible people will be the elderly and the very young or those with compromised immune systems. If it does reach pandemic proportions, it's not going to kill everyone, but those who are susceptible need to stay out of harms way.

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    Quote Originally Posted by Orius View Post
    The articles contained no info. about who is susceptible and how lethal it is. It could be just the latest strain of the flu which is constantly changing anyway. (Which is why vaccines are made every year to combat new flu strains in the aging population.)

    If it's like any other flu virus, the most susceptible people will be the elderly and the very young or those with compromised immune systems. If it does reach pandemic proportions, it's not going to kill everyone, but those who are susceptible need to stay out of harms way.
    FACTBOX: How swine flu spreads in humans | Reuters

    (Reuters) - A new strain of influenza is infecting people in Mexico and the United States and may have killed up to 60 people in Mexico, global health officials said on Friday.

    The CDC has analyzed samples of the H1N1 virus from some of the U.S. patients, all of whom have recovered, and said it is a never-before-seen mixture of viruses from swine, birds and humans.

    Here are some facts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention about how swine flu spreads in humans:

    * Swine flu viruses typically sicken pigs, not humans. Most cases occur when people come in contact with infected pigs or contaminated objects moving from people to pigs.

    * Pigs can catch human and avian or bird flu. When flu viruses from different species infect pigs, they can mix inside the pig and new, mixed viruses can emerge.

    * Pigs can pass mutated viruses back to humans and they can be passed from human to human. Transmission among humans is thought to occur in the same way as seasonal flu -- by touching something with flu viruses and then touching their mouth or nose, and through coughing or sneezing.

    * Symptoms of swine flu in people are similar to those of seasonal influenza -- sudden fever, coughing, muscle aches and extreme fatigue. This new strain also appears to cause more diarrhea and vomiting than normal flu.

    * Vaccines are available to be given to pigs to prevent swine influenza. There is no vaccine to protect humans from swine flu although the CDC is formulating one. The seasonal influenza vaccine may help provide partial protection against swine H3N2, but not swine H1N1 viruses, like the one circulating now.

    * People cannot catch swine flu from eating pork or pork products. Cooking pork to an internal temperature of 160 degrees Fahrenheit (71 degrees Celsius) kills the swine flu virus as it does other bacteria and viruses.

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    On the 10pm news here in Arkansas, it is being reported that this new swine flu outbreak has appeared in more US states. Confirmed cases are now being reported in California, Texas, Kansas, New York, Minnesota, and Massachusetts.

    New Virus Could Be Deadly
    ================================================== =====

    from Reuters: ""We are worried and because we are worried we are acting aggressively on a number of fronts," the CDC's Dr. Anne Schuchat told reporters. "The situation is serious."

    In Mexico, most of the dead were aged 25 to 45, a worrying sign because a hallmark of past pandemics has been high fatalities among healthy young adults.

    Global flu epidemic fear rises, more U.S. cases | U.S. | Reuters
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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    Quote Originally Posted by quatrotritikali View Post
    On the 10pm news here in Arkansas, it is being reported that this new swine flu outbreak has appeared in more US states. Confirmed cases are now being reported in California, Texas, Kansas, New York, Minnesota, and Massachusetts.
    Oh. Well, that's a little close to home. I'm not gonna freak out or anything, but thank you for the update.
    Quote Originally Posted by soccerboy22 View Post
    You guys are weird.

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    I researched a little bit more and discovered that most of the people who have died so far have in fact been healthy adults, not the elderly or infirm. If this spreads it could become a real crisis.

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    Re: SNAP ANALYSIS-New swine flu likely widespread, experts say

    Quote Originally Posted by Orius View Post
    I researched a little bit more and discovered that most of the people who have died so far have in fact been healthy adults, not the elderly or infirm. If this spreads it could become a real crisis.
    Key word here is IF. While sensible precautions like extra attention to hand-washing and other aspects of daily hygiene are appropriate, this is not yet a repeat of the Spanish Influenza pandemic of 1918-1919, or even the 1968-69 swine flu pandemic. This isn't even on a par with the SARS outbreak of recent memory. Not yet; with luck, it will not reach anything like those levels.

    It's worrisome, but not yet scary.

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